The Dukes of Fernau, for now.
Thanks for responding all the same!
I'm sure I could spend forty minutes semi-randomly clicking through wikipedia ancestry charts and could find a suitable house and daughter. But there are people on this site who have suggestions off the top of their heads, if they happen by. I'm just not sure which people in this instance.
Catamaran are easier to build, use fewer materials, more stable, and have a swallower draft, meaning they can sail on lower depth, a benefit in a shallow sea like the Baltic or if you want to sail up rivers. It can also sail faster.
The main problem is greater water resistance meaning it takes longer to get up in speed, even if it’s faster. But more important it have lower volume and height, which means it can have less cargo or cannons than a monohull ship.
It‘s a good choice for a country with limited access to timber and no a limited naval tradition, and can’t afford to many cannons. Military it will likely fill the same niche as the gun “yawl” or gunboat. A small maneuverable ship with one major cannon a few smaller ones.
These ships won’t be useful against a true naval force, but if the main Swedish navy is distracted by the Danish, Dutch or English one, it will deal well against Swedish lighter vessels like galleys, gunboats etc or to besiege Swedish cities in Livonia and Estonia.
A Swedish gun yawl from the late 18th century. It’s not a very powerful ship, but it’s made for dealing with merchants and naval transport, and unlucky warship who have entered too shallow waters. It’s incredible cheap to build and maintain. Sweden developed their ”gunboat” doctrine in the later part of the 18th century as a way to deal with the Russians. It’s naval doctrine of weaknesses and we see the same doctrine being adopted by the Danes in after the British raid on Copenhagen as a way for Denmark to rebuild a naval force fast and cheap and was used by the Danes in the Gunboat War against the British . It’s a doctrine of weakness and makes a lot of sense for a minor power to adopt.
That also bring up an added benefit of the catamaran, they can be build decentral by pretty much the same people who build fishing boats or small yawls. You don’t need highly skilled workforce to build it. Which also means it can be build in Courland‘s colonies.
I'm thinking it could easily be applied to West African Dugout canoes too, which will bring about some changes on the Atlantic side, some of them such as the war canoes can be quite large. And from that on wiki I learned that coastal people were surfing in West and Central Africa so the Courlanders might pick that up to supplement their joyrides.
Good lessons all - thanks again!
With this last bit, you got exactly to the heart of it. Another way I'm stacking the deck for Courland-in-exile to not go poof. Fernau, Gambia and Tobago can run with these simpler ships, especially for their "local" use. Saint Helena and open-ocean sailing should wait for another generation of innovation, or stick to the descendants of the caravel/carrack family tree, or wait for outright schooners.
Right, so I found another good candidate for Martin: Princess Henrietta of England . Which might be a stretch, since there's definitely better candidates for her, but with how close Charles and Jakob are, I feel like this match may just be possible.
In case of Denmark Vilhemine Ernestine of Denmark would be only real choice if you want to keep the butterflies small, if you’re okay with the butterfly one of her older sers would be a better choice. But the butterfly of the eldest sister would be no Augustus the Strong, and the second eldest sister would mostly have effect later as she‘s the ancestor of Gottorp rulers of Sweden and Russia. The benefit of WE is that she didn’t have any children in OTL and as such it will have minimal effect down the line.
Outside Frederik III’s own children there’s no real good proxy candidates, Frederik III didn’t have a good relationship with the branch families, so they can’t be used as proxies. His semi-legitimate and illegitimate half-sisters are too old, none of their children really fitting for a royal houses like the Kettlers who were attempting to marry up and he didn’t have a good relationship with most of them either.
Outside Frederik III’s own children there’s no real good proxy candidates, Frederik III didn’t have a good relationship with the branch families, so they can’t be used as proxies. His semi-legitimate and illegitimate half-sisters are too old, none of their children really fitting for a royal houses like the Kettlers who were attempting to marry up and he didn’t have a good relationship with most of them either.
39. Memel, Prussia, Summer 1655.
Winds of Change - part three
The visit to Memel lasted three days in all. Enough time for Joachim to grow bored of the castle's interior more than once, turning his attention to its moat that doubled as a place for the most privileged to dock smaller boats. Joachim's gentle misadventures were most satisfying when accompanied by his brother, whose presence seemed to expand the range of permissions available to them. Martin added to his brother's enjoyment indirectly rather than directly: he wasn't especially fun personality-wise, but he took satisfaction in enabling or discovering more enjoyable activities.
Alone, Joachim enjoyed trying to skip stones in the moat, a challenge given he was rarely throwing from water-level. He enjoyed throwing stones a safe distance away from boats to get a reaction from his minders, who invariably thought a greater distance might be safer. He ran down the docks and tried to board the boats, and usually was brought back quickly. He laughed, he got bored.
With Martin, Joachim got to ride in the boats. Martin was just trusted like that. First they rowed a little, up and down and around. Then Martin "borrowed" a simple little sailboat and took his brother for a ride, prompting gleeful laughter from Joachim as they escaped his minders for some minutes, sailing (and paddling) out to the strait connecting the lagoon to the sea. It was good to have a good brother. For Joachim, he felt the best of the world was available to him when his brother was around. For Martin, the satisfaction of leadership, responsibility, the clear certainty of success announced by his brother's evident joy. And all the good con- words. Confidence. Conspiring. Maybe even Control for the autonomy he gained with each demonstration of his trustworthiness - the more so if demonstrated in mischief. Joachim's cackling was an ever-welcome catalyst and reward.
Joachim paid it forward, too. Back home, he would tickle his little brothers and sisters generously, revelling in their giggles. Martin left him to it; whether it was the low difficulty, low commitment required or the brevity of the dividends, tickling for giggles held little interest for him.
- - -
"You and I have been on parallel courses for a decade or more. Making something more out of the lands and leadership we've inherited. I very nearly have my army at a level where I'd trust them against the army of any other Baltic nation. I would say you have the Baltic's finest navy by a great margin except that so few of your ships are anywhere near the Baltic at any given time. Around us, Poland's nobles reluctantly help their King to prepare a warring force; they have no navy worth speaking of. Mount a cannon on each of your three ships down at my docks, and you might defeat Poland's navy with it. Russia has nothing on the Baltic but naked ambition and trade, and half that trade passes via you or Sweden already. Denmark's days of holding Sweden in check may be fading. Even your leased Flekkerøy may be a target. You've made Courland and Semigallia an epicentre of manufacture, commerce, and international trade. Without war, I should expect half of the Russian trade passing from Novgorod to Sweden might come your way via Kreuzburg within ten years - sooner if your engineers get that bridge done sooner."
Frederick William rose, to look out a window toward the Baltic.
"You and I may be the only ones around the Baltic who aren't focused on controlling it, or controlling who has access to it. Me, I have enough trouble juggling these separate realms and their separate needs. Connecting them would secure Brandenburg's influence within the Empire for a generation or more - that's worth more to me than the Baltic. You send ships far beyond Europe without much care for more local affairs, profiting from distant trade and reinvesting that here and in your colonies. To you, the Baltic is a starting point and an end point, you need only a coast from which to send and receive ships, and the men and means to make them. But those men and means are a form of wealth, Jakob, no less than the arteries of trade you've invested in expanding on the Düna, overland, or on the Windau or Libau rivers. You have invested greatly, your investments have paid off handsomely, and now all the wealth of capability and commerce Courland has makes your duchy a target. You Kettlers have always envied Riga, and now I would be surprised if Sweden and Russia and Lithuania and even Poland and Denmark didn't agree Libau is now the better prize. You must be able to defend what you have, Jakob. If you cannot, you will lose it for no better reason than the abundant strength of someone with equally abundant envy or greed. "
"You are right that of all my investments, defending the land is one I've put too little into. I've inherited from Poland the problem of nobles who resist contributing to an army on the one hand, and rail against any army I might build myself on the other. I am constrained, but I will see what else I can muster. Still - we are here together, and brothers-in-law. What might you desire of me for our mutual benefit?"
"I appreciate your candour. For our mutual benefit.... One: do not allow Lithuania access to the sea. Help Lithuanian trade pass via Prussia and Courland all we can, but we must not let it bypass us. Two: should Prussia or Courland leave their vassalage to Poland, they do so together. Three, I would gladly name the Kettlers of Courland as the heirs to Prussia should my line ever be extinguished, if you would do the same for me. Just Prussia - I must make other provisions for Brandenburg and my other holdings."
"Consider points one, two, and three accepted. With thanks. Am I right to assume you are more inclined to side with Sweden against Poland than with Poland and whoever else against Sweden in Pomerania?"
"Yes on both counts. Pomerania would be a fine prize, even shared with Poland. But independence, recognition of it, and some small hope of Danzig? Better. And, to face the weakest local power allied to the strongest seems prudent."
"As you've said, the weakest is me. Give or take plentiful powder and mostly absent ships."
"Sell me all the powder you can't properly use yourself. God knows you produce it in more abundance than anyone else on the Baltic. Keep Denmark as your friend. Russia too, if you can. Their high priest or whatever they call him is pissing off a lot of people, including some wonderfully fortified monasteries full of monks. For all we know it's the start of getting the people angry to direct that anger somewhere. Try not to let it be toward you."
- - -
Der Zweifler sailed back the way it came the next morning, lagging behind its accompanying ships to start, then outpacing them on a lucky wind. By the time they paused at Polangen, Martin was confident he'd learned enough of the ZK's quirks from the sailors to propose joining the crew in sailing it the rest of the way. The Duke and Duchess wanted to get home quickly anyway, feeling there was much to consider and more to do. They greeted some prominent locals, including the family of Tevel ben Elisha's wife, for whom they gave him letters to send to Fernau.
When der Zweifler set off North again, Jakob was thoughtful. So much he'd built. So many lives changed. So much that hadn't been Courland before was Courland now. And so much was at risk.
He barely noticed how fast Martin had persuaded the sailors to sail. Joachim did, though. And Joachim was laughing.
The visit to Memel lasted three days in all. Enough time for Joachim to grow bored of the castle's interior more than once, turning his attention to its moat that doubled as a place for the most privileged to dock smaller boats. Joachim's gentle misadventures were most satisfying when accompanied by his brother, whose presence seemed to expand the range of permissions available to them. Martin added to his brother's enjoyment indirectly rather than directly: he wasn't especially fun personality-wise, but he took satisfaction in enabling or discovering more enjoyable activities.
Alone, Joachim enjoyed trying to skip stones in the moat, a challenge given he was rarely throwing from water-level. He enjoyed throwing stones a safe distance away from boats to get a reaction from his minders, who invariably thought a greater distance might be safer. He ran down the docks and tried to board the boats, and usually was brought back quickly. He laughed, he got bored.
With Martin, Joachim got to ride in the boats. Martin was just trusted like that. First they rowed a little, up and down and around. Then Martin "borrowed" a simple little sailboat and took his brother for a ride, prompting gleeful laughter from Joachim as they escaped his minders for some minutes, sailing (and paddling) out to the strait connecting the lagoon to the sea. It was good to have a good brother. For Joachim, he felt the best of the world was available to him when his brother was around. For Martin, the satisfaction of leadership, responsibility, the clear certainty of success announced by his brother's evident joy. And all the good con- words. Confidence. Conspiring. Maybe even Control for the autonomy he gained with each demonstration of his trustworthiness - the more so if demonstrated in mischief. Joachim's cackling was an ever-welcome catalyst and reward.
Joachim paid it forward, too. Back home, he would tickle his little brothers and sisters generously, revelling in their giggles. Martin left him to it; whether it was the low difficulty, low commitment required or the brevity of the dividends, tickling for giggles held little interest for him.
- - -
"You and I have been on parallel courses for a decade or more. Making something more out of the lands and leadership we've inherited. I very nearly have my army at a level where I'd trust them against the army of any other Baltic nation. I would say you have the Baltic's finest navy by a great margin except that so few of your ships are anywhere near the Baltic at any given time. Around us, Poland's nobles reluctantly help their King to prepare a warring force; they have no navy worth speaking of. Mount a cannon on each of your three ships down at my docks, and you might defeat Poland's navy with it. Russia has nothing on the Baltic but naked ambition and trade, and half that trade passes via you or Sweden already. Denmark's days of holding Sweden in check may be fading. Even your leased Flekkerøy may be a target. You've made Courland and Semigallia an epicentre of manufacture, commerce, and international trade. Without war, I should expect half of the Russian trade passing from Novgorod to Sweden might come your way via Kreuzburg within ten years - sooner if your engineers get that bridge done sooner."
Frederick William rose, to look out a window toward the Baltic.
"You and I may be the only ones around the Baltic who aren't focused on controlling it, or controlling who has access to it. Me, I have enough trouble juggling these separate realms and their separate needs. Connecting them would secure Brandenburg's influence within the Empire for a generation or more - that's worth more to me than the Baltic. You send ships far beyond Europe without much care for more local affairs, profiting from distant trade and reinvesting that here and in your colonies. To you, the Baltic is a starting point and an end point, you need only a coast from which to send and receive ships, and the men and means to make them. But those men and means are a form of wealth, Jakob, no less than the arteries of trade you've invested in expanding on the Düna, overland, or on the Windau or Libau rivers. You have invested greatly, your investments have paid off handsomely, and now all the wealth of capability and commerce Courland has makes your duchy a target. You Kettlers have always envied Riga, and now I would be surprised if Sweden and Russia and Lithuania and even Poland and Denmark didn't agree Libau is now the better prize. You must be able to defend what you have, Jakob. If you cannot, you will lose it for no better reason than the abundant strength of someone with equally abundant envy or greed. "
"You are right that of all my investments, defending the land is one I've put too little into. I've inherited from Poland the problem of nobles who resist contributing to an army on the one hand, and rail against any army I might build myself on the other. I am constrained, but I will see what else I can muster. Still - we are here together, and brothers-in-law. What might you desire of me for our mutual benefit?"
"I appreciate your candour. For our mutual benefit.... One: do not allow Lithuania access to the sea. Help Lithuanian trade pass via Prussia and Courland all we can, but we must not let it bypass us. Two: should Prussia or Courland leave their vassalage to Poland, they do so together. Three, I would gladly name the Kettlers of Courland as the heirs to Prussia should my line ever be extinguished, if you would do the same for me. Just Prussia - I must make other provisions for Brandenburg and my other holdings."
"Consider points one, two, and three accepted. With thanks. Am I right to assume you are more inclined to side with Sweden against Poland than with Poland and whoever else against Sweden in Pomerania?"
"Yes on both counts. Pomerania would be a fine prize, even shared with Poland. But independence, recognition of it, and some small hope of Danzig? Better. And, to face the weakest local power allied to the strongest seems prudent."
"As you've said, the weakest is me. Give or take plentiful powder and mostly absent ships."
"Sell me all the powder you can't properly use yourself. God knows you produce it in more abundance than anyone else on the Baltic. Keep Denmark as your friend. Russia too, if you can. Their high priest or whatever they call him is pissing off a lot of people, including some wonderfully fortified monasteries full of monks. For all we know it's the start of getting the people angry to direct that anger somewhere. Try not to let it be toward you."
- - -
Der Zweifler sailed back the way it came the next morning, lagging behind its accompanying ships to start, then outpacing them on a lucky wind. By the time they paused at Polangen, Martin was confident he'd learned enough of the ZK's quirks from the sailors to propose joining the crew in sailing it the rest of the way. The Duke and Duchess wanted to get home quickly anyway, feeling there was much to consider and more to do. They greeted some prominent locals, including the family of Tevel ben Elisha's wife, for whom they gave him letters to send to Fernau.
When der Zweifler set off North again, Jakob was thoughtful. So much he'd built. So many lives changed. So much that hadn't been Courland before was Courland now. And so much was at risk.
He barely noticed how fast Martin had persuaded the sailors to sail. Joachim did, though. And Joachim was laughing.
Today's next-day, in-lieu-of-footnotes post will also tackle some of your matchmaking suggestions and trivia. Let's start with the latter.
At the mention of butterflies arising from messing with the ancestors of other historical notables (Augustus the Strong, in @Jürgen 's post above), my mind immediately went to a curiosity I'd read: until the death of Queen Elizabeth II in Scotland last year, a granddaughter of Jakob Kettler was the most recent common ancestor (with her husband) of all reigning hereditary monarchs in Europe. She was the daughter of his daughter Maria Amalia, presently his second-youngest child TTL, though I've had no cause to focus attention on her. A little reminder that I've entirely kept Jakob and Louise Charlotte entirely on OTL's schedule for popping out kids. All that changed was Martin being born before the eldest OTL child (as the marriage happened earlier TTL), and OTL's Ladislaus being named Joachim TTL and not dying at 3 months of age.
Here's that royal-ancestor granddaughter:
- - -
Matchmaking: thanks for the suggestions. This timeline will be subjecting a lot of butterflies and butterfly-larvae to insecticide soon enough. I won't fear flirting with potential butterflies all that much, only letting them reach a point where they can migrate would be of concern. Our next correspondence from Jacob's desk chapter will pick this up.
- - -
What have we done? Well, finally, we have the bones of the conflict to come. Not all that different from OTL, though perhaps a touch delayed by Sweden's distraction and Poland unluckily striking out on royal longevity of late. Lithuania is a different wild-card than OTL. Denmark is almost entirely unchanged, though its relations with a different Britain and the Netherlands might adjust its war calculus relative to OTL. Prussia is essentially the same. The first domino could come from any of a few directions, but Prussia isn't eager to be the first mover.
Lastly, the boys. A little more investment in the character traits of Martin and Joachim. By contrasting Martin against someone younger, it was a little easier to bring out some aspects of Martin's make-up that might not have been as apparent otherwise. And Joachim, well, he's just a little ray of sunshine at this point. OTL, Jakob's heir was Frederick Casimir, 2.5 years younger than Joachim, an ineffective bon vivant. Perhaps Joachim splits the difference between that and whatever Martin is.
At the mention of butterflies arising from messing with the ancestors of other historical notables (Augustus the Strong, in @Jürgen 's post above), my mind immediately went to a curiosity I'd read: until the death of Queen Elizabeth II in Scotland last year, a granddaughter of Jakob Kettler was the most recent common ancestor (with her husband) of all reigning hereditary monarchs in Europe. She was the daughter of his daughter Maria Amalia, presently his second-youngest child TTL, though I've had no cause to focus attention on her. A little reminder that I've entirely kept Jakob and Louise Charlotte entirely on OTL's schedule for popping out kids. All that changed was Martin being born before the eldest OTL child (as the marriage happened earlier TTL), and OTL's Ladislaus being named Joachim TTL and not dying at 3 months of age.
Here's that royal-ancestor granddaughter:
I'll spare you clicking around wikipedia to see how she lost the title, if you haven't deduced it already: King Charles III has a common ancestor with all other Euroyals more recent than Marie Luise, thanks to his father's family tree. The current holders of the title are two decades more recent.
- - -
Matchmaking: thanks for the suggestions. This timeline will be subjecting a lot of butterflies and butterfly-larvae to insecticide soon enough. I won't fear flirting with potential butterflies all that much, only letting them reach a point where they can migrate would be of concern. Our next correspondence from Jacob's desk chapter will pick this up.
- - -
What have we done? Well, finally, we have the bones of the conflict to come. Not all that different from OTL, though perhaps a touch delayed by Sweden's distraction and Poland unluckily striking out on royal longevity of late. Lithuania is a different wild-card than OTL. Denmark is almost entirely unchanged, though its relations with a different Britain and the Netherlands might adjust its war calculus relative to OTL. Prussia is essentially the same. The first domino could come from any of a few directions, but Prussia isn't eager to be the first mover.
Lastly, the boys. A little more investment in the character traits of Martin and Joachim. By contrasting Martin against someone younger, it was a little easier to bring out some aspects of Martin's make-up that might not have been as apparent otherwise. And Joachim, well, he's just a little ray of sunshine at this point. OTL, Jakob's heir was Frederick Casimir, 2.5 years younger than Joachim, an ineffective bon vivant. Perhaps Joachim splits the difference between that and whatever Martin is.
40. Libau, and Goldingen, Summer 1655.
Jakob's desk - part one
As it turns out, my duke, not a single ship has truly docked at Saint Helena. Not in my tenure, not ever. The island and its entire coast is simply too rugged. Our goal of a dry dock will never be possible. Instead, we've build a series of rafts, each linked to the next by chain, so that a ship at anchor can be surrounded by them and more easily worked on than from the ship's boats. This will provide less valuable a service than a dry dock. It has still helped some ship repairs take moderately less time than otherwise.
Our main profit is from our taverns. Saint Helena is - forgive my bluntness - the loneliest brothel in the world. Loneliness is advantageous to a brothel of course. Men who have not seen a woman in weeks pay us extremely well for the women we keep. We buy captive women from the rare ships that have them, with beauty and a lack of apparent disease the only considerations. I was astounded at the price we would pay for a girl, only to make back our money in an even more astonishing period of time. Our men are all from Europe, save some few slaves from Africa and Madagascar. But we now have women from almost anywhere that ships have sailed.
It would not be wrong to think of our island as a castle on the ocean. We have the most perfect moat, no drawbridge, and the thickest stone walls build by God's own hand. Then the places where there is green and life rather than barren rock are inland. We can enjoy either the see or the green, nowhere do the two meet. The few of us with families live inland to steer clear of sailors. They farm, growing what we can to feed ourselves and our guests. Some trees and crops from Tobago and Fernau have taken. Root vegetables are still growing best of all.
I am pleased to say we have fully vanquished the wild dogs. We still have dogs, but we've domesticated any that remain.....
- - -
Our small congregation thanks you, my lord, or accepting us, and to Tsarina Irina who led us to seek you out. We further thank you for allowing us to settle in Windau rather than closer to Russia. We still fear reprisal from Patriarch Nikon, and did not want to have only the Düna between ourselves and Russia. We are being called the "Old Believers" now. Some take offence. I find the name fits. We are grateful to bring our Old ways to this New land.
- - -
I also sent Tevel a copy of these poor maps for his people to work on. I am nearly certain there is no second Nile flowing east to west. Our rivers here all bend to the south, where there are highlands. The Gambia, the Casamance and others. We have learned a lot thanks to Crispina Peres and her people. We are now good neighbours. The next river we seek to follow inland will be the Senegal. We will avoid the French at Saint-Louis, and walk or ride overland from the Gambia to meet the Senegal farther upriver. There is no other remaining river that may reach further east. We have lost a dozen men or more to this exploring, and will lose more before we finish. We are at least making friends, and friends inland help us gain slaves from their enemies at better prices than Europeans find at the coast. So long as you keep replacing the men we lose, there is profit to you and the men who succeed in your endeavours.
- - -
I offer my suzerainty, Duke Yakov, to see to your proper defence. Also: Russian blood to strengthen your line. Romanov blood. Your heir Martin Yakovich shall wed my daughter Yevdokia Alekseyevna. My advisors may tell me to marry her to a Hapsburg, but no Hapsburg can bring Russia to the Baltic. I will generously consent to wait for your son to study in a university we agree to, somewhere. And your Svyatoy Martin Akademiya will gain many Russian students and teachers. Together we shall link Baltic trade to the Volga and the Orient, for great profit. What say you, Duke Yakov?
- - -
The only sensible option is to join Sweden, Duke Jakob. together with Prussia the Baltic shall be ours, to preside over trade of amber, honey, and all the grain from those breadbaskets of the East. And our colonies! From America to the Caribbean to the Black Slave Coasts, we will have trade and navies nearing parity with the Dutch! Send me word that you will join us, and I will see that Karl Gustav is generous with Courland and Semigallia...
- - -
My lord Duke, your son is not wrong. Astronomers will surely learn to predict eclipses with ever-greater accuracy. You give him access to some of Europe's best stargazing mathematicians, your glassworks turn out the what may be the best telescopes in all the world, and you wonder that your heir takes such a keen interest in the great half-solved questions of the skies? That eclipses of the sun recur in regular patterns has long been known. WHEN has become a simple matter of matching up with previous documented celestial patterns. WHERE precisely the shadow of the moon will darken the Earth, though... there remains something unknown there barring our way to having such geographic precision. There are subtleties to the moon's dance we have not learned to follow as yet.
Now, if your son has effectively commissioned a catalogue of known eclipses, that strikes me as something that will help mathematicians greatly. Not yet, of course, but whenever they've figured out what their missing piece is. It's like Kepler, simplified by a vastly narrower focus. And you say he showed you maps of Europe with bands upon it for the path of totality for both the eclipse of last summer and spring of '52? Marvellous.
One day we will draw lines on the map like that, and they will tell where the moon's shadow will land, on what future day and at what foreseen hour. Quite useless until then, I'm afraid. But still another fine curiosity for your eminent Couronian cartographers all the same.
- - - -
[leaving all these without names, dates, or locations seems all part of the fun]
As it turns out, my duke, not a single ship has truly docked at Saint Helena. Not in my tenure, not ever. The island and its entire coast is simply too rugged. Our goal of a dry dock will never be possible. Instead, we've build a series of rafts, each linked to the next by chain, so that a ship at anchor can be surrounded by them and more easily worked on than from the ship's boats. This will provide less valuable a service than a dry dock. It has still helped some ship repairs take moderately less time than otherwise.
Our main profit is from our taverns. Saint Helena is - forgive my bluntness - the loneliest brothel in the world. Loneliness is advantageous to a brothel of course. Men who have not seen a woman in weeks pay us extremely well for the women we keep. We buy captive women from the rare ships that have them, with beauty and a lack of apparent disease the only considerations. I was astounded at the price we would pay for a girl, only to make back our money in an even more astonishing period of time. Our men are all from Europe, save some few slaves from Africa and Madagascar. But we now have women from almost anywhere that ships have sailed.
It would not be wrong to think of our island as a castle on the ocean. We have the most perfect moat, no drawbridge, and the thickest stone walls build by God's own hand. Then the places where there is green and life rather than barren rock are inland. We can enjoy either the see or the green, nowhere do the two meet. The few of us with families live inland to steer clear of sailors. They farm, growing what we can to feed ourselves and our guests. Some trees and crops from Tobago and Fernau have taken. Root vegetables are still growing best of all.
I am pleased to say we have fully vanquished the wild dogs. We still have dogs, but we've domesticated any that remain.....
- - -
Our small congregation thanks you, my lord, or accepting us, and to Tsarina Irina who led us to seek you out. We further thank you for allowing us to settle in Windau rather than closer to Russia. We still fear reprisal from Patriarch Nikon, and did not want to have only the Düna between ourselves and Russia. We are being called the "Old Believers" now. Some take offence. I find the name fits. We are grateful to bring our Old ways to this New land.
- - -
I also sent Tevel a copy of these poor maps for his people to work on. I am nearly certain there is no second Nile flowing east to west. Our rivers here all bend to the south, where there are highlands. The Gambia, the Casamance and others. We have learned a lot thanks to Crispina Peres and her people. We are now good neighbours. The next river we seek to follow inland will be the Senegal. We will avoid the French at Saint-Louis, and walk or ride overland from the Gambia to meet the Senegal farther upriver. There is no other remaining river that may reach further east. We have lost a dozen men or more to this exploring, and will lose more before we finish. We are at least making friends, and friends inland help us gain slaves from their enemies at better prices than Europeans find at the coast. So long as you keep replacing the men we lose, there is profit to you and the men who succeed in your endeavours.
- - -
I offer my suzerainty, Duke Yakov, to see to your proper defence. Also: Russian blood to strengthen your line. Romanov blood. Your heir Martin Yakovich shall wed my daughter Yevdokia Alekseyevna. My advisors may tell me to marry her to a Hapsburg, but no Hapsburg can bring Russia to the Baltic. I will generously consent to wait for your son to study in a university we agree to, somewhere. And your Svyatoy Martin Akademiya will gain many Russian students and teachers. Together we shall link Baltic trade to the Volga and the Orient, for great profit. What say you, Duke Yakov?
- - -
The only sensible option is to join Sweden, Duke Jakob. together with Prussia the Baltic shall be ours, to preside over trade of amber, honey, and all the grain from those breadbaskets of the East. And our colonies! From America to the Caribbean to the Black Slave Coasts, we will have trade and navies nearing parity with the Dutch! Send me word that you will join us, and I will see that Karl Gustav is generous with Courland and Semigallia...
- - -
My lord Duke, your son is not wrong. Astronomers will surely learn to predict eclipses with ever-greater accuracy. You give him access to some of Europe's best stargazing mathematicians, your glassworks turn out the what may be the best telescopes in all the world, and you wonder that your heir takes such a keen interest in the great half-solved questions of the skies? That eclipses of the sun recur in regular patterns has long been known. WHEN has become a simple matter of matching up with previous documented celestial patterns. WHERE precisely the shadow of the moon will darken the Earth, though... there remains something unknown there barring our way to having such geographic precision. There are subtleties to the moon's dance we have not learned to follow as yet.
Now, if your son has effectively commissioned a catalogue of known eclipses, that strikes me as something that will help mathematicians greatly. Not yet, of course, but whenever they've figured out what their missing piece is. It's like Kepler, simplified by a vastly narrower focus. And you say he showed you maps of Europe with bands upon it for the path of totality for both the eclipse of last summer and spring of '52? Marvellous.
One day we will draw lines on the map like that, and they will tell where the moon's shadow will land, on what future day and at what foreseen hour. Quite useless until then, I'm afraid. But still another fine curiosity for your eminent Couronian cartographers all the same.
- - - -
[leaving all these without names, dates, or locations seems all part of the fun]
Yes, but. It’s not about Courland specifically. Russia wants Baltic access. Courland would be less convenient than an Estonian cost closer to Novgorod’s trade route, or Riga at the mouth of the Düna River that carries other Russian trade.
Sweden wants dominion over the Baltic. Courland would be just the next stretch of shoreline. Denmark’s Baltic islands are another thorn. (The one certainty is Sweden and Denmark will not be allies in a Baltic war without a bigger bully around).
Poland… I have to think about this now, but Poland’s playing for stature more than anything with Courland. They have no border, at all, with only Poland’s other vassal Prussia thinly connecting them. Poland just desperately needs to prove it remains… major.
Lithuania, long perceived as the junior partner of the PLC, probably just to stabilize its place in the world. Courland is a luxury beyond its means with other bigger predators around.
Denmark remembers dreams of Baltic domination too. With Sweden recognized as being ascendant since Westphalia, I honestly don’t know whether Denmark believes more in those dreams or just in containing Swedish ambition.
And most of the above is really unchanged from OTL - these aren't the details this timeline is much messing with. Poland and Lithuania are both a little diminished, Denmark and Sweden are both back up to speed after I dealt them a minor stall. What is meaningfully different? Russia borders Semigallia across the Düna, making Courland and Semigallia a valid connector to the sea, although overland rather than by river. Prussia plays the same game, but knows most of its rivals have weaker hands than OTL. Courland and Semigallia (mostly Courland, to be fair) have a booming economy that others might prefer intact and at their disposal, or else prefer taken down a peg. And any number of zealot reasons could still spur someone to condemn Jakob, though that could just be used as convenient cover.
(Later today, then, I’ll colour a Baltic map. Badly, mind you. But enough to be helpful. If it’s good enough, I’ll even threadmark it.)
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Dear readers, a completely ugly but possibly helpful map of the Baltic:
Also, unfortunately tiny.
I cut this segment from a Europe M-BAM map of external (black) and internal (red) borders. By tuning it to this time frame and timeline, we end up having some international borders in red too.
Uppercase letters are for Courland and Semigallia locations of interest. Roughly west-to-east:
W: Windau, Courland's more northerly port.
L: Libau, TTL's effective capital for Courland and Semigallia
G: Goldingen, the capital of Courland when Jakob's father ruled.
M: Mitau, the capital of Semigallia and of the united Courland and Semigallia in Frederick's time.
K: Kreuzburg, where this timeline is seeing a bridge built over the Düna to draw Russian trade away from Swedish Livonia and Riga.
D: Dünaburg, the first stop in Semigallia for the first wave of Jewish immigration fleeing Ruthenian Cossacks.
Just realized after the fact I left out an F for Flekkerøy near southernmost Norway.
Lowercase letters are nearby locations of interest:
m: Memel
k: Königsberg
r: Riga
Germany is a mess I left mostly alone, save to colour in Brandenburg and Swedish Pomerania. I probably blew the inland border between Norway and Sweden, but it will never come up in the timeline, so let's not worry. If it's grey, I haven't changed anything from OTL anyway.
Denmark has Baltic islands TTL that it had lost OTL.
As the timeline's title says: "...for now."
Also, unfortunately tiny.
I cut this segment from a Europe M-BAM map of external (black) and internal (red) borders. By tuning it to this time frame and timeline, we end up having some international borders in red too.
Uppercase letters are for Courland and Semigallia locations of interest. Roughly west-to-east:
W: Windau, Courland's more northerly port.
L: Libau, TTL's effective capital for Courland and Semigallia
G: Goldingen, the capital of Courland when Jakob's father ruled.
M: Mitau, the capital of Semigallia and of the united Courland and Semigallia in Frederick's time.
K: Kreuzburg, where this timeline is seeing a bridge built over the Düna to draw Russian trade away from Swedish Livonia and Riga.
D: Dünaburg, the first stop in Semigallia for the first wave of Jewish immigration fleeing Ruthenian Cossacks.
Just realized after the fact I left out an F for Flekkerøy near southernmost Norway.
Lowercase letters are nearby locations of interest:
m: Memel
k: Königsberg
r: Riga
Germany is a mess I left mostly alone, save to colour in Brandenburg and Swedish Pomerania. I probably blew the inland border between Norway and Sweden, but it will never come up in the timeline, so let's not worry. If it's grey, I haven't changed anything from OTL anyway.
Denmark has Baltic islands TTL that it had lost OTL.
As the timeline's title says: "...for now."
40. Libau, and Goldingen, Summer 1655.
Jakob's desk - part two
My dearest brother in Christ, I am of course saddened to hear that your armies are faring so much worse against Cromwell's than your navies are faring against his navies. Like you, I had thought that wresting majority control of the East India Company into royal and loyal hands would give you the means to press greater advantage in the field. Cromwell is proving wily, though. The Dutch ships and his no longer seem to harass one another. It seems the Dutch are trying to be your ally politically but his economically. Might you be able to strengthen your economic or even political ties with Portugal for a measure of balance on the seas from India to Grianaig and Leith?
Though I am struggling to maintain Couronian neutrality on land, at sea I seem to be managing. I think I shall continue to manage so long as I steer clear of privateering.
If you are of a mind to seek a lasting peace, I will be glad to serve as a witness and signatory to any treaty you make with the Puritan Parliament. Send word when you need me to come, and where, and it will be my pleasure to honour my godfather and namesake by seeing his son's peace restored.
Thank you for sending me those members of the so-called "Invisible College" - and you're welcome for having aided them in their work in Libau. Though my Academy will be sad to see them return home, it is worth it if you are indeed confident you can safely prepare your Royal Society of Edinburgh for Improving Natural Knowledge. "Nullius in verba" indeed.
- - -
Jan, I regret any way in which you have failed to gain an opportunity to become a colonial governor on my account. I did not anticipate that my investment in Saint Helena would cause the VOC to decline your proposal to settle the cape of Good Hope. Might you be interested in a post as governor of my Gambia colony? Failing that, the Gold Coast is rife with opportunity, and I might be persuaded to set up a fortified trading post amongst those the Swedes, Danes, and others are putting up, if I had a seasoned man to run it.
- - -
Mr Carloff, I most certainly appreciate the value of your experience with trading posts, colonies, and the various conflicts between the Portuguese and Dutch. Should you find Sweden's investment in the Gold Coast insufficient to hold your interest, do call at Fernau, and bring this letter with you. Between yourself and my man Tevel ben Elisha, who governs there in my name, any number of possibilities in the Gulf of Guinea might be pursued.
- - -
Please inform Master Zelig that I am not dissatisfied with his organization of my children's education. Understand that the "wild behaviour" of "that dark savage" is no stain on his own reputation. What is a stain on his reputation is calling the man "that dark savage" in the first place. We are speaking of the first man brought to Courland from the Guinea coast, and also the man teaching Martin how to speakGuinean the tongues of those lands. Either should suffice to see he is treated with respect in Libau. Master Zelig should be more concerned that Martin appears to be the only student able to hold a conversation with the man. It is to Courland's advantage if we can converse with natives as well or better than all Europe does with those Portuguese creoles. If adults struggle or show disinterest, find younger students.
- - -
Our two nations are both finding their footing in this new world. Courland will be glad to remain ever friends with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and ever eager to facilitate its trade with partners at Courland's ports. You have my promise that your merchants on the Düna and Windau will continue to receive the same hospitality as ever, and that I will not raise the duties they pay for at least four years.
- - -
...and so it is agreed, brother-in-law. The clause on being "Baltic-born" in our agreement reads as you propose - should my male line or yours be extinguished, the other's heir may rule both duchies, if they are born where waters flow to the Baltic, or in any of the other agreed territories we each presently rule. The declaration is appended, with my sign and seal, and witnessed and signed by one of my best men, who I think you will receive gladly in Berlin. He will witness your signature and seal on all copies, and sign his attestation. Then we shall see whether the King of Poland accepts, or whether he forces us to declare an end to Poland's suzerainty. To have to wait so many weeks for an answer in such tense times is cruel. Godspeed.
- - -
Thank you, Irina, for the painting of the new church at Flekkerøy. I did indeed recognize the carving of those strange southern birds you sent back south to Saint Helena in the columns at the entrance. Now that you are collecting more Russians and Norwegians in your congregation, I wonder what they will think. I am happy to report that, as of my last message from Saint Helena, the birds remain alive and apparently breeding.
My dearest brother in Christ, I am of course saddened to hear that your armies are faring so much worse against Cromwell's than your navies are faring against his navies. Like you, I had thought that wresting majority control of the East India Company into royal and loyal hands would give you the means to press greater advantage in the field. Cromwell is proving wily, though. The Dutch ships and his no longer seem to harass one another. It seems the Dutch are trying to be your ally politically but his economically. Might you be able to strengthen your economic or even political ties with Portugal for a measure of balance on the seas from India to Grianaig and Leith?
Though I am struggling to maintain Couronian neutrality on land, at sea I seem to be managing. I think I shall continue to manage so long as I steer clear of privateering.
If you are of a mind to seek a lasting peace, I will be glad to serve as a witness and signatory to any treaty you make with the Puritan Parliament. Send word when you need me to come, and where, and it will be my pleasure to honour my godfather and namesake by seeing his son's peace restored.
Thank you for sending me those members of the so-called "Invisible College" - and you're welcome for having aided them in their work in Libau. Though my Academy will be sad to see them return home, it is worth it if you are indeed confident you can safely prepare your Royal Society of Edinburgh for Improving Natural Knowledge. "Nullius in verba" indeed.
- - -
Jan, I regret any way in which you have failed to gain an opportunity to become a colonial governor on my account. I did not anticipate that my investment in Saint Helena would cause the VOC to decline your proposal to settle the cape of Good Hope. Might you be interested in a post as governor of my Gambia colony? Failing that, the Gold Coast is rife with opportunity, and I might be persuaded to set up a fortified trading post amongst those the Swedes, Danes, and others are putting up, if I had a seasoned man to run it.
- - -
Mr Carloff, I most certainly appreciate the value of your experience with trading posts, colonies, and the various conflicts between the Portuguese and Dutch. Should you find Sweden's investment in the Gold Coast insufficient to hold your interest, do call at Fernau, and bring this letter with you. Between yourself and my man Tevel ben Elisha, who governs there in my name, any number of possibilities in the Gulf of Guinea might be pursued.
- - -
Please inform Master Zelig that I am not dissatisfied with his organization of my children's education. Understand that the "wild behaviour" of "that dark savage" is no stain on his own reputation. What is a stain on his reputation is calling the man "that dark savage" in the first place. We are speaking of the first man brought to Courland from the Guinea coast, and also the man teaching Martin how to speak
- - -
Our two nations are both finding their footing in this new world. Courland will be glad to remain ever friends with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and ever eager to facilitate its trade with partners at Courland's ports. You have my promise that your merchants on the Düna and Windau will continue to receive the same hospitality as ever, and that I will not raise the duties they pay for at least four years.
- - -
...and so it is agreed, brother-in-law. The clause on being "Baltic-born" in our agreement reads as you propose - should my male line or yours be extinguished, the other's heir may rule both duchies, if they are born where waters flow to the Baltic, or in any of the other agreed territories we each presently rule. The declaration is appended, with my sign and seal, and witnessed and signed by one of my best men, who I think you will receive gladly in Berlin. He will witness your signature and seal on all copies, and sign his attestation. Then we shall see whether the King of Poland accepts, or whether he forces us to declare an end to Poland's suzerainty. To have to wait so many weeks for an answer in such tense times is cruel. Godspeed.
- - -
Thank you, Irina, for the painting of the new church at Flekkerøy. I did indeed recognize the carving of those strange southern birds you sent back south to Saint Helena in the columns at the entrance. Now that you are collecting more Russians and Norwegians in your congregation, I wonder what they will think. I am happy to report that, as of my last message from Saint Helena, the birds remain alive and apparently breeding.
And so it begins... let's hope Courland doesn't suffer too much, thought there will be suffering, as any good European war does.
When I started writing the timeline, I hadn't yet decided how this bit would go. And this week, I've still left some details undecided, to keep some near and far future flexibility. Europe can be left in any of a number of messes and this timeline can still do what it needs to do.
One such bit of flexibility here: Poland could simply accept the new heirs agreement between its vassals (giving up its own - on paper - right to select new rulers for either should their male lines die out), and seek to retain their vassalage. Courland and Prussia would have almost no more independence on paper, but would clearly have asserted some in practice.
Then the ball would be in Sweden's court.
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Very interesting, perhaps some Courlanders might be interested in the distance.