I was honest hoping you would avert it from happening. Since it's really hard to read given what's happening in Ukraine right now.
The New Order: A Successful Selim III
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Unfortunately it would probably take a big Russian screw to kick them out of Circassia, and I feel like that's something I can't write plausibly with the wider scenario I have in mind.
Would that mean having a more placated Russia\One that shifts it's focus away from The Balkans? If the Russians can avoid doing useless adventures in the region the situation for the Ottomans would be way better than OTL since it was the various wars and independence movements that severely weakened the empire in internal and external ways.
A stronger OE means Russia will have fewer opportunities to stir things up in the Balkans, which in turn means fewer wars between them.
🤣🤣🤣 not the first time in history when cross dressing saved Someone's life.
Ahem so Janissaries are gone, bye bye, Tata. Will Selim and co Test their new army against Russia? But I suppose You're not gonna have Napoleon win.
My thinking will be re-establishing rule over their Mediterranean holdings.
I agree with this, also if some deal can be reached for the Straits then I don't think that Russia should have reason to stir up trouble, even more so since they'll have far easier target's in Persia, Qing and will be busy with great game with the British over central Asia.
But otherwise regarding diplomatic policy (if you plan for Napoleon to lose), I would advise that Ottomans side with the coalition against Napoleon and gain the seat at Vienna conference, plus long peace that followed would be quite useful for the Ottomans that are in process of reformation and consolidation (peace was interrupted by Greek revolution, but I doubt that will happen with stronger and more prosperous Ottoman empire).
Early on Serbs were quite happy with Selims reforms and only rebelled against Janissaries in Sultans name, later that warped in independence war. So technically as long as Janissaries are butterflied and some limited autonomy is guaranteed (like what Selim did otl) then there shouldn't be reason for rebellion. What works for Serbs will probably work for other South Slavic groups.
How Ottomans handle the Balkans will all in all definitely be interesting.
Otherwise I must point out that while gaining Crimea seems like an overreach some war, or another will have to happen to revoke Russian right to protection of Christians in Ottoman empire. But once again if Ottomans gain seat at Vienna they might be able to insist on revoking those titles diplomatically.
Having well rested and functioning armies at the end of Napoleonic wars would of course help Ottoman cause, of course these armies should be tested and bloodied (maybe against Iliryan provinces?).
All in all definitely good TL and subscribed.
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How about the Ottomans promoting "Pan-Turkism" in central Asia as a parallel to Russia's OTL "Pan-slavism".
Sacer Bubonicus
Banned
Funnily enough, at this point the first country to be threatened by this would actually be Iran, because Iran has historically had prominent Azeri and Turkmen communities, and about half of historical Azerbaijan is part of Iran today.
Problem is that Russia was generally quite successful in conquering and pacifing the region, plus British also had dibs in the region as well, so the best option would generally be to let it be.
Generally I don't see the reason to pick a fight with Russia beyond necessary, while otl it was main Ottoman geopolitical enemy (arguably only due to geographical proximity of the Balkans and wish to get Constantinople ,other powers certainly got better and bigger slices of the pie) picture changes considerably with stronger Ottoman empire that is able to fight of Russia on its own (Balkan being close to the center of Ottoman power and control of straits becomes advantage here) .
For one Austria doesn't generally have a valid reason to break of its alliance with Russia as decline of Ottoman empire in the Balkans is what caused the break between the two (remember Austria wanted to expand in same region). On second hand stronger Ottoman empire means better Ottoman navy that might challenge British and others dominance in Med. Especially if suez canal is still created (a lucrative piece of the world that everyone would want), then there is France which expanded in Algeria otl, Italy etc.
Generally stronger Ottoman empire won't really be short of potential enemies and will be subject to great powers politics so i wouldn't advise picking a fight where there won't be apparent gain.
For example what does Ottoman empire hopes to gain in CA? How does it plan to enforce its goals there? Etc. Plus remember that empire is ruling over multi ethnic lands in which Turks are but a minority, if anything Ottoman empire won't be promoting Pan Turkism for the same reason Austria didn't promote pan Germanism (even more so because opposed to Austria and more similarly to Russia in the Balkans Ottomans won't gain much from such ideology ).
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in order for the ottomans to receive a seat at the eventual congress of vienna it would be interesting if napoleon campaigned in the balkans during the coalition wars to create a kingdom of greece, so we see the ottoman troops involved for more years and also the coordination with the allies, as well as the Yemeni and Saud wars
Sacer Bubonicus
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One of the things this leads to is that, without Austria being Russia's biggest competitor over the Balkans, the breakdown of any potential Dreikaiserbund is much less certain and, if it does break down, it could potentially be left with an Austria-Russia alliance instead of Prussia-Austria as IOTL, which would have further ramifications for the pattern of European alliances in the 19th century.
What about an intervention in the Barbary states to protect them from European conquest. Would that be more feasible?
Officially they are Ottoman protectorates , so yea Ottoman empire is more, or less committed to protecting them (and establishing Sultans authority there like in Egypt).
But if France/Napoleon is defeated and with Italy disunified there shouldn't be any European attempt to colonize those for some time.
But France did invade Ageria in 1830s and even with modernization i don't believe that they should be able to stop that (though they should be able to use the chance to establish further Sultans rule in Tripolia and Tunisia).
Though then again if there's some conflict between Prussia and France like in otl then Ottomans could use the chance to reconquer the territory.
One thing I want to see here is an independent construction of Ottoman Suez canal. Maybe it won't be straight cut like OTL canal. Maybe it will be an improved version of Pharaoh's canal. But this eventually brings the Ottomans back in the Indian ocean trade as the most prominent player. Suddenly all viable routes to Europe become obsolete due to this short cut and will give sublime porte quite the clout in European politics.
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I that is three decades worth of time to reform and modernize their infrastructure and navy. Not to mention the fact that the conquest of Algeria was very slow and costly affair for France thanks to the excellent leadership of the beyliks
French conquest of Algeria isn't set in stone AFAIK if I remember correctly initially expedition goal wasn't intended as a conquest but just a show of force to boost popular support in France until the July revolution happened with the new leadership distrusting the army and wanting to keep them away from France . And even then the conquest took time and faced considerable resistance from the locals ottoman support could further worsen thing for France .
Stronger Ottoman could be able to dissuade France diplomatically from conquering the place , especially since with no Muhammed Ali Egypt to support and the Ottoman being "stronger" the French could consider theirs good relationship with the ottoman to be far more important to preserve , than the slow and expensive conquest of a mountainous tribal hostile "backwater" . I don't think the Ottoman could really stop military the French if they really committed to it but they may be able to dissuade them in this tl
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^agree with the points above, and would like to add that with better Ottoman control over Egypt they could also assert more control over the other North African ('Barbary') beyliks and integrate them more fully into the Ottoman Empire, and if the empire is stronger overall that would dissuade France, Italy or other Europeans from attempting to colonise North Africa.
I agree with that , if France puts its mind to it they probably could win the war but stronger Ottomans will probably dissuade them from such actions as they could be used as an ally against Austria, or Russia, so France won't seek to offend them.
Plus there still easier target in form of Morocco , for show of Force and as an outlet for internal power struggle its far easier target than the Ottoman Algeria.
All of this discussion over French Algeria has made me realize that the colonization of Africa would go VERY differently from OTL since the Ottoman's not only have affirmed control and influence over Northern Africa, they would be more than willing to back Native states in the Sahelian region against the encroaching European powers.