While access to the Mississippi is absolutely crucial, annexing half the CSA is a great way for a permanent war of resistance against the United States; Reconstruction didn’t go well and that was without fifty years of drift and the project being one of reuniting a shorn land
They never had a Reconstruction, so they have no idea. I'm also less pessimistic than you about the long-term prospects for forcing those states into line, especially as the post-war Confederacy is going to have a standard of living that's maybe half what the US has before too long.

And from an OTL perspective, Versailles failed even more miserably than Reconstruction, so that model's no better.
 
They never had a Reconstruction, so they have no idea. I'm also less pessimistic than you about the long-term prospects for forcing those states into line, especially as the post-war Confederacy is going to have a standard of living that's maybe half what the US has before too long.

And from an OTL perspective, Versailles failed even more miserably than Reconstruction, so that model's no better.
Why annex them and go through all the trouble of re-building and re-integrating a blasted, broken country when you can just get unfettered access to the Mississippi forever? If the CSA tries anything just threaten to bomb Memphis or NOLA and call it a day.
 
Why annex them and go through all the trouble of re-building and re-integrating a blasted, broken country when you can just get unfettered access to the Mississippi forever? If the CSA tries anything just threaten to bomb Memphis or NOLA and call it a day.
That'd be the Versailles Model. Good luck sustaining it.
 
That'd be the Versailles Model. Good luck sustaining it.
So continuing your analogy to its conclusion France should have just annexed half of Germany and then "flooded" the Rhineland and Bavaria with French colonists?

That's somehow more sustainable than keeping under your thumb a less populous, poorer country that needs to rebuild basically everything from Atlanta/Birmingham/Jackson on north?

The USA in 1917 is significantly larger, richer, and more powerful compared to the CSA than the UK/France were to Germany in 1919. Versailles failed because it was both painful enough to piss off basically every German (regardless of ideology) while also being lenient enough to allow them to actually rebuild. Plus, Germany in 1919 had advantages that the CSA won't have here - a larger, far more educated population and significant industry.
 
That'd be the Versailles Model. Good luck sustaining it.

Your model is equally unsustainable if not more so. Annexing those territories incorporates millions of angry Confedeates into the Union - a people who have proven to be highly nationalistic and who view the Union as an existential threat to their own existence. Furthermore, it opens up questions about what to do with them - you can't really grant them citizenship and voting rights (because they would undermine whatever government is being set up) but you also really can't deny them citizenship either as that runs up against the constitution and would create a body of angry second class citizens. Yes, you could try to swamp them out with other peoples - but that's assuming you'd find millions of Americans who want to move into the blasted hellscape that is those states - especially when you know there would be active resistance from the Confederates there who would have no problem lashing out against the carpet-baggers - and that's doubtful. Can you send in the army to restore control? Of course, but that just creates further bad press to discourage other migrants. So, really, its a lose/lose scenerio - you end up with two states full of angry locals, a constant military occupation, plus get left holding the bag for trying to rebuild the region, and efforts to populate them with loyal citizens is always going to be hampered. Not a good scenerio in the least.
 
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So continuing your analogy to its conclusion France should have just annexed half of Germany and then "flooded" the Rhineland and Bavaria with French colonists?

That's somehow more sustainable than keeping under your thumb a less populous, poorer country that needs to rebuild basically everything from Atlanta/Birmingham/Jackson on north?

The USA in 1917 is significantly larger, richer, and more powerful compared to the CSA than the UK/France were to Germany in 1919. Versailles failed because it was both painful enough to piss off basically every German (regardless of ideology) while also being lenient enough to allow them to actually rebuild. Plus, Germany in 1919 had advantages that the CSA won't have here - a larger, far more educated population and significant industry.

Your model is equally unsustainable if not more so. Annexing those territories incorporates millions of angry Confedeates into the Union - a people who have proven to be highly nationalistic and who view the Union as an existential threat to their own existence. Furthermore, it opens up questions about what to do with them - you can't really grant them citizenship and voting rights (because they would undermine whatever government is being set up) but you also really can't deny them citizenship either as that runs up against the constitution and would create a body of angry second class citizens. Yes, you could try to swamp them out with other peoples - but that's assuming you'd find millions of Americans who want to move into the blasted hellscape that is those states - especially when you know there would be active resistance from the Confederates there who would have no problem lashing out against the carpet-baggers - and that's doubtful. Can you send in the army to restore control? Of course, but that just creates further bad press to discourage other migrants. So, really, its a lose/lose scenerio - you end up with two states full of angry locals, a constant military occupation, plus get left holding the bag for trying to rebuild the region, and efforts to populate them with loyal citizens is always going to be hampered. Not a good scenerio in the least.

This is the era of ethnic cleansing and the states in question have either significant Unionist populations that are likely still Unionist a generation and a half later (TN, KY), or are half African American at this time (LA). AR can be made majority-black via population exchange with MS and LA's demographics shored up in the same way.

It's really not going to be as difficult as you all envision to hold onto them.

Doing so will also aid the goal of turning the rest of the CSA into a satrap.

Anyway, not my TL to direct, but dismissing the option as impossible is... odd, given what we know happened at the end of WWI IOTL, both in the West with the failure of Versailles and in the East with the creation of a great many demographic facts on the ground which have proven largely durable since.

It's even odder to dismiss the notion that TTL's American leadership wouldn't be thinking exactly along these lines, because it's how *everyone* thought back then!
 
So continuing your analogy to its conclusion France should have just annexed half of Germany and then "flooded" the Rhineland and Bavaria with French colonists?

That's somehow more sustainable than keeping under your thumb a less populous, poorer country that needs to rebuild basically everything from Atlanta/Birmingham/Jackson on north?

The USA in 1917 is significantly larger, richer, and more powerful compared to the CSA than the UK/France were to Germany in 1919. Versailles failed because it was both painful enough to piss off basically every German (regardless of ideology) while also being lenient enough to allow them to actually rebuild. Plus, Germany in 1919 had advantages that the CSA won't have here - a larger, far more educated population and significant industry.
Your model is equally unsustainable if not more so. Annexing those territories incorporates millions of angry Confedeates into the Union - a people who have proven to be highly nationalistic and who view the Union as an existential threat to their own existence. Furthermore, it opens up questions about what to do with them - you can't really grant them citizenship and voting rights (because they would undermine whatever government is being set up) but you also really can't deny them citizenship either as that runs up against the constitution and would create a body of angry second class citizens. Yes, you could try to swamp them out with other peoples - but that's assuming you'd find millions of Americans who want to move into the blasted hellscape that is those states - especially when you know there would be active resistance from the Confederates there who would have no problem lashing out against the carpet-baggers - and that's doubtful. Can you send in the army to restore control? Of course, but that just creates further bad press to discourage other migrants. So, really, its a lose/lose scenerio - you end up with two states full of angry locals, a constant military occupation, plus get left holding the bag for trying to rebuild the region, and efforts to populate them with loyal citizens is always going to be hampered. Not a good scenerio in the least.
I'm entirely with these two comments. While @Aged_Urbanist is correct that this was the era in which imperialism reigned supreme, there's imperialism and there's feasibly annexing half of enemy territory rather than simply just grinding them into dust and sticking them with the bill.
This is the era of ethnic cleansing and the states in question have either significant Unionist populations that are likely still Unionist a generation and a half later (TN, KY), or are half African American at this time (LA). AR can be made majority-black via population exchange with MS and LA's demographics shored up in the same way.

It's really not going to be as difficult as you all envision to hold onto them.

Doing so will also aid the goal of turning the rest of the CSA into a satrap.

Anyway, not my TL to direct, but dismissing the option as impossible is... odd, given what we know happened at the end of WWI IOTL, both in the West with the failure of Versailles and in the East with the creation of a great many demographic facts on the ground which have proven largely durable since.

It's even odder to dismiss the notion that TTL's American leadership wouldn't be thinking exactly along these lines, because it's how *everyone* thought back then!
Most of those Unionists decamped for Northern pastures as early as the 1870s or just came around to the Confederacy after fifty years of drift (they were loyal to their states first and foremost back then, after all); unlike the 1860s ACW, by this point in time there's really not much of a Union-sympathizing contingent in any of those states.
How's the Brazilian Summer offensive going on btw?
The major "Summer Offensive" was 1914-15 but I know what you're referring to - that'll in fact be the subject of the next update!
 
War in the Cone
"...leaving their despondent families' embraces after the Christmas holidays, both rugged veterans of the front and fresh-faced recruits across Brazil suddenly dug in their heels and refused to return to duty, at one mustering camp even going so far as to seize their weapons. "Let us go home!" and "We are prisoners, not soldiers!" were battle cries of the exhausted, terrified young men who it was increasingly the view of much of the Brazilian political establishment were being fed into the maw of war to satisfy Fonseca's ego and ideological obsession with Argentina.

The Revolt of the Recruits, also known as the New Years Mutiny, occurred roughly between December 27, 1915 and January 4, 1916. At its peak on the 29th, as many as twenty thousand men returning to the front from holiday or headed there for the first time after conscription stood arm-in-arm and denounced Fonseca personally and specifically. As news of this spread, mutinies began to spread across the front and logistics camps in Mesopotamia. Concordia and Uruguiana, probably the two most important railheads for troops being routed into Argentine territory, erupted in rioting as soldiers, including field nurses and doctors, either threw their guns on the ground and dared military officers to shoot them or got into firefights with officers themselves.

The causes of the mass mutiny of soldiers across southern Brazil and the occupied territories is a subject of considerable debate but the continuously delayed next offensive across the Parana was certainly one of them; for much of Brazilian society, particularly elites, it wasn't clear what some more planes from CASD would do that had not been done before. Supplies could flow relatively freely to Argentina over the Andes or around the Horn now, and Mexico was no longer a belligerent to distract the United States, and the rumored expediting of dispatching an expeditionary force to Argentina had had its intended effect on Brazilian military planners.

Some academics, particularly of the Integralist school, were persuaded of the idea of a conspiracy against Fonseca, which depending on which variant of Integralism one followed was either the correct option or a betrayal of Holy Brazil. It was generals of the Renovator faction such as Klinger and Tavora who were largely in charge of training both officers and recruits, and it was they who benefited most from Fonseca's fall from grace and power - while they almost certainly did not organize the entire mutiny, it is today broadly accepted that they encouraged and fanned contempt for the Chief of the Army amongst the enlisted ranks. Beyond the perhaps open plotting and scheming of those two, however, Fonseca's rapid political demise in January of 1916 was simply pure opportunism for men who had been previously paralyzed by collective inaction.

Hermes da Fonseca had long been protected by a cult of personality he had built around himself that actually had few if any members; his perceived power had been just that, perceived. He had created an illusion, through force of charisma and demagogy, that he and he alone represented the ambitions of the Brazilian Army and that he was the noble sword of the Brazilian people and Catholic Church in its crusade against secularism, radicalism, and republicanism. [1] Politicians were persuaded that he would destroy careers if not carry out a putsch if he was not sated, and his use of a secret police outside of the control of the government to silence opposition indeed suggested as much. The Revolt of the Recruits thus demonstrated once and for all that what many were beginning to suspect was true - the gallant knight of conservative Brazil was wearing no armor.

Dom Agosto Leopoldo, the Emperor's cousin and Chief of the Navy, denounced Fonseca in a speech before Parliament on January 5, a loaded date as it was the 16th anniversary of the death of Pedro III, and a day after the worst of the violence had been pacified, even if small scattered mutinies endured. This on its own was not particularly strange, as the Prince-Admiral had never been particularly afraid to condemn the general publicly, but the words he used were stronger than ever, referring to Fonseca as a "charlatan," who had "not just failed the Emperor but betrayed the confidence of the Brazilian people." Dom Agosto concluded his remarks, which were met with applause, by stating, "All that is left to do that is gentlemanly would be to resign, and perhaps even accept exile."

Normally, Fonseca could have weathered such a storm, especially since the General Staff was one of the few places where he had some actual loyalists on hand. But the political situation had deteriorated for him dramatically over the past several months, with his promised offensive now thrice delayed, his ally Pinheiro Machado in the ground, and the following government having lasted all of two months under Barbosa. Emperor Luis I was exhausted and tired of Fonseca's domineering antics and his new Prime Minister Pessoa, having spent about as much time in the job now as Barbosa, was eager to make his mark in government early. On January 6, Pessoa gathered his cabinet to review the aftermath of the Mutiny and agreed with the assessment of Foreign Minister Lauro Muller that "discipline and morale within the Army is now nonexistent," Fonseca protested, but Pessoa pointedly asked him to provide "hard evidence if you are to name Dom Lauro a liar." Fonseca, perhaps for the first time in his meteoric career, slumped in his chair, stewing, for he had little to say.

The next day, January 7, Luis I called upon Pessoa and asked if he retained confidence in the Chief of the Army and Minister of Defense; Pessoa replied that he did not, and by the end of the day both men had separately requested Fonseca's resignation, with it clear that it was a courtesy to avoid the destabilizing spectacle of his sacking. After five and a half tumultuous, dangerous years atop Brazil's military, all it took were thousands of recruits declaring that they refused to die for him for Fonseca's reign to end. Isidoro Dias Lopes, one of the capable general from the front, was immediately tapped as his replacement, and Dias Lopes immediately handed Pessoa his assessment that Brazil was unlikely to gain more from the war than it already had and stood the risk of simply killing more men and losing more naval assets if it continued, with which Pessoa, despite his hardline political views and instincts, reluctantly agreed with. In that sense, the hundreds of recruits killed during the Mutiny saved thousands of their countrymen's lives through their sacrifice.

The Revolt of the Recruits was historically significant - it led directly to the end of the war with Argentina, as we will discuss in the next chapter, but it also proved to be a hugely controversial moment that immediately polarized politics. It left supporters of Fonseca deeply embittered and feeling betrayed, wondering if the war had been for nothing (especially considering that Uruguay had been seized for the Blancos in the first weeks of the war), while radicals and socialists saw how fragile the Brazilian state was to mass action and political violence. More than anything, though, it left a lasting impression on the Integralists, who saw the dispute not as one of nationalism or anti-progressivism but rather that of a "weak state," a "mongrelized" people who lacked a unifying cause to fight around for their motherland and who needed something to unite them and, of course, discipline them into becoming an actual world power rather than the embarrassing display they had put on since the Battle of the River Plate two years earlier..."

- War in the Cone

[1] Our many Brazilian readers will note the irony of this
 
"Let us go home!" and "We are prisoners, not soldiers!" were battle cries of the exhausted, terrified young men who it was increasingly the view of much of the Brazilian political establishment were being fed into the maw of war to satisfy Fonseca's ego and ideological obsession with Argentina.

"Never hate your enemies, it affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
 
So we've got our "Kiel" and "Vittoria Mutilata/ Dolchstoßlegende". Now I wonder when the "Nazis" take over.
And How many US troops are there in South America atm?
 
So we've got our "Kiel" and "Vittoria Mutilata/ Dolchstoßlegende". Now I wonder when the "Nazis" take over.
And How many US troops are there in South America atm?
Maybe a division or two, I think, in Argentina at least? Since Lima was in June most of the weight of the AEF in Peru/Chile is probably gone, primarily to Centro, so maybe another 5-6k beyond the support troops near BA
 
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