Could the Inca play off the Europeans?

[EMT]

Assuming that the Inca manage to repel the first attempts by the Spanish through your POD of choice that results in a vastly different confrontation between them:

A) Huayna Capac or Ninan Cuyochi don't die from smallpox
B) Huascar dies from smallpox
C) Atahualpa dies from smallpox
D) Atahualpa approaches the Spanish incursion with immediate hostility
E) Other

From this point onward, you've got a Spanish Empire that is interested in the Inca's wealth, somewhat hostile, but also considers them to be a tougher nut to crack than the Mesoamericans were.

Would it be plausible for the Inca to come into contact with other Europeans such as the English or the Portuguese, or even a more a diplomatic attempt by the Spanish after their failed military effort that sees them exchanging gold and silver for firearms? Such an exchange would quickly prove to be incredibly lucrative and could see much interest by Western Europeans in establishing resupply colonies on the eastern coasts of South America to facilitate trade with the Inca while ensuring their survival against further Spanish aggression.

It would also see the diffusion of goods and ideas between the Andean and Western world much earlier than it historically occurred. Notably, ships for the Inca and quinine for the Europeans, something the Portuguese especially would be very interested in which could prove to be a third pillar of Incan-European commerce.

Other notable goods that would spread to the world faster without Spanish mercantilism are potatoes and maize, as well as easily accessible reserves of copper, albeit its value in the era relative to gold and quinine is questionable and may prove to be something more in demand in a later era of industry.

The Inca are also liable to steal away individuals through bribery that can actually build local industries for firearms, much the same way as they hijacked Chimu naval knowledge which could see a small merchant community building in major Incan cities that act as facilitators of pre-industrial Incan firearms production, especially once the iron of the Atacama Desert is discovered.

Finally, the European fascination with China is likely to reach the Inca due to their position on the Pacific Ocean which could see the Inca themselves attempting voyages to China using adopted European seafaring technology. Again noting that the Inca were notably quick to latch on to the innovations of others with what few examples we have.

How do other more knowledgeable members view this scenario?

 

[twovultures]

It is possible, but difficult. They Inca could trade with the Portuguese as well as the Spanish, but The Portuguese aren't in a good geographic position to aid the Inca against them. Then again, maybe they don't have to be-if they're willing to trade cannons for gold, and perhaps give a little military advice (maybe some ex-soldier Jesuits could help with this) then the Inca will have some truly powerful tools with which to resist conquest.

Depending on how history goes, you could get an alternate Francis Drake opening up trade with the Inca, or a French explorer doing the same from France Antarctique. The more European powers, the better-that creates more conflict between them that the Inca can exploit.

 

[M79]

First the task is keeping a coherent state together following essentially a worse version of the Black Death but with 90+% fatality. If they can survive that alone they ate off to a good start. They might blunder across germ theory as a consequence and have some earlier advances in medicine. Either way, 6 million shrinks to half a million or so, maybe a bit more, and rebuilding what they have will be tough. Inca reorganization might also prove attractive to other native populations who bring their own traditions to bear. If the Inka can succeed at making steel then they have numbers on their side and might have a fighting chance. Otherwise the gold and greed for it makes their long-term prospects poor. OTL Brazil is also likely to see some colonization as is OTL Argentina but how far the Inks could go is anyone's guess. They might, under the wrong set of circumstances, either last a bit longer or federate OTL Latin America and parts of North America into a native-controlled state running from the Straits of Magellan to between 40 and 54 degrees latitude.

 

[EMT]

One thought that came to me is that the Portuguese were in India by 1498, and the trip to somewhere such as Valparaiso or Callao(I know these ports don't quite exist yet, but they are likely to pop up sooner than later due to the trade flow) is likely shorter than the trip from Lisbon to Goa, but comes with the promise of physical gold and silver for firearms. So it'd be a matter of discovering the profits that are waiting to be had, not so much reaching it. It's also early enough that colonies on the eastern seaboard of South America are up for grabs for just about anybody with the means to seize that land. But I imagine that interest in trade with the Inca once the cat is out of the bag would be massive, not just from the perspective of traders but at a strategic level by the monarchs and princes of Europe which would see a literal flow of gold straight into their treasuries; a lot less Incan gold is finding its way to China when there's a competitive demand for that gold and silver.

Speaking of colonies, by far the best real estate in such a scenario would be Buenos Aires, whoever controls it would dominate trade with the Inca. The best case scenario for both the Inca and latecomers to the trade game would be the Inca themselves settling Buenos Aires, leaving it as the largest trade port of the Inca from which the gold and silver can easily flow downriver to. Assuming a European power ends up controlling it, then it's likely Argentina is settled and populated far more early than IOTL. The least populous result being a Dutch colony if the wealth of the Netherlands remains a constant ITTL, and which would also likely result in the Inca controlling all the lands down the rivers except for Buenos Aires itself, with the city likely having a notable population of Quechua speakers and the Dutch remaining primarily as a large trading community. The inverse scenario likely being a Portuguese colony, which would see the border between Portuguese and Quechua speakers much farther up river and whatever Quechua speakers existed at some point in the Portuguese Rio Da Prata colony marrying into the Portuguese-speaking populace.

Either way, a large number of Europeans are making their way to the Incan Empire either as traders or aspiring miners; Potosi's population boom is likely to occur, but with a lot less death involved.

EDIT: One thing to keep in mind is that the 90% death rates are likely to be far lower if there is no Incan Civil War. Reportedly, the two Sapa Inca contenders were throwing about 100,000+ man armies up and down the Andes, and it isn't hard to imagine what that did to the diffusion of disease.

 

[NiceMonster42]

Without the smallpox, I think Inca could actually have a decent chance of defeating the invasion. The conquistadors were originally a small band, without native allies like in the case of the Aztecs (and we have to remember, in 1519 the Aztecs defeated the Spanish outside Tenochtitlan and it took until 1521 for the Aztec Triple Alliance to fall).

 

[lordapocalipsis]

Asuming, the Civil war is avoided, and the spanish asvances i delayed more years, giving enough time to others europeans countries to arrive; it could have worked, giving time to strength the controll over all the tibus conquered by the incas, and make them link to the Inca society

 

[atheismo]

The Incas very nearly pulled something like that off as it is.

When Diego Almagro returned from his expedition to conquer the southern reaches of the Incan Empire (Chile, etc.), he returned to find that Manco Inca had risen in revolt against the Spaniards left behind. He attempted to treat with Manco to try to loosen Pizarro's hold on the rich provinces of Peru, but failed. Had Manco been more receptive, and less inclined to poor military choices, it's not impossible that some sort of accomodation could have been reached.

As it was, the Incas survived on until 1572 when the Spanish finally destroyed their last stronghold at Vilcabamba.

 

[lordapocalipsis]

The Incas very nearly pulled something like that off as it is.

When Diego Almagro returned from his expedition to conquer the southern reaches of the Incan Empire (Chile, etc.), he returned to find that Manco Inca had risen in revolt against the Spaniards left behind. He attempted to treat with Manco to try to loosen Pizarro's hold on the rich provinces of Peru, but failed. Had Manco been more receptive, and less inclined to poor military choices, it's not impossible that some sort of accomodation could have been reached.

As it was, the Incas survived on until 1572 when the Spanish finally destroyed their last stronghold at Vilcabamba.

that is where last members of Inca bloodline die, i think if Mnco Inca somehow may be ablte to resist more, he could have conquer Lima an expulse spanirads, besides the already reconqured Cuzco

 

[Ellie]

Perhaps the English use them as a method to counter Spanish hegemony of the Americas, if you get the English to have a stronger presence in (Northern/Eastern) South America. The English were not so powerful in the 1500's so they could supply the Inca and trade with them instead of conquering them.

 

[othyrsyde]

First the task is keeping a coherent state together following essentially a worse version of the Black Death but with 90+% fatality.

The pandemics didn't wipe out 90% of the population. The 90% population drop was one that is a hemispheric wide drop, not one that effected every single area evenly, and it also wasn't solely from diseases or within the first years of contact. This came about over centuries from multiple waves of diseases, war, displacement, famine, being overworked, and ethnic identity lost (particularly in Latin America where Natives would deliberately try to free themselves from slavery by marrying into the mestizo and African populations - and yes, early in the colonial period, especially on the mainland, assimilated Africans held a higher social status as craftsmen and soldiers). A significant, if not the majority of mainland Latin American populations are primarily of indigenous descent. Even in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico have lots of indigenous ancestry, and some cultural survival and revival too.

 

[Inquisitor Tolkien]

The pandemics didn't wipe out 90% of the population. The 90% population drop was one that is a hemispheric wide drop, not one that effected every single area evenly, and it also wasn't solely from diseases or within the first years of contact. This came about over centuries from multiple waves of diseases, war, displacement, famine, being overworked, and ethnic identity lost (particularly in Latin America where Natives would deliberately try to free themselves from slavery by marrying into the mestizo and African populations - and yes, early in the colonial period, especially on the mainland, assimilated Africans held a higher social status as craftsmen and soldiers). A significant, if not the majority of mainland Latin American populations are primarily of indigenous descent. Even in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico have lots of indigenous ancestry, and some cultural survival and revival too.

Indeed. 90% of the population did not die of disease in a few years, and the "Guns, Germs, and Steel" thesis where this stems from is flawed at its core.

As it was, population loss from disease in the Andes was far slower per year than it was in the Mexico, iirc it was single digits (~2-5% per year, depending on altitude), due to a combination of factors; slower transmission, a wider degree of climatic variation, and a stronger immune resistance. It was still a major loss in population, but nowhere near 90%, and the effects were, most significantly, gradual. In neither Mexico nor in the Andes was the population loss from disease so drastic that society completely collapsed.


The Incas were, in comparison to the Aztecs (who, due to the political structure of the region and of their hegemony, were probably doomed), in a significantly better position to resist European encroachment. Butterfly away the succession war which was happening at a most inopportune time and the absurd amounts of luck Pizarro had, and the Incans survive first contact and are likely to reform and persist.

1) Politically, the Incas were not at the heart of a loose tributary empire of city states based on near constant war, with powerful enemies that hate you and were looking to destroy you. That isn't to say that the Incan vassals wouldn't rebel, but it was far less likely for the Spanish to find powerful native allies which, as in Mexico, were critical for their success. Remove the succession crisis and temporary Incan weakness and the various vassal-states which eventually pledged help to the Spanish would be terribly unlikely.

2) Geographically, the Andes are significantly more difficult to take. The Mapuche and their successes in the Arauco War is telling.

3) Religious reasons. Lack of human sacrifice as a central tenet of their religion that is necessary to keep the world running etc, do wonders for relations with European powers.