What if the Union had been able to capture Savannah, Vicksburg, and Charleston in 1862? (And Mobile and Shreveport soon after.)
(With or without Lee as the head of the Union, though works best with him at the head to not speed up the war too much since he’d amor likely camp in Richmond once taken. Joseph E. Johnston opposing, since Johnston’s the only Confederate who’d be willing to trade land for breathing room rather than do a suicide charge/rabid hold of the city until the Union crushed the ANV to the point where the answer to the question is “Immediate Union victory”.)
For context, before leasing the ANV, Lee was responsible for the setting up the defense in Savannah, which prevented the city from being taken until Sherman marched through Georgia.
There’s this thread: which mentions that after the fall of New Orleans, Confederates had the option of sending the guns of the city to either Vicksburg or Mobile, Alabama. IOTL, they chose the former, so when Brigadier General Thomas Williams tried to take the city on 18 May 1862, he didn’t have the forces necessary to take it. ITTL, the guns go to Mobile, and Williams takes the city. That means, assuming history rhymes, that Grant’s Vicksburg will be at Mobile, depriving the Confederacy of two major ports a year ahead of schedule each.
More for morale reasons, the capture of Charleston (South Carolina) at the Battle of James Island (or the Battle of Secessionville) would be a massive blow to the city (and also save a lot of it from destruction rather than serve as a symbol of Davis ‘ pride allowing him to condemn a city to destruction rather than let it surrender.
If this moves up the Red River campaign (perhaps as a joint effort between Grant going to take Mobile, and Sherman to take Atlanta and link up with Union held Savannah, with Banks able to take Shreveport by late 1862-early 1863), how bad is the Confederacy screwed, especially supply-wise? Even assuming that these city captures are mostly bloodless so there’s still Confederate forces roaming around, able to do battle at any second.
(Are there any other Southern cities that had earlier capture attempts IOTL?) (Seeing Davis’ obsession with glorious, honorable battle and being able to knock out the Union in a big fight, I don’t think he’ll actually see the loss of these cities as a problem, other than Charleston, at least until the supply problem bites.)