A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation
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There's also definition of Containment, China's main goal is economic expansion and access to resources in those regions as well as Russia itself and that's no problem to us as we can supply those at a decent price and we always welcome investments. This is kinda hard to contain because we have no realistic means of containing Chinese economic growth without sacrficing our own economic growth, same goes with Chinese military buildup, China will finance its military regardless of what we say, only thing we would achieve here is them building up along our borders and us needing to station more troops in far east. If we refuse to give China resources they will just buy them from somewhere else, even from the West and trade tends to be mutually beneficial.
Basically it's better for both us and China to be on good terms with each other's. For China Russia is unlikely to be a rival on its own down the road and they will focus more on Pacific sea and South/Southeast Asia. Regions of greater importance for them with more legitimate rivals while for us its better to be on good terms with China and avoid a conflict where there is none.
Best option for securing our influence in Central Asia is to go further down the road of Euroasian integrations in this decade untill 2010 and restore part of the influence Russia had during USSR. Down the line goal is to create functional Confederation that will help Moscow to retain a decent level of political influence over Central Asia.
Our goal in coming decade should be consolidation of our backyard before we move to influence the world globally.
Technically Yugoslavia/Serbia and Bulgaria. It's quite likely that we will also get Macedonia to join as well given its disputes with Greece and viable alternative they have in EEU/CIS, so basically we get half of Yugoslavia.
Poland maybe, but remember that we more, or less resolved our tensions with Romania in Moldavia clearing the way for normalization of relations. Depending on how Europe works out for them and how EEU/CIS work out for their neighbours we could always get them to switch sides.
Then you don't have to bother that much as that is unlikely to happen and there's a number of powers that will work against it, not in the least USA. Our best option is for Western Europe to achieve a level of strategic autonomy from the USA and for USA to decide that containing Russia isn't worth the expensess required to keep their influence in Eastern Europe.
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After the next update, Moldova once again will be independent, though they will remain in NATO and EU
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Guess Union with Romania didn't work out then? Well that's on them as most of our own problems with Romania and Moldavia should be resolved.
Yes, the Romanians mismanaged the Union and the Moldovan felt ignored, so there was an independence referendum.
Matador de Lagartos
Banned
Major developement. This means we can get Transnistria in the Union State without annoying the Romanians, after we settle things with Ukraine, or alternatively we can use Transnitria as a carrot to make Moldova side with us inside NATO and the EU.
There's also a third possibility which I favour: a pro-Russian Ukraine itself could be persuaded to absorb Transnistria with the support of the Union State, aiming to create a wedge between Ukraine and NATO/EU. This would make Ukraine even more pro-russian by means of the Transnistrian vote while strengthening the position of the pro-Russian president inside Ukraine.
With Ukraine alligned with Russia inside the CSTO, I don't see why would the majority of the Transnistrians oppose this.
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Transnistrians generally want to join Union State, not Ukraine and even if they agreed to join Ukraine it would be balancing act like with Moldova and Romania. Basically Ukraine couldn't just absorb Transnistria , it would need to offer carrots and Ukraine generally doesn't have that kind of money Transnistria wants, nor are they willing to offer wast array of autonomy given other Russian speaking areas they have could seek the same. This could weary well backfire with Transnistria seeking to secede down the line.
As for majority of Transnistrians? They recently gained their independence, wanted to join Union State but were refused and now they should be gifted to Ukraine? That doesn't look good.
We should generally keep state building and territory trading at minimum, when, or if Ukraine joins Union State ? Then we can talk about fate of Transnistria and Gaugazia.
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Matador de Lagartos
Banned
That's the catch, we want to strengthen the russian speaking autonomies inside Ukraine, and adding Transnistria to the mix would both enlarge their calls and fortify the position of the pro-russian Ukrainian president that is doing said move. The idea of making a referendum in Transnistria for their annexation inside Ukraine should be tied to the process of federalization of the Ukrainian state.
This federalization process would be understood in the pro-West part of Ukraine as Kiev acting as a Russian stooge, as anti-Ukrainian nationalism. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian President could repeal said arguments with the very idea that his political faction is in fact pursuing and achieving the enlargement of the Ukrainian state by means of the annexation of Transnistria, which at face value is an undeniable truth.
It goes without saying that this could help propel said pro-russian political faction towards the ultimate goal of making Ukraine enter inside the Union State. If push comes to shove and the situation develops into some kind of civil war, then the Transnistrian region could also serve as a pro-russian fortress close to West Ukraine.
To sum up: Transnistria is largely irrelevant in itself, but it could serve as the ideal carrot in the ideal moment for pro-Russian Ukraine. We could wait til the situation is solved in Ukraine as you said, but we would wasting a good opportunity to achieve our ultimate goals.
I understand that using Transnistria as a gift isn't exactly ideal from a PR perspective, but this isn't going to be such a big issue if the local population accepts it, which I think they may from a matter of convenience. Annexing Transnistria to the Union State would be much more illogical considering it would be a russian landlocked enclave very far from russian land. Governing Transnistria from Kiev makes much more logistical and economic sense than from Moscow, and the Ukrainians are also brotherly slavs, which is a rationalization that could serve to explain the situation well enough for all parties. If necessary, the Union State could sweeten the deal with some investments in the region.
There are risks of course, but inaction also presents its own, like the consolidation of the independent Ukrainian state. Don't you think its worth to risk one Transnistria for a better chance to get a whole Ukraine?
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Chasing the Yellow Dragon
Chasing the Yellow Dragon
The Rise of Chinese Migration to Siberia/Russia
For many people the question of why the Chinese came to Russia is one that comes up a lot but it makes more sense when looked as part of the greater whole. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Siberia as a whole saw the population growth stagnate or fall as Russia acclimated itself to the changes it was experiencing. While attempts were made to increase the development of the region most Russians did not wish to move there as the nations economy grew most young people would have liked to move to Moscow rather than what many saw as a cold and isolated Siberia which lacked much in terms of entertainment development and so on.
While China as a whole saw massive economic and development growth the reality was that several areas were increasingly left behind which happened in Northeastern China which at one point was one of China's industrial and economic center, but had stagnated and even fallen in development as more of China's attention went to its coastal territories and rising service sector which left the heavy-industry based Northeast to degrade.
It was this circumstances that saw the massive rise of Chinese migration into Russia as the Russian Far East developed, many hoped to begin a new life in the area. Most attempts to curtail such actions failed as the Siberian authorities for the most part did not care and frankly did not have the resources to really stop most people and for the most part were benefiting from it from the thousands of bribes from said migration. This was further driving by the early success of migrants who entered into the Siberian Industrial and Resource Boom of the early 1990s making it seem like one could easily move into Russia and become something in what many saw as the Russia's own American Dream as thousands of young Chinese and families moved into Russia.
Although such migration would actually stop by 2004 as new laws in China made it harder then ever for someone to migrate from China into Russia.
The Rise of the Yellow Dragon
However like the American Dream reality quickly came as the need for industrial jobs quickly filled up many would find it difficult to find a high earning job and competition became fierce as more migrants moved into the area bringing increasing difficulties for the migrants. For starters in the Russian Far East after the initial wave of Chinese migration most people were forced out as they were either priced out by Japanese buyers or literally forced out by local police who did not want any ghettos, or by the Chinese migrants who first arrived who felt threatened by the potential competition the new migrants would bring. It was did that lead to the rise of what many call the Yellow Dragon Road as many of the Chinese migrants moved westwards across the Tran-Siberian Railway in the hopes to move towards Moscow/Western Russia. However most found themselves getting stuck across Siberia as many never made it all the way into European Russia as food, travel, housing, and other expanses made them stay across the local cities and towns of Siberia as they simply did not have the money to move further creating what most Russians and later Chinese call the Yellow Dragon, a chain of Chinese settlement/communities across Siberia.
However this would quickly gain a new connotation as the Chinese migrant community moved to support each other transforming themselves from mostly poor people to hard working citizens although still poorer when compared to the average.
The Rise of the Russo-Chinese Community
While the millions of Chinese would find themselves in the less than ideal situation many would begin a major move to improve their role in live preferring not to simply see their community waste away in the local ghettos. This lead to a period of innovation and major economic development across the greater Chinese immigration community
For starters the reality that most people did not have cars would quickly lead to the major business of bicycle creation and selling as many made their own homemade bicycles and sold them to the community giving them ability to more easily move and to create a new transportation industry as many begin to move goods and services on their bicycles. This lead to greater demand for repair and better bicycles and later cycle Rickshaws, motorized scooters, and motorcycles which lead to the foundation of the Novosibirsk International or Hermes International as it was later renamed, who became a major competitor in Russia to IMZ-Ural, and lead to the major rise of the Russian bicycle and motorcycle industry.
With most people moving in the hopes of joining the local industrial industry many had some basic knowledge of metal working which many would pass the time creating their own jewelry and other knickknacks. This quickly became a major jewelry, belts, and high heel industry due to the increasing demand across the Chinese community for these products lead to a major demand which was quickly meet by the local producers who would later on gain major recognition across Russia.
Another less talked about industry was the pornographic and prostitution industry that grew in the area, as many young women found themselves without employment and in the need for cash. Prostitution for the most part became an open secret as it was a lucrative business and most major authorities were bribed handsomely by those running the major prostitution rings although later on compensation dating became more profitable due to overall less risk and greater say and pay on the women doing it and the greater crack down on prostitution as a whole. The real money maker however was pornography which quickly became a major economic fixture as recording and editing equipment became increasingly common in Russia. The Chinese anti-pornography laws would lead to the major illegal trade of pornography between Russia and China especially since there was a entire production that could speak and communicate in Chinese while having connections to China allowing for a strong penetration of the Chinese market and due to the massive population size meant that massive amounts of money could be made overall.
Said pornography industry and trade quickly lead to the rise of the digital industry as demand for easily attainable porn lead to the further use of porn websites and the growth of the digital infrastructure to support the demand. That same infrastructure was used to massively grow the digital piracy economy which became an major industry across Russia and mostly in Siberia where several worldwide digital piracy and sharing sites would be set up mostly run by the local Chinese community, many who would make their business selling across East Asia and the massive population of China, India, Korea, and Japan.
The Rise of the Yellow Dragon
While originally the Yellow Dragon meant the Chinese migrant community across Siberia the name would become associated with the Yellow Dragon Community Management which was born in 1996. The YDCM was mostly made as a way to further the interests of the Chinese immigrant community and allow them to develop in the hopes of clawing their way out of their poverty. From supporting the Novosibirsk International/Hermes International , to their major investment into the local digital infrastructure, to supporting the protecting Chinese workers the YDCM would make major strives in bringing development towards the community and with said development they would move towards their biggest development goal yet. The Yellow Road Initiative would invest massive amount of resources towards the refurbishing and building of the Chinatown's across the nation transforming them from dilapidated ghettos and into theme-park towns/cities based on the stereotypical perception of China/the East.
While such work might seem strange the plan mostly worked both creating new and better homes but creating a major advertisement platform for the region increasing the tourism in the area and allowing businesses to flourish as food, services and other goods attracted thousands to the Chinatowns. Of course this project came with a few caveats as every building had to comply with the general Chinese/East Asian theme and so did most of the locals clothes to further give the illusion of entering a separate region which helped the YDCM effectively hold a monopoly in textile and clothing industry in the Chinatown's as most people living there had to wear appropriate themed Chinese/East Asian clothing or face harassment or expulsion.
Overall the Yellow Dragon Community Management would be successful in expanding the locals interests but would also be seen in part as a controlling and monopolizing force as they held a significant amount of influence in the community and could make your life hell if you pissed them off to the point the Triads were largely forced out by them and the YDCM's militia.
Chinese Immigrant Community and its Relationship with China
While one may look at the major achievements of the Chinese Russian immigration community and see the major growth of influence of Chinese power in the nation this could would be far from the truth. The reality was that the Chinese Yellow Dragon community did not hold their homeland in high regard and most had a negative opinion finding the freedom and opportunity that Russia provided as better than anything the CCP could provide. Not helping was that the circumstances that they were at made them have few connections with China as a whole as they would mostly see themselves as part of the Yellow Dragon Road culture rather than being part of a greater Chinese community/culture.
This would only grow stronger as China tried to gain influence with said community with the Novosibirsk Russo-Chinese Heritage Celebration of 2001 quickly becoming a shit show as major protests would occur due to said celebration being largely influenced by the Chinese authorities rather than any real representation from the local community. The event would end after the protests continued and after the major parade was attacked with paint.
This would just be one of the showings of the divide between China and the Yellow Dragon community as in 2004 migration from China to Russia became incredibly more difficult separating many families from their family in China, major arrests of those dealing with the YDC in China and the major targeting of pornographic and digital piracy belonging to the YDC occurred. All of this plus the growing fear in China by the CCP that saw them as a fifth column targeting China would only widen the gap creating a community that for the most part hated China more than most Russians did.
Russia and the Yellow Dragon Community
For the most part the Russian authorities dealing with the growth of the Yellow Dragon community and Chinese immigration was one based on apathy as for most of the 1990s Russia's attention was mostly on Europe and European Russia as a whole. While Russia did move to improve its relationship with China the people in charge largely did not know the greater changes in the area and mostly tried to decrease migration of Chinese into Russia with little success. However the rise of the YDCM a greater amount of attention was giving with many hoping to access the situation in a similar way to how it deal with the Japanese migration.
The Yellow Dragon Community Report would figure out some of the overall situation leading to an increase in anti-discrimination laws primarily aimed as local law enforcement along with a greater move to open and renovate local schools to deal with the demand and to further the assimilation of the population into Russia, although several Russian language private schools had already appeared as the demand to understand the Russian language was high across the community.
The increasing divide between the Chinese migration community and China itself has worried them though as their hopes of improving the overall cultural relationship between them had taken a major road block which was not helped by China's increasing targeting of said community.
Hopefully this is up to par and does not contradict anything.
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Great update! As a statistic - between 1991 and 2004 around 4 million Chinese immigrants arrived to Russia.
Yes, in 2004 they were 2nd largest immigrant community in Russia after Ukrainians. Btw, the number of immigrants to Russia in 2020's could be as high as 30-40 million, which would be close to the United States, as countries with largest immigrant population in the world.
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I would say rather positive, as thanks to the actions and policies of the government the population, including immigrants, feel that the country is going in good direction and their lives which each passing year are becoming better. Of course, there are obstacles and problems here and there, but its completely natural.
Damn even if our population doesn't grow naturally and stagnates we will still pass that 200 milions cap by 2020. Russia will be looking pretty scary to the West with its fastly growing economy and population.
Makes sense. Not to mention years of Communism pretty much hardened Russians vis a vis West , so most probably don't really feel the need to see themselves as part of Western /European civilization and feel themselves a lot closer to rest of ex USSR and Ortodox World.
Plus West didn't help its cause with ceartin incident like bombing of Yugoslavia.
While most of immigrants are there mostly for better life and don't really have affection for Western culture.
But big question for me is view of Russia in popular culture? Like ceartin Japanese Shows? Western movies etc. I like to see outside perspective.
We will surpass 200 million easily in current form. Plus I have a feeling that Ukraine in current borders won't last till 2020s given overall trends and our long-term strategies. The differences between Western and Eastern Ukraine are growing stronger by each year, and the current political configuration in Kiev, where President is pro-Russian and the government is pro-Western won't last forever, so sooner or later there will be a deep crisis in Ukraine, that is what I have planned for the 2013-2014.
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