Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

[Pilatypus]

So there is a possibility of paying the debt much faster than OTL, since the economy isn't gone as deep as OTL, that should mean much faster recovery and less debt to be paid. Maybe by the end of Try's first term as elected president the debt would have been paid. If he can get the election to be done by public vote, he'll win it by landslide. There will probably be calls to limit the term of presidency to prevent Soeharto situation again, since Try was his successor. But that depends if his first time as president by being elevated from vice president counted or not, it was only half a year.

Edit : I found an interesting article by Rizal Ramli, which describes IMF as kinda incompetent and their 'halping' actually made many crisis' worse.
https://www.networkideas.org/featart/may2002/IMF_Myths.pdf
It really is in Indonesia's interest to get out of IMF's claws as soon as possible. It is also a good thing that Try's administration tries to defy as much IMF's prescription as possible and supplanting it with more local wisdom.

 

[GSD310]

I don’t want to respond too much to the first paragraph because there would be spoilers involved.

I think regarding Try and the IMF ITTL, the relationship is quite complex. As can be seen in the early updates, Try’s initial strategy is to obey the IMF’s terms as strictly as possible and then use the fact that they’ve been obedient and the fact that it doesn’t really help the situation in Indonesia as leverage to get leniency. This strategy has worked.

So the IMF has been lenient but on certain issues ie. ABRI reorganization they will criticize Try.

 

[GSD310]

16th July 1999:
In a small ceremony attended by JB Sumarlin, Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Governor of East Timor Clementino Dos Reis Amaral, and East Timor community figures including Mario Carrascalao and Bishop Belo, President Try signed the Special Administrative Region of East Timor Law. Try apologized for not being able to come to Dili citing scheduling conflicts.

After the signing ceremony there was a small swearing in ceremony in which Try swore in Brig. Gen. (Ret.) RS Warouw to be the President’s Permanent Representative to East Timor as mandated by the law.

17th July 1999:
Sitting on the porch of the Bogor Presidential Palace, the President had chicken porridge with his Four Horsemen State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto.

“The word I’ve received is that Tutut wants someone she can back to be a candidate at the PPP National Congress and to be a Chairman of the PPP who would be friendly to her”, said Ari Sudewo.

“Then she understands the political calculation”, said Harsudiono “For us the political calculation is even more obvious. The President’s relationship with the Chairwoman of Golkar being what it is, the next Chairman of the PPP has to be friendly towards the President.”

All in the meeting agreed with this.

“Any names that I should be considering?” Try asked.

To the person, all four members of Try’s inner circle recommended DPR Member and former Secretary of PPP (1989-1994) Matori Abdul Djalil.

“Make that five of us then”, said Try approving the choice.

18th July 1999:
While children slept on the last day of the holidays, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, accompanied by Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman, held a press conference to announce that fuel prices were being raised 50% to cut back on subsidies with electricity prices remaining the same.

This being the last day of the holidays, the nation was caught by surprise. Though the surprise quickly turned into curiosity over what steps the government would take next given that the May 1998 stimulus package was preceded by a raise in fuel prices.

19th July 1999:
As children begun their first day of school, Try held a full cabinet meeting early in the morning attended by Vice President JB Sumarlin and the ministers and the heads of the agencies. A media throng were called to gather at the State Secretariat building, remembering that the stimulus package of May 1998 had been announced immediately after the prices of fuel had been raised.

It was just after 10 AM that State Secretary Edi Sudrajat emerged out of the cabinet meeting to the conference room accompanied by a few ministers. Edi opened the proceedings with the introduction saying that the President is determined to pursue the goal of economic recovery and that part of that recovery is to ensure that the economy allows for full participation by all those in Indonesia who wish to participate in the economy. To create opportunities for all rather than for the few. As such, the following steps had been taken across the following areas:

Economics and National Development Planning:
Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono went on first. He announced that infrastructure building will be possible through public-private partnerships with either domestic or foreign private companies. Prior to this only toll roads and electricity generators are the only infrastructure open for public-private partnerships, something that had been taken advantage by those close to the previous president. Now distribution of natural gas, waste management, airports and ports as well as telecommunications facilities will be open to the private sector.

Agriculture, Food, and Cooperatives:
Minister of Agriculture, Food, and Cooperatives Sarwono Kusumaatmadja announced that in his area, the government will allow for rural cooperatives to be established and operate outside of the existing Village Unit Cooperatives (KUD). The KUD was a government-sponsored cooperatives set up to become the nerve center of the village economy. It was the KUD’s role for example, that purchase rice from farmers and in turn sell the rice to Bulog. The KUD would also function to distribute fertilizers and credit to farmers.

Under the new arrangements, cooperatives in rural areas will be encouraged to grow, fulfil some of the functions of the KUD such as distributing fertilizers and credit, and provide competition for the KUD while farmers will be encouraged to sell crops other than rice to the new cooperatives.

“On the cooperatives side, we want to take off the training wheels which the KUD has worn for 25 years while on the farming side we want to encourage more production by giving farmers alternative channels for their products to reach the market”, said Sarwono “The purchase of rice from farmers will still be the purview of the KUD.”

Industry, Research, and Technology:
The microphone was next passed to Minister of Industry, Research, and Technology Siswono Yudohusodo. Siswono announced that he will be abolishing the cement reference price. Cement was categorized as a strategic commodity by the government in the seventies and its price was determined by the Minister of Industry. In practice, cement prices was the subject of annual negotiations and bargaining between the government and the ASI with the negotiations tending to conclude in favor of the businessmen.

“Now the price of cement will be determined by the market and cement companies who could be productive and efficient will be rewarded” announced Siswono “We hope this will give the best prices for an important material the construction industry and encourage the construction sector.”

Telecommunications:
Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra unveiled plans to introduce a Telecommunications Bill into the DPR. Part of this bill will seek to undo the monopoly currently enjoyed by State-Owned Telecommunications Company Telkom.

Transportation:
The serious face of Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja then announced a deregulation of the aviation sector. Companies owning a minimum of two aircrafts whose flight worthiness has been certified will be permitted to establish an airline, choose what routes it wants to fly in, and decide what price they want to sell their tickets so long as it is within a floor and ceiling set by the government. A Presidential Directive signed in 1980 listing types of aircrafts which are not permitted to be imported into Indonesia has been revoked.

This step will open up competition in an airline sector which has thus far contained only 5 airlines.

Finance:
The final announcement belonged to Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad. He announced two things:

-Donations out of the civil servants and ABRI members’ salaries towards Soeharto’s YAMP Foundation to be made voluntary rather than compulsory.

-Donations by individuals and companies earning over Rp. 100 million per annum to the amount of 2% of these individual and companies’ net after tax income to be made voluntary rather than compulsory.

Later on that evening on TVRI, the Vice President was interviewed about the policies announced that day. When asked what was the overarching theme of the policy package, Sumarlin said “I think the central theme of the policy package is to remove any barrier to economic recovery. These barriers are luxuries that could be afforded during good economic times such as before the Asian Financial Crisis but when we are in a position of going for economic recovery such as what we are doing now, these barriers could no longer be afforded and need to be removed.”

The Rupiah strengthened to Rp. 4,572 to the dollar on the back of this announcement after previously reaching a low of Rp. 4,604 mark after the ABRI Reorganization announcement.

20th July 1999:
Interviewed on his way inside the DPR building, DPR member Ary Mardjono expressed the concern that the Indonesian economy is being taken in a liberal direction and that the policies of “Our late President Soeharto” was beginning to be taken apart to the detriment of the Indonesian people.

Governor of Lampung Oemarsono who previously tended to be critical of the central government said that he was all in favor of the policies which the central government had approved.

The Rupiah strengthened again to Rp. 4,542 to the dollar today.

21st July 1999:
In a press conference, Governor of Central Java Prabowo Subianto said that he supports the policies advocated by the government but that he will continue to support the KUD in Central Java and ensure that they do not become “Extinct”. This statement was countered later in the day by Commander of the Central Java Regional Military Command Endriartono Sutarto said that he will deal personally with all those who undermine the President’s policies in Central Java.

Try met with Chairman of DPR Harmoko to discuss the various bills that are being discussed in the DPR at the moment. Harmoko says that he looks forward to the Telecommunications Bill. There were some political issues to be discussed.

“We still need to fill the 2 vacancies left behind by Indra Bambang Utoyo and Agung Laksono, Mr. President”, said Harmoko.

“I would, Mr. Chairman”, said Try “But the law requires that the Chairwoman of Golkar nominate a replacement member to you and then we can discuss it. And we all know that I’m not on speaking terms with the Chairwoman of Golkar.”

22nd July 1999:
The highlight today in Jakarta was the sight of Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut visiting Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid at the NU Headquarters. They discussed various matters including the PPP National Congress where Tutut let slip that she would like to see a NU member become the next Chairman of the PPP.

When Tutut and Wahid emerged to face the press, the attention was not so much on the PPP National Congress as it was on Tutut’s reaction to the policy package announced by the government.

“Well such decisions are for the President to make”, replied Tutut “If his policies prove to be successful that’s all well and good and it does not prove to be good then he will have to be held to account by the MPR.”

“Does it bother you that there are parts of President Soeharto’s policies which have been revoked?” asked a journalist.

“Policies change over time, President Soeharto’s policies are revoked by President Try, what’s not to say that President Try’s policies could not be revoked by his successor?” challenged Tutut.

“Gus Dur, two years ago you said that Mbak Tutut is a figure for the future, do you still stand by that statement?” asked another journalist.

“I do though. As I’ve said at the time, what she will become is up to her”, continued Wahid.

23rd July 1999:
The President met with Hayono Isman and Sugeng Subroto. He charged them with ensuring that the policy steps taken on Monday are implemented and that steps are taken to support those policies.

Vice Chairman of DPR/Chairman of PPP Ismail Hasan Metareum announced today that he will not be running for the Chairmanship of the PPP at the PPP National Congress.

24th July 1999:
ABRI issued a statement declaring its support for the policy package enacted by the President the previous Monday and promising to take “firm action” against those who want to disturb the implementation of the policy package. The statement was signed by Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar, Navy Chief of Staff Soeratmin, Air Force Chief of Staff Hanafie Asnan, Chief of Police Luthfi Dahlan, Deputy Commander of ABRI Johnny Lumintang, ABRI Chief of General Staff Luhut Panjaitan, and ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs Staff Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

More prominently, Governor of Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono X took out a newspaper ad to publish a joint statement which he had formulated and which he had gotten all the other governors, including Prabowo and Governor Syarwan Hamid of Riau even though they did it reluctantly, to sign (he had sent a courier to travel around Indonesia collecting signatures). The statement expressed the provinces’ desire to implement the policies which the President had approved in the policy package and promised to commit the provinces’ bureaucracies to that end.

Try struggled to suppress a smile reading these statements. It was well worth it cutting the deals with the provinces and ABRI.

25th July 1999:
Though it was a Sunday, Try and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita put in an appearance at the Palace. India’s Minister of External Affairs Jaswant Singh paid a visit en route to the ASEAN Regional Forum which was held in Singapore tomorrow. Jaswant Singh explained India’s position in the Kargil War to which the President responded that he was glad the conflict was coming to an end because what’s best would be stability in the region.

26th July 1999:
The President today invited Abdurrahman Wahid to lunch. They talked about various things but most especially about the PPP National Congress. Try revealed that he would like to support Matori to Wahid. Wahid replied that that was to be expected. Try then asked Wahid to throw his support behind Matori. Wahid told Try what he and Tutut discussed last week.

“I believe that she will throw her weight behind a Chairman of PPP candidate who has an NU background”, said Wahid “At which point the NU support will be divided.”

“What do you think my best move should be?” asked Try.

“Get Amien Rais involved, get him to throw Muhammadiyah’s support behind Matori”, said Wahid “You and he might not see eye to eye on most things, but I mean it when I say that you two have got a thing in common in terms of your attitude towards Tutut and the Soeharto children.”

Hayono Isman announced that the President has approved the formation of an Infrastructure Planning Committee. This committee will function to plan, prioritize, implement, and coordinate Indonesia’s various infrastructure projects. It will be Co-Chaired by Secretary of the Department of Finance Dono Iskandar Djojosubroto and Special Staff to the President for Infrastructure Ruslan Diwiryo.

27th July 1999:
The President, accompanied by Minister Of Education Wardiman Djojonegoro, and Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso inspected primary, junior high, and high schools around Jakarta; this being the second week of the school year. The stops were arranged at random, catching the principals by surprise. Try asked the principals about enrollments and all reported that enrollments remained steady throughout the crisis. Try walked around the school and looked into the windows of various classrooms. He didn’t want to cause a fuss but most of the children immediately recognized him from his photograph but wanted a closer look.

DPR Member Matori Abdul Djalil announced his candidacy for the chairmanship of the PPP. When asked why he wanted to nominate, Matori said he wanted a PPP that would not be ambivalent towards the good work that is being done by the government.

28th July 1999:
From all the way in Paris where the Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI) met, Soedradjad Djiwandono and Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a joint conference to announce that the CGI will be disbursing $5 billion in aid. Soedradjad said that this represents the CGI’s continuing faith in Indonesia’s economic recovery.

The Leader of the PPP in the DPR Hamzah Haz announced his candidacy for the chairmanship of the PPP. This was as Wahid predicted for Hamzah had a NU background. Hamzah wanted PPP to be “A partner, but a critical one” towards the government.

The first person Hamzah met after announcing his candidacy was Tutut. Tutut said that the PPP’s internal matters was a concern for the PPP and its members but said that if she was a PPP member she would support Hamzah.

29th July 1999:
The President met with Harsudiono Hartas who was giving him an update on how the Amendments to the Regional Government Bill and the National and the Central and Regional Governments Fiscal Balance Bill was progressing through the DPR. The more intense discussion was about the upcoming PPP National Congress.

“There has to be a moment where you openly show your support for Matori and not when it’s too late, Mr. President”, advised Harsudiono “That was our mistake last time at the Golkar National Congress and we ended up with Tutut.”

“I’ll be sure to do that”, said Try.

“Then there’s the PPP’s internal dynamics that you have to address, Mr. President” continued Harsudiono “I thought we could count on the NU votes to get Matori across the line but not after Hamzah Haz threw his hat in the ring, now the NU vote is divided.”

“You’re not going to tell me the same thing that Gus Dur told me, right?” said Try “That I have to go over and hold hands with Amien Rais.”

“I don’t see how else you can play it, Mr. President”, replied Harsudiono “The NU vote in the PPP is divided. The Muhammadiyah vote is up for grabs now that Metareum’s declared that he’s not going to run for re-election.

And there’s also the fact that Muhammadiyah didn’t get a share in the cabinet reshuffle in April. There’s some complaint about that reaching my ear whenever I go to the regions.”

“I ran out of slots and I’m not about to reshuffle the cabinet again”, said Try.

“We have to try to least neutralize Muhammadiyah if we want to give Matori a chance”, insisted Harsudiono “And that means talking to Amien Rais.”

30th July 1999:
Minister of Public Works, Housing, and Urban Development Rachmat Witoelar announced the abolition of the requirement that all those seeking construction contracts in the department must be a member of the Indonesian Nasional Construction Contractors Association (Gapensi), the Indonesian Contractors’ Association (AKI), and the Indonesian National Consultants’ Association (Inkindo). Rachmat said all contractors with a bid that fulfils the requirements must be rightfully awarded a contract.

Hamzah Haz continues his tour to gather support for his bid for the Chairmanship of PPP. This time he visited Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie for Friday Prayer and lunch. When he came out, Hamzah happily announced that he had gained Habibie’s support.

In his office, Try rubbed his chin as he watched Hamzah Haz’ statement. There has to be an explanation for Habibie supporting Hamzah’s candidacy but if it was true, Hamzah will be running for the chairmanship of the PPP with the support of both Tutut and Habibie. The PPP National Congress was becoming more complicated than what he had expected.

---
All of the policies approved on 19th July 1999 were all enacted OTL by different presidents at different times. Soeharto approved of public private partnership in infrastructure in 1998, Habibie allowed for rural cooperatives to compete against the KUD and the telecommunications deregulation, Wahid approved of airline deregulation.

The PPP National Congress will be the next big political event.

For all the non-Indonesians, Gus Dur is the nickname of Abdurrahman Wahid.

 

[GSD310]

31st July 1999:
It was a Saturday morning tea at Bogor Presidential Palace for President Try Sutrisno and DPR Member/Candidate for Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil. Try told Matori that the latter had been a great partner for the government within the PPP and that he would like to see Matori emerge victorious in the PPP National Congress. The two then faced the media throng together.

“Well it’s up to the PPP National Congress to decide who will be the next Chairman of the PPP but I think that Mr. Matori will be a constructive partner for the government in the DPR”, said Try.

“Are you implying that there are unconstructive partners inside the DPR at the moment?” asked a Western Journalist.

Try ignored the question and posed for pictures with Matori.

2nd August 1999:
After the beginning-of-the-week meeting with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat, Deputy State Secretary Soedibyo Rahardjo, Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman, Military Secretary Mardiyanto, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto, Try was approached by Soedibyo Rahardjo. Soedibyo, whose daughter was married to BJ Habibie’s son, said he had talked about Habibie about the latter’s stance in the PPP National Congress.

“He cut a deal with Hamzah Haz all the way back at the 1998 MPR Session”, said Soedibyo “Win or lose in the presidential election, Habibie promised that he would put his and ICMI’s support behind Hamzah at the PPP National Congress. This would also explain why Tutut is interested in Hamzah as candidate for the Chairman of PPP not only would this divide the NU vote within the PPP, but he’d attract support from ICMI as well.”

While Try thought about this he went on with the major event of the day. He received the SEA Games Athletes Contingent accompanied by Chairman of KONI IGK Manila. The Contingent will depart for Brunei Darussalam the next day to take part in the South East Asian Games hosted there on the 7th.

3rd August 1999:
At the DPR Building, DPR members Hartono and Ary Mardjono held a joint press conference. The two said that there has been a lot wrong with government policies lately among these are the Special Administrative Region of East Timor Law which “practically” gave independence to East Timor and the 19th July Policy Package which turned the Indonesian economy in a liberal direction.

Hartono said that as a result of this, he and the members of the Hartono Caucus within Golkar will be conducting an extensive review of the Amendments to the Regional Government Law Bill and the Central and Regional Governments Fiscal Balance Bill, collectively known as the Two Regional Autonomy Bills. They will scrutinize it with extreme prejudice to ensure that it does not take the nation away from the course set down by the late President Soeharto.

“Are these steps taken with the knowledge of the Chairwoman of Golkar?” asked a journalist.

“Not only with the knowledge but with the awareness and approval of the Chairwoman of Golkar”, Hartono replied.

4th August 1999:
Minister of Agriculture, Food, and Cooperatives Sarwono Kusumaatmadja appeared on TVRI’s morning show. He defended the 19th July Policy Package and wondered how the policies there could be misinterpreted as liberal.

“I haven’t let our national market be flooded by agricultural produce from overseas”, Sarwono said “I guess liberal is when those with special economic privileges begin to lose their economic privileges.”

Meanwhile, President Try met with his Legislative War Council comprising of Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Vice Chairman of DPR from ABRI Hari Sabarno, Leader of Golkar in the DPR Irsyad Sudiro, and Leader of ABRI in the DPR Fachrul Rozi as well as Edi Sudrajat and Soedibyo Rahardjo. Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas sat in on the meeting as well considering the bills that Hartono and Ary Mardjono waned to hold up in the DPR was his.

“What I want to know is, is this just posturing?” asked Try.

“Mr. President, we have reason to believe that they are quite serious about blocking passage of the Two Regional Autonomy Bills, this despite the fact that up until now they’ve gone along out of respect for the consensus you’ve reached with the governors back in May”, said Hari Sabarno “Essentially what they’re doing is they want to review the bills again just as it’s about to be voted on.”

“The thing is unlike the Banking Bill earlier this year they’ve given us some terms on which they’ll back down”, piped Irsyad Sudiro handing a piece of paper to Try. Try read it then handed it to Harmoko.

“They’ll let the bills be passed into law if the President would withdraw his support from Matori”, read Harmoko “That’s outrageous. That’s blackmail.”

“We can always just run over them like we did with the Banking Bill, right?” asked Edi Sudrajat.

“We can but the majority vote from that bill is being eroded”, replied Irsyad “When we passed the Banking Law, the vote was 388-112. When we passed the Special Administrative Region of East Timor Law, the vote was 369-129.”

“They gained votes, we lost votes”, muttered Try.

“Appeals for loyalty to Soeharto having an effect?” asked Harsudiono.

“That”, said Irsyad “But I’m hearing reports that some negative inducements are involved as well. I’ve been getting these anonymous letters from DPR members from Golkar. They’re claiming that people from the Hartono Caucus said that if they don’t support delays in the passing of the two bills related to Regional Autonomy, that they can kiss re-election goodbye because the Chairwoman will not look too kindly on them.”

Harsudiono and Edi made a meaningful stare.

Not long after that the meeting broke up. Try disappeared into his office with Harmoko while Edi and Harsudiono trailed the small group.

“You’re thinking about the conversation we had with Alip Pandoyo some months back”, said Edi “About how we should be creating a sub-organization inside of Golkar as a place of refuge for the President’s supporters.”

“I am”, replied Harsudiono “Have you told the President about this conversation?”

“I haven’t”, said Edi “Should I be telling him?”

“No, there’ll be time for him to address Tutut threatening to make it difficult for DPR members to be re-elected”, said Harsudiono “Right now the President needs to focus on the PPP National Congress and what he needs to do to get a favorable result out of it.”

5th August 1999:
Facing something of an interrogation in the DPR on the government’s policy package, Junior Minister of Cooperatives Muslimin Nasution said that he does not feel the economy is heading in a liberal direction and said that this is the spur cooperatives need to better themselves in terms of management. He jokes that it’s a good thing he’s friends with Sarwono, otherwise the prospect of conflict is very real.

Try met with Vice President JB Sumarlin today and made the decision to disband the Inter-Departmental Committee on East Timor which Sumarlin had been chairing since there are other arrangements regarding the governance of that province which are in effect now. Sumarlin would now be appointed to Chair a Renegotiation of Existing Government Contracts Committee and would have the authority to renegotiate existing government contracts if it has terms which does not have beneficial terms to the government.

6th August 1999:
At the National Monument just in front of the Presidential Palace, President Try today opened the Indonesian Production Exhibition to mark the 54th Anniversary of Independence. The previous year’s event had been cancelled due to low interest and the still uncertain economic conditions. This year, both Minister of Industry, Research, and Technology Siswono Yudohusodo and Minister of Trade and Investment Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti insisted that the event go ahead. The two ministers proudly flanked Try as he walked to various stands inspecting everything from leather bags to rattan handicrafts.

Already waiting for Try at the Palace to accompany him for Friday prayer and lunch was Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais. The two began formally with each other though the meeting warmed up when Try admitted how brave Amien was calling for Soeharto to end his presidency in 1998 and Amien acknowledging that Try had handled the economic crisis well.

“…you are handling the crisis well indeed, Mr. President”, said Amien “It’s just that your leadership is being undermined by the Chairwoman of Golkar.”

“That sums up the situation perfectly”, said Try diplomatically.

Try explained the situation to Amien who understood it perfectly well that with Tutut and Habibie, the latter reluctantly, on Hamzah Haz’ side, the President wanted Amien Rais to throw the Muhammadiyah support inside the PPP behind Matori’s candidacy. Amien thought about it carefully.

“Gus Dur is right, we’re natural allies as far as taking on Tutut is concerned”, began Amien “But we’re in politics here. There has to be a price for my support.”

“Name it”, said Try.

7th August 1999:
“Mr. President, with all due respect you should’ve promised Amien Rais a cabinet spot for someone from Muhammadiyah”, said Harsudiono “As it stands, we haven’t concluded anything with him.”

“I reshuffled the cabinet 3 months ago”, said Try to Harsudiono and the rest of his Four Horsemen “I’m not reshuffling it again unless there’s pressing circumstances. There has to be more of a reason for a reshuffle than politics.”

Harsudiono gritted his teeth but OCDS Sugeng Subroto calmed him down.

“I think it’s unwise if the President keeps reshuffling the cabinet everytime political expediency requires it”, explained Sugeng “It’s not going to convey stability and if he can’t convey stability, economic recovery will be made all the more difficult.”

“What do you think from an intelligence perspective?” asked Try as he turned to Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo “Do we need Amien Rais?”

“The political calculation that Harsudiono’s put forward to you is correct”, said Ari Sudewo “You need a friendly Chairman of the PPP elected at this congress and in order to achieve that you need the Muhammadiyah-affiliated votes in the PPP to go to Matori instead of to Hamzah. That’s one reason.

Another reason is that we have to make up for losing Megawati Soekarnoputri’s guy in the cabinet reshuffle. Sure, Megawati’s not hostile to you the way Tutut is but she doesn’t have a stake in the government anymore which means she’s a free agent now, she can do whatever she wants.”

There was silence as Try and the other men in the room thought it through. The silence was broken by Ari who was still not finished.

“The final reason is that sooner or later Tutut will retaliate, Mr. President”, continued Ari “You’ve consolidated Sudharmono and Ginandjar, Habibie, Harmoko, and Wahono’s supports; you’ve consolidated the provinces’ support; you’ve also consolidated ABRI’s support. Your position has gotten stronger but we’ve pushed her into a corner. God knows what Tutut will do from that corner.

My intelligence tells me that at present, with each political deal you’ve struck, Tutut is listening more and more to Prabowo’s advice. Supporting Hamzah Haz’ candidacy because it will split Matori’s support base and draw Habibie in as well is light years’ more sophisticated than upstaging the government at the King of Jordan’s funeral. Such a maneuver could only have come from Prabowo but Tutut is listening to him, now more than ever.

The other Soeharto siblings still don’t trust Prabowo but they’re not getting in the way of Prabowo’s advice getting to Tutut. The only Prabowo advice that they’re cautioning their big sister against is Prabowo’s suggestion that Tutut should include Amien Rais and Muhammadiyah in their coalition. Prabowo’s positively predisposed towards Amien but the other siblings think that Amien Rais has spoken too harshly against Soeharto and against them to be worthy of consideration as a political ally.”

9th August 1999:
Politicking is cast aside for the moment as Try welcomes Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar arrives in Jakarta for a visit. In their initial talks Aznar said that he sees Indonesia as a strategic partner in Southeast Asia for Spain and that he accepts that East Timor is part of Indonesia. Try said that there is a mutually beneficial relationship to be had between Indonesia and Spain. Spain can be Indonesia’s entrypoint into the European Union Market and Indonesia can be Spain’s entry point into the ASEAN Market.

While Try held a State Dinner for Aznar later in the day and with all of the attention drawn to that dinner, Ari Sudewo paid a visit to Amien Rais’ home.

10th August 1999:
The President today accompanied Aznar to Bandung to visit the IPTN factories headquartered there. Also along for the ride were Junior Minister of Research and Technology Indra Bambang Utoyo, Chairman of the BPIS Sintong Panjaitan and none other than the Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie himself. It was a fitting day for a visit to the site because exactly 4 years earlier, the IPTN’s CN-235 took to the air for the first time.

Aznar was pleased to see IPTN’s planes. In a special press conference, Aznar said that Spain is presently working on the C-295 and signed a deal with the BPIS that the C-295 will be assembled at IPTN’s factories to be distributed to buyers in Southeast Asia and that IPTN engineers will receive training to this end. This announcement received a great applause.

Amongst the day’s event, Try and Habibie discussed the PPP National Congress. Habibie said that he made the commitment to Hamzah Haz not knowing how things would turn out. Try accepted this explanation and spoke about his meeting with Amien Rais.

“Really? He asked for a cabinet spot?” asked Habibie looking shocked “To think he told me not to bend over backwards hoping for more seats in the cabinet for ICMI during the reshuffle a few months back.”

Back in Jakarta, Harmoko announced in a press conference that the vote for the Two Regional Autonomy Bills will go ahead tomorrow as he believes those who are still loyal to the government still command a majority in the DPR.

11th August 1999:
The Amendments to the Regional Government Law Bill which confirms that deconcentration will be the principle used in regional autonomy was passed in the DPR today 380 votes to 118.

The Central and Regional Government Fiscal Balance Bill which outlines the division of revenue between the central, provincial, regency and municipality governments was also passed by the same number of votes.

Harsudiono Hartas, who was in the audience when the bill was passed looked relieved. He did the vote count in his head and realized that the votes in support of the government had gained 11 votes. He began to wonder about the source of the votes when a hand tapped him on the shoulder.

“Yes, the 11 votes are from PPP members; yes, these PPP members had Muhammadiyah origins; yes, Amien Rais swayed them to change their votes”, explained Ari Sudewo.

“You got him to commit? He’ll be throwing support Matori’s way at the PPP National Congress?” asked Harsudiono.

“Amien Rais was ready to commit, it’s the President who I had to strike a deal with”, laughed Ari Sudewo “I gave him a solution that gave Muhammadiyah a seat in the government without reshuffling the cabinet and he accepted.”

Harsudiono smiled, it was the best news he heard all week.

12th August 1999:
The President today was scheduled to meet the Chairwoman of Golkar to decide on who would fill the vacant DPR seats left behind by Indra Bambang Utoyo and Agung Laksono when they took up their appointments as ministers.

Edi’s eyes narrowed when he went to welcome Tutut but saw that the person who arrived was Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani who said that Tutut had delegated this meeting to him. Edi sent an aide to tell the President to stay put and not attend the meeting because Tutut is “avoiding meeting you” and told Maulani that the President has also delegated the meeting to him.

The meeting went ahead. The two DPR members agreed were Rambe Kamarulzaman, a Harmoko supporter who headed Golkar’s Youth Department when the latter was Chairman of Golkar, and Fuad Bawazier, a former Director General of Taxation who was known to be friendly to the Soeharto family. One appointment favored Try, the other favored Tutut.

The joint press conference afterwards was awkward as Edi and Maulani struggled to explain why the President and the Chairwoman of Golkar were not able to meet today.

Later that night Former Vice President Sudharmono received a phonecall from fellow Former Vice President Umar Wirahadikusumah. The two spoke not only about what had happened that day but also about what has been happening in the close to a year of Tutut’s Chairwomanship of Golkar. Until that day they had thought that the sight of Try and Tutut openly backing different candidates for the chairmanship of the PPP was a low enough point already but the fact that Try and Tutut wouldn’t even sit down, meet, and agree on 2 replacement DPR members was concerning. Sudharmono, well-represented though he was in the cabinet, could not help but agree about how uncomfortable the “cold war” that went on between Try and Tutut was like.

By the end of the phonecall, the two former vice presidents had agreed that they were going to make an intervention and attempt to broker a peace between Try and Tutut.

---
ITTL Amien Rais was the Amien Rais who was on road to becoming the leader of Reformasi but never got that chance because Soeharto passed away. He’s critical of Try’s government for being part of the IMF program but sees the bigger danger to Indonesia as being Soeharto’s children still running around hence ITTL Abdurrahman Wahid’s comment that Try and Amien are natural allies. Still, one can never be too trusting of Amien.

The conversation referred to in Edi and Harsudiono’s conversation comes from 7th March 1999 ITTL.

 

[GSD310]

13th August 1999:
At the Presidential Palace, President Try Sutrisno presides over an Awards and Decorations ceremony. Singled out for special award this year was the deceased Mrs. Rahmi Hatta, the first Second Lady, who was given the Bintang Republik Indonesia Second Class for her extraordinary efforts in maintaining the unity and integrity of Indonesia.

16th August 1999:
Selected Excerpts from President Try Sutrisno’s State Address to the DPR

“Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.

Mr. Chairman, Honorable Vice Chairmen, Honorable members of the DPR, and fellow Indonesians,

The Indonesian nation stands today on the eve of the 54th Anniversary of its Independence, still young when measured by the standards of other nations but old enough to consider the journey we have made and are still making as a nation…

Last year, I spoke of keeping the New Order relevant and I spoke of keeping it relevant to the regions which has not been touched by development and those who entertained notions of leaving the Republic…

Today I proudly point to the fact that DPR has passed a law which has empowered the government to delegate certain responsibilities to the provincial and the regency/municipal governments under the principle of deconcentration…

…The DPR has also passed a law which has given larger shares of the revenue to the provinces, regencies, and municipalities so that they can better improve their services and direct funding to projects that are most directly relevant to their needs. I call upon all officials from all levels of government to take their part in preparing their respective regions for these new financial arrangements scheduled to take effect at the beginning of the next fiscal year 1st April 2000…

…For those of us who sit here, the matter of East Timor was resolved 23 years ago in 1976. It is with great pride that I inform this honorable assembly and the people of Indonesia that the matter has been resolved once and for all in the eyes of the international community 2 months ago. In exchange for Special Administrative Region Status for East Timor, the international community but more specifically the United Nations and Portugal are now willing to acknowledge and recognize Indonesia’s sovereignty over the Province of East Timor…”

Our most immediate national challenge remains economic recovery. Our economic growth for 1998 was 3.9% and though this is larger than some of our neighbors’ economic growths and better than even the government has hoped for, we cannot afford to lose focus.

The nation’s tourism and export sectors are doing well though our manufacturing sector is still struggling and our construction sector even more so…The major stepsthe government has taken in the economic field such as the BLBI repayment arrangements last September, the lowering of interest rates last October, and the 11th March Policy Package are taken to this end.

Most recently, the government released the 19th July Policy Package which allowed for rural farmers to sell to cooperatives other than the KUD and for other cooperatives other than the KUD to be established in villages; which has allowed for cement prices to be determined by the market; which deregulated the aviation industry; which allowed for public sector and private sector partnerships in infrastructure development; which will seek to introduce a bill to break the monopoly in the telecommunications sector; and which abolishes compulsory donation by businesses and civil servants like to certain charitable foundations.

When the times are good, when economic growth is reaching is full potential, these seem to us like tolerable indulgences. In times when we are struggling, these policies are barriers to our economy recovering as quickly as possible.

These policies are taken with the national interest at heart. During these times, the most unproductive thing the nation can do is to engage in debates about whether or not certain policies are nationalist, liberal, or socialist. There is only the national interest and whether or not decisions are made for the sake of that interest…

In my first address to the nation, I said that we are all in this together. I remain a firm believer in that ideal for it is in being together in our nation’s times of struggle, in being together in our nation’s road to recovery, and in being together in our nation’s best times that our nation will become truly united in its pursuit of a Just and Prosperous Society based on Pancasila.

May the Grace of God be upon us on this the 53rd Anniversary of our Nation’s Independence.

Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh.”

17th August 1999:
For Try, presiding over the Independence Day Flagraising Ceremony at the Presidential Palace with Vice President JB Sumarlin was just the tip of the iceberg.

Once the Flagraising Ceremony and the National Songs had finished being played, there was a law-signing ceremony. Seated at table with Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and all 27 provincial governors standing behind him, the President signed both the Amendments to the 1974 Regional Government Law Bill and the Central and Regional Governments Fiscal Balance Bill into laws.

There were a lot of guests from the nation’s political elite for Try to greet. The entire room cheered when he shook hands with Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto though their cold body language after the handshake indicated that they were only just being polite with each other.

People talked and mingled and intrigued with each other:

-Tutut chatted happily with Megawati Soekarnoputri as though they were old friends while Chairman of PDI Soerjadi looked on from the other side of the room worried.

-Governor of Central Java Prabowo Subianto talked with former Commander of ABRI Feisal Tanjung and DPR Member Hartono. He said that after the PPP National Congress, it’ll be clear who’s in Try’s Coalition and who’s in Tutut’s Coalition. Prabowo said that the “Try Offensive is coming to an end and then it’ll be time for my Sister-in-law to use the full weight of the Chairwomanship of Golkar.”

-DPR Member and candidate for Chairman of PPP Hamzah Haz was seen in discussion with BJ Habibie. Meanwhile Matori Abdul Djalil, DPR Member and also candidate for the Chairmanship of PPP, was involved in a four-way chat with Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Amien Rais and Incumbent Chairman of PPP Ismail Hasan Metareum.

-In a corner of the Presidential Palace, Benny Moerdani sat down with Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid. Both men were close friends, Wahid having written the introduction to Benny’s biography a few years back. Both now struggled with their health though their minds are as sharp as ever.

“Is it true that Sudharmono is trying to broker a peace between the President and Tutut?” asked Wahid.

“He and Vice President Umar would have to get them to sit down at the same table first”, replied Benny “But yes, what you’ve heard is true”

“I thought Sudharmono is one of us”, said Wahid.

“He is and he’ll continue to be. After all, it’s his bunch of guys that did the best in the cabinet reshuffle”, growled Benny “I don’t think it’ll change anything. Whether he intended it or not, Try’s alliance is very anti-Tutut. Harmoko, Habibie, Wahono, and then you’ve got Amien Rais running around now trying to be part of the team. These aren’t guys who’ll come to Tutut’s aid. There might be a few like Sudharmono who has a soft spot for Soeharto or someone like you who keep your line of communications open with everyone but I think you’re still okay.”

Former vice presidents Sudharmono and Umar emerged out of President Try’s office. It had been a tiring few hours as they met first Tutut and then Try. They walked past Benny and Wahid sitting on a sofa in a waiting room.

“Misters Vice President”, said Benny “How did you do?”

“Well they agreed to meet after the PPP National Congress so that has to count for something”, said Sudharmono.

“After the PPP National Congress?” asked Wahid chuckling “It’s not that good of a news because it just means they want to slug it out.”

18th August 1999:
The President today welcomed the Indonesian contingent to the Southeast Asian Games which ended on the 15th. The contingent was accompanied by Chairman of KONI IGK Manila who reported that Indonesia placed second in the medal tally with 158 medals, behind first place Thailand who had 164 medals.

In a press conference, Amien Rais officially announced that he will be supporting Matori Abdul Djalil’s candidacy for the chairmanship of the PPP and encouraged all Muhammadiyah members in the PPP to vote for Matori. Amien repeated the President’s line that Matori will provide the government with a constructive partner in the DPR.

When a journalist asked if there are any unconstructive partners for the government in the DPR, Amien bluntly said “It’s one thing to critically debate legislation proposed by the government, it’s another thing entirely to try to get in the way and block and stop the government from conducting its duties. I think we all know who these unconstructive partners are.”

19th August 1999:
Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunication Oka Mahendra today was set to introduce the new Telecommunications Bill at the DPR. He was in the middle of reading his statement when Hartono, who was in the DPR Committee responsible for information and telecommunications, interrupted him; saying that this bill was unconstitutional because it sought to liberalize the telecommunications sector when telecommunications is a sector that concerns the livelihood of many and thus should remain in the hands of the state.

From the government supporting side, DPR Member Jakob Tobing said it’s about the fact that Telkom acting alone in the telecommunications sector as inefficient and that “We can’t expect to wait for Telkom to hook everyone up to both landlines and mobile phones when there’s a large demand for telecommunications.”

When the two members nearly came into blows and had to be kept apart, Vice Chairman of DPR Theo Sambuaga closed proceedings and said that the bill ought to be re-introduced at a different time.

Try and Edi watched these developments on the television screen. Try turned off the TV and thought things through for a moment.

“Well if she wants to keep playing hardball then I’m going to have to oblige”, Try said.

20th August 1999:
Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro announced that Tommy Soeharto’s status has been changed from suspect to accused, that his Bulog Landswap case files will be submitted to court as soon as possible, and that he can expect a day in court in due course.

---
Medal Tally at OTL 1999 SEA Games. The difference ITTL is because Indonesia has more money to spend on training the athletes and thus they are able to do better.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Southeast_Asian_Games#Medal_table

It's still Tuesday in Jakarta but an early Happy Elections' Day for the Indonesians on these forums.

 

[SkylineDreamer]

Happy Indonesian election day!!

Hope our decision 5 years to come will be our best.

 

[Gajah_Nusantara]

Selamat Hari Pemilu!

Happy Election Day!

Jangan Lupa Pilih pada 17 April!

Don't forget to vote on April 17th

 

[GSD310]

23rd August 1999:
A press statement by Tommy Soeharto’s lawyers states that “our client will respect the law” but that “it is within our clients’ rights to defend himself in front of a free trial and that is what he will do”.

At Halim Airforce Base at dawn, President Try Sutrisno departed for Hong Kong at the head of a sizeable ministerial delegation. Upon arrival Try had a working lunch with Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa to discuss economic cooperation.

The highlight of the visit was his meet and greet session with Indonesian migrant workers, most of whom were working in Hong Kong as household maids. In the midst of a question and answer session which turned into an experience-sharing session of what it was like working as a maid in Hong Kong. Try took the opportunity to announce that he had approved of the formation of an Indonesian Workforce Placement and Protection National Agency (BNP2TKI). Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris who went along for the visit said that the new agency will integrate coordination between departments over the matter of Indonesian workforces sent abroad including taking care of such matters as training and protection of Indonesian migrant workers.

24th August 1999:
Try lunched with Vice President of China Hu Jintao who came from the mainland to greet Try on behalf of President Jiang Zemin. Try said that Indonesia will remain true to the One China Policy to which Hu said that China acknowledges Indonesia’s sovereignty over East Timor. Try said he looks forward to meeting Jiang Zemin at APEC next month.

Accompanied by Tung Chee Hwa, Try went up by tram to the Peak. After enjoying the sight and sounds of Hong Kong for a while, the President headed to the airport.

The next stop was Saudi Arabia. Try spent sometime on the flight there looking at the news back at home accompanied by State Secretary Edi Sudrajat and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita. The news from back home included:

-DPR Member Matori Abdul Djalil continued his campaign for the PPP Chairmanship accompanied by former Chairman of Golkar Wahono.

-Matori’s rival as candidate Hamzah Haz also continued his campaign accompanied by ICMI Member Hartono and Secretary of ICMI Adi Sasono.

Ginandjar asked Try what he intended to do about Sudharmono’s intention to facilitate a peace between Try and Tutut. Try said that right now it’s up to Tutut to show her good intentions.

25th August 1999:
Arriving in the morning after an overnight flight, Try was greeted warmly by King Fahd of Saudi Arabia after which they headed to Al Yamamah Palace for talks.

While the President and the King of Saudi Arabia discussed various issues, Minister of Religious Affairs Quraish Shihab was at a meeting with officials from the Saudi Arabian Embassy to explain the new Hajj Pilgrimage Law. Quraish called upon the embassy to emphasize continuous improvement in improving services for Hajj Pilgrims and establish standard operating procedures.

Back in Jakarta, Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie campaigned for Hamzah Haz though his continual emphasis that he was “just fulfilling a commitment made” ended up creating the impression that he was not interested in Hamzah’s victory.

26th August 1999:
This morning, Try and his delegation boarded on King Fahd’s private plane for a short flight to the city of Dhahran where Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco had its head offices.

In a ceremony witnessed by Try and Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi for Indonesia as well as Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Naimi, CEO of Pertamina M. Arifin and CEO of Saudi Aramco Abdalaah S. Jumaah signed an agreement committing both companies to cooperation in constructing an oil refinery in Sorong, Irian Jaya.

During the press conference afterwards, Djiteng Marsudi explained that this oil refinery will be the Exor II, the second oil refinery built in Indonesia for export purposes. Ali Naimi said that the Indonesian government’s conduct was praiseworthy because it was very professional and there were no middlemen asking for expensive commissions involved.

Afterwards, Try toured the city talking to a group of Indonesian migrant workers who worked at a construction site. In the evening, Try took King Fahd’s private plane and flew to Mecca.

27th August 1999:
Try and his delegation spent the day in prayer and contemplation as they conducted the Umrah.

Matori Abdul Djalil spent Friday Prayer with none other than Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid and Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais. Crowded by the press afterwards, the two chairmen openly declared their support for Matori Abdul Djalil.

The Attorney Generals’ Office submits Tommy Soeharto’s Case to the District Court of South Jakarta. In another part of the city, Minister of Legal Affairs Albert Hasibuan was asked if the case was conducted political. Hasibuan categorically denied it saying that this was a legal rather than a political matter.

29th August 1999:
The President and his delegation touched down after their visit to Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia in the late afternoon.

From the Airport, Try was immediately driven to Jakarta Convention Center where he opened the PPP National Congress to a raucous ovation from the PPP delegates attending the conference.

30th August 1999:
Try had breakfast with Vice President JB Sumarlin. Sumarlin reported that the Rupiah continues to strengthen and that it has reached Rp. 4,481 to the dollar today. Oil prices are now around $15-16 per barrel and with the government having cut fuel subsidies, it’s expected to have a revenue shortfall. Try ordered Sumarlin to look at the government’s budget position and see what they can do to further boost economic recovery.

Chairman of PPP Ismail Hasan Metareum delivered his accountability address, quite tearfully confirming that he will not be a candidate for the Chairmanship of PPP.

31st August 1999:
The President met with Minister of Health Azrul Azwar. He reported that the aid received last year from the CGI has been used to support the operations of 7,000 Community Health Centers. The President also approved of the Directorate General of Food and Drugs’ conversion to the Food and Drugs Monitoring Agency (BPOM) and of the Department of Health’s taking over of the National AIDS Council.

It was afternoon when Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo came to meet Try. Edi Sudrajat and OCDS Sugeng Subroto sat in on the meeting.

“The vote for the Chairmanship of the PPP will take place tonight, Matori has the votes he needs from Gus Dur and Amien Rais mobilized and it’s just a matter of time and a matter of how large the victory will be”, reported Ari.

“That’s the good news”, said Try “I’m guessing there’s a bad news that comes with this?”

Harsudiono explained that Wahid and Amien Rais were beginning to jockey around about how power was to be distributed. Their dispute ran something like this:

*It was agreed that since Matori, being an NU man, would be the Chairman of PPP, the Secretary of PPP’s position would go to a Muhammadiyah man. The name agreed by Wahid, Amien, and of course, Matori, was Bachtiar Chamsyah.

*The dispute was over changes in the PPP’s DPR line-up. Amien proposed that in addition to being Chairman of PPP, Matori would also double as Vice Chairman of DPR. But this meant that the Leader of the PPP in the DPR’s position would go to someone from Muhammadiyah. Wahid preferred that Metareum remain as Vice Chairman of the DPR and the Leader of the PPP in the DPR’s position to remain with someone from NU.

“I think at this present political situation, I’d want someone who is a follower of Wahid running the PPP show in the DPR”, said Try “What’s it going to take for Amien to back down?”

“A seat in cabinet for a Muhammadiyah member”, said Harsudiono “As a minister in charge of a department not a junior minister.”

“Because he wants the minister from Muhammadiyah to have equal status with the minister from NU?” asked Sugeng Subroto.

“Correct”, replied Harsudiono.

“I’m not reshuffling the cabinet”, Try said “I understand we’ve got to play the politics but I’m not just going to change the cabinet all the time. I’ve got to keep our existing allies happy and show the markets our government is not unstable.”

“Then we lose Amien’s support and the race for the Chairmanship of the PPP becomes unpredictable, Mr. President”, warned Harsudiono "Your reaching a settlement with the two of them is the only thing standing in the way of Matori's victory."

Try sighed and shook his head.

“Get Gus Dur and Amien Rais in here with me”, said Try “Let me try to mediate between them.”

---
The Exor Oil Refineries were 4 oil refineries which Soeharto and his government was going to construct and develop so that Indonesia could process raw oil and then export it overseas. Of the 4 planned Exor refineries only one was completed. The remaining three never eventuated.

The PPP was the Soeharto regime’s approved Islamic political party containing of members from various organizations but most especially from Indonesia’s two major Islamic mass organization: Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah.

NU and Muhammadiyah themselves claim that they are not political organizations though they allow their members to take part in politics, their support are courted by presidents past, present, and future and they themselves have quasi-political party status. Those who are members identify themselves as an “NU” or “Muhammadiyah” the way Americans identify themselves as “Republican” or “Democrat” ("My Dad is an NU man" and/or "Are you a Muhammadiyah?" are common questions heard when people talk about their religious leanings.

 

[GSD310]

The Try Offensive (In Indonesian: Serangan Try) was a period of time in Indonesian politics to describe a series of political maneuvers and deals struck between President Try Sutrisno with various actors and entities within Indonesian politics between April and September 1999.

These maneuvering and deals were undertaken in response to the emergence of Siti Hardijanti Rukmana as the Chairwoman of Golkar at the Sixth Golkar National Congress and after she began undermining Try’s authority during the first months of her chairwomanship.

- Excerpt from A History of Modern Indonesia Since C. 1200 by M.C. Ricklefs

———
Well, folks. I have about 1 or 2 posts left before real life will force me to slow down and spend less time on this for some time. But that’ll be just enough time for the Try Offensive to come to a close.

 

[GSD310]

31st August 1999:
At 7 PM, President Try Sutrisno met Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid and Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais in a three-way meeting. The two chairmen of Indonesia’s largest mainstream Islamic organizations were courteous but they were being tough hagglers. They outlined their suggestions as to what the PPP’s line-up in the DPR was going to be.

When asked what it will take for him to acquiesce to Wahid’s suggestion, Amien Rais said that with Muhammadiyah’s support in the PPP, Matori’s victory is shaping to be a big one. In all good conscience Muhammadiyah can’t accept anything less than a seat in the cabinet in charge of a department. Muhammadiyah must stand on equal terms with NU.

Wahid said that he’s willing to let someone from Muhammadiyah take Khofifah Indar Parawansa’s spot in the cabinet as long as NU can have all of the PPP’s major spots in the DPR. Try knew this won’t work. The NU rank-and-file won’t be happy with one of their own being removed from the cabinet so that a Muhammadiyah person could take their place.

Meanwhile at the PPP National Congress, Chairman Ismail Hasan Metareum called a recess for an indefinite amount of time until the President could reach a settlement with the chairmen of NU and Muhammadiyah. Until such a settlement is reached there would be no vote for the chairmanship of the PPP.

At Golkar Headquarters, Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut said in a press conference that the vote for the chairmanship of the PPP should go ahead regardless. She warned the President to be careful because it was just mere weeks ago that Amien was still criticizing government policy.

It was 9.30 PM, Abdurrahman Wahid and Amien Rais emerged out of their meeting to announce that they were behind the President, they were behind the government, and they were still behind Matori Abdul Djalil.

Try watched this on TV with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat by his side. He told Edi what he told the two chairmen and complained that he felt like “such a politician.”

In a voting and vote counting process that went into the wee hours of the morning, 328 PPP delegations representing the provincial and municipal/regency branches participated in a contest for the PPP’s chairmanship.

When all was said and done, Matori Abdul Djalil emerged as the new Chairman of the PPP winning over Hamzah Haz 234 votes to 94. Bachtiar Chamsyah, Matori’s choice and of Muhammadiyah origin, emerged as the Secretary of the PPP after being voted on by acclamation in respect of Matori’s victory.

1st September 1999:
Try’s first meeting of the day was with his Four Horsemen; Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto joining Edi at the President’s office. Ari Sudewo went through what had happened in the last few hours. How a combination of NU and Muhammadiyah votes threw itself behind Matori and secured his victory.

“There you have it, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono after Ari finished with his report “You have a coalition.”

“Are there any more coalition partners that we ought to be considering?” asked Edi.

“Soerjadi’s PDI comes to mind”, replied Sugeng Subroto “We don’t have anyone from Megawati’s PDI anymore so they should be fair game.”

“They’re good where they are”, said Harsudiono with a smile “And it’s best that they remain with Tutut. They’ll be a big enough barrier for Megawati’s PDI to join Tutut.”

“The Crescent and Star Discussion Forum”, interjected Edi mentioning the name of an informal organization begun former Soeharto speechwriter Yusril Ihza Mahendra.

“They want to start a debate about the Jakarta Charter, Sharia Law and whatnot”, said Ari “That’s probably too far from what we’re aiming for. If they want to find a home with Tutut, they’re more than welcome do.”

The four realized that the President was quiet and turned to him as though asking for his opinion.

“Well, if we don’t have anymore coalition partners to go after, we can start including Muhamadiyah in the division of power”, Try said.

In the afternoon, the PPP National Congress officially came to an end with a ceremony where Ismail Hasan Metareum handed PPP's banner to Matori Abdul Djalil.

2nd September 1999
In the morning, Hamzah Haz resigned from his position as Leader of the PPP in the DPR.

Meanwhile, Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil emerged out of a meeting with the President and said that he just had a productive first meeting with the President. Matori said that President Try would like to ask the PPP for its critical about ultimately productive cooperation in the DPR and Matori said that he has given that pledge. Matori also announced that Zarkasih Nur will be the new Leader of the PPP in the DPR.

3rd September 1999:
As though echoing Matori’s pledge for cooperation, the DPR today passed the Special Administrative Region of Irian Jaya Bill into law by 409 votes to 91 votes with only members of the Hartono Caucus and the PDI voting against the bill. The number shows that while there were still PPP members voting with Tutut, the majority of the PPP members in the DPR had gone over to the government’s side.

Try had Friday Prayer and lunch with Chairman of DPR Harmoko, former Vice President Sudharmono, former Chairman of DPR Wahono, Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Amien Rais, and Matori Abdul Djalil. Try told Harmoko, Sudharmono, Wahono, and Habibie that he remained committed to the cabinet reshuffle made last April and that only extraordinary circumstances will allow for radical changes in the line-up of the cabinet. At the same time he ensured Wahid, Amien, and Matori that they would be accommodated. Try also pledged to support Wahid, Amien, and Habibie in NU’s, Muhammadiyah’s, and ICMI’s National Congresses.

All of the men in the room pledged their loyalties to Try and his presidency. They then outlined their what they had in their minds though Try made sure to note the dynamics in the room:

-Wahid said that it would’ve been better if Megawati was involved. Amien and Habibie frowned at this. Harmoko said that Megawati made her bed because she was in the coalition but she decided to withdrew her minister and that the President was under no obligation to take her back into the fold.

-Sudharmono asked what would be this group’s stance towards Soeharto. Wahono said that this group is pro-Try rather than anti-Soeharto though Amien seemed to not mind the label of being anti-Soeharto.

As the meeting broke up, Sudharmono approached Try. He told Try that he hopes the existence of this group does not mean that Try will not forget to reconcile with Tutut. Try said he will remember his advice.

Harmoko, Sudharmono, Wahono, Abdurrahman Wahid, Amien Rais, and Matori Abdul Djalil held a joint press conference. Habibie left immediately, insisting to journalists who followed him that he was a neutral in Indonesian politics.

The six men gave an account of their conversation with the President though of course without divulging the politically sensitive details. Harmoko appointed himself the spokesperson of the group and did most of the talking confirming that the six men had pledged themselves and their supporters to supporting the President. Throughout the press conference there was division in the six men between those who spoke of themselves as a ‘grouping’ and those who called themselves a ‘coalition’.

It took some prodding by the journalists present before the six agreed that the best term to describe themselves was a coalition though they said they will leave the naming of such a coalition to President Try.

The press conference’s final question saw the six men being asked if the President will mark their becoming a coalition by reshuffling the cabinet to better reflect the better arrangements. All six men said that the President had no intention of reshuffling their cabinet though the expressions in their faces hoped that this would be the case and that their men will fare well in them.

4th September 1999:
Jakarta began to be abuzz with rumors with the expectation that the creation of what is provisionally known as the Try Coalition would culminate with a cabinet reshuffle to at the very least accommodate NU and Muhammadiyah

The President chose to retreat to Bogor Presidential Palace. All of Try’s Four Horsemen attended except for Ari Sudewo and the three talked to him about various issues relating to the new coalition. Harsudiono scoffed at Sudharmono pushing Try to make his peace with Tutut.

“If Sudharmono had talked about that openly with the other guys rather than privately with you, he would have been slaughtered”, said Harsudiono “If this situation that you have with Tutut hadn’t occurred, there would’ve been no need for a coalition. It’s not in their interest that you reconcile with Tutut.”

“In any case, Mr. President, you should go along with what Sudharmono is proposing regarding reconciliation with Tutut”, said Edi “At the very least show him and show those who are stil sympathetic towards Soeharto that you’re not the problem.”

Meanwhile, Ari Sudewo was having lunch with Taufiq Kiemas, the husband of Megawati Soekarnoputri. Taufiq said that he would’ve liked if someone from Megawati’s PDI would be included as part of the coalition and recommended Kwik Kian Gie. Ari Sudewo said that at this moment that’s not possible because the President has deemed Megawati unreliable for withdrawing Sutjipto from the cabinet. That said, Ari Sudewo said that he would like to maintain his links with Taufiq. Taufiq agreed.

5th September 1999:
Try was joined by Sumarlin after lunchtime, the Vice President needing to fulfill his religious obligations first since it’s a Sunday. Try gave him an explanation of his meeting the previous Friday and what he intends to do. The President handed Sumarlin a list of names. The latter chuckled when looked at it.

“It seems like a long time ago that you told me that you’ll be focusing on the politics this year, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin “I know what it is you’re doing and how necessary it is, I just hope that you don’t go too far with the politicking.”

“I hope not, Mr. Vice President”, said Try.

“And for what it’s worth, I hope they will honor their commitment to you as you have honored their commitment to them”, said Sumarlin.

6th September 1999:
The morning began with Edi Sudrajat arriving at the State Secretariat. As he walked pass, Edi Sudrajat was asked if the President is planning a reshuffle of the cabinet. Edi asked that there would be no reshuffle of the cabinet and that the President was serious about there being no reshuffle.

Indonesianists would later say that there was more anticipation for the Cabinet Reshuffle in April 1999 though the present situation was intriguing in its own right to see how Try would honor his commitment of there being no reshuffle but be accommodating of his allies at the same time.

It was around 4 PM when the President appeared in front of the press accompanied by the Vice President and said that he had some announcements to make.

The announcements were as follows:

Different Types of Ministers:
Try said that while it was his intention at the beginning of the term to do away with other ministers other than ministers in charge of department, the government’s scope of activities is such that the addition of ministers with special and specific duties were unavoidable. In addition to ministers who are in charge of a government department, there will be the following types of ministers.

State Ministers will be those ministers in charge of policy areas where cross-departmental cooperation and coordination will be involved.

Junior Ministers will be in charge of putting extra focus on existing policy areas within a department.

Rearrangements:
The Department of Female Empowerment, Youth, and Sports will be disbanded. Instead it will be replaced by a State Minister of Female Empowerment and Childrens’ Welfare and a State Minister of Youth and Sports.

The list of State Ministers will be as follows:
-State Minister of National Security Affairs
-State Minister of Regional Autonomy
-State Minister of Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones
-State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises (Previously a junior Ministry)
-State Minister of Urban Development (Previously a Junior Ministry)
-State Minister of Rural Development (Previously a Junior Ministry)
-State Minister of Research and Technology (Previously a Junior Ministry)
-State Minister of Female Empowerment and Childrens’ Welfare
-State Minister of Youth and Sports

The list of Junior Ministers will be as follows:
-Junior Minister of Finance (Created at the April Reshuffle)
-Junior Minister of Cooperatives (Created at the April Reshuffle)
-Junior Minister of Housing
-Junior Minister of Arts and Culture
---

Excerpt of Cable from the United States Embassy in Jakarta

For all the cabinet reorganization and rearrangement, it was ultimately the names who will occupy these posts are that are of interest for those in attendance.

State Minister of National Security: Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Soerjadi
Not to be confused with the Minister of Transportation or the Chairman of the PDI. He had a background in Kopassus and in intelligence. Much as Try, he was also an Aide-De-Camp to Soeharto (1981-1986) and also rose to high office, advancing to become Deputy Army Chief of Staff (1993-1995). For someone who presently served as Director General of Customs and Excise (1998-1999), Soerjadi will be returning to more familiar territory as State Minister of National Security. He is expected to play a role not unlike that of the National Security Advisor in the United States as well as to balance the advice of ministers in national security affairs. He had been strongly considered for a cabinet position since 18 months ago but missed out because Try thought the ABRI slots had run out.

State Minister of Regional Autonomy: Drs. Oemarsono
Assisting the Minister of Home Affairs not to mention coordinating the implementation of the Two Regional Autonomy Laws and the Special Administrative Regions will be Oemarsono, the present Governor of Lampung. Originally from Central Java, Oemarsono was Regent of Wonogiri in Central Java (1985-1995) and Lieutenant Governor of Lampung (1995-1998) before becoming Governor of Lampung. Try, preoccupied with the economy and re-election in his first 100 days, had allowed Oemarsono’s election and assumption of the governorship of Lampung to go ahead. For his part, Oemarsono originally felt that he owed Try no loyalty because his appointment was originally greenlighted by Soeharto. He only switched over to Try after the settlement which the President agreed to with the regions in May 1999. In addition to his experiences as Regent and Governor, Oemarsono also has experience in regional finance, collecting revenue as Sragen’s Chief Revenue Officer and balancing the Lampung budget as governor.

State Minister of Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones: Drs. M. Jusuf Kalla
The task of increasing development to Eastern Indonesia and of managing Indonesia’s special development zones of Batam and Bintan will now be entrusted to Jusuf Kalla. The President will be looking to Kalla’s energy to break the bureaucratic logjams that can and has happened. Kalla is considered to be an ally of Ginandjar Kartasasmita though acceptable to Habibie because of his South Sulawesinese origin, which will also give Sulawesi a representative at the cabinet table. Kalla will be resigning as CEO of PT Hadji Kalla to take up this position.

State Ministers of State-Owned Enterprises, Urban Development, Rural Development and Research and Technology will be held by the same ministers.

The State Minister of Female Empowerment, Childrens’ Welfare is a modification of the Minister of Female Empowerment, Youth, and Sports’ position. It wil continue to be held by Khofifah Indar Parawansa.

State Minister of Youth and Sports: Drs. Hajriyanto Thohari
Hajriyanto Thohari steps into the Youth and Sports’ portion of Khofifah’s former department and will be Muhammadiyah’s man in the cabinet. Until 1998, Hajriyanto was the Chairman of Muhammadiyah’s Organization from where he has become well-known to Amien Rais. An anthropologist by training, Hajriyanto is a member of Golkar and is presently serving his first term as a DPR member representing Central Java.

Junior Minister of Housing: Drs. Enggartiasto Lukita
The scope of the Department of Public Works, Housing, and Urban Development’s work is so large that both housing and urban development would now get its own ministers. In the case of housing, which is a part of the presently struggling construction sector, the responsibility now falls to Enggartiasto Lukita. Enggartiasto is a property developer who has an extensive network due to his former position as Chairman of Real Estate Indonesia (1992-1995), Indonesia’s property developers association. He has been a Golkar member since 1979. He is of Chinese ethnicity.

Junior Minister of Arts and Culture: Drs. Subrata
The task of managing the nation’s films, artists, and museums will now be entrusted to Drs. Subrata. A bureaucrat from Harmoko’s time as Minister of Information, Subrata was best known for being the Director General of Press and Graphics (1990-1997) who revoked three publications’ publishing license in 1994 for its criticism of the government. The experience which Subrata will need, and the government hopes he will rely on, will be his lesser known but more positive experience as Director General of Radio, Television, and Flm (1983-1987).

Analysis:
-The President’s commitment not to reshuffle his cabinet and his realization of that commitment has won him general acclaim. The market reacted positively that no ministers had been reshuffled at a time when the economy was beginning to show signs of recovery. His coalition respected the fact that he would not remove ministers for expediency.

-Wahid was cooperative and supportive of Try’s changing of Khofifah’s status from minister in charge of a department to state minister so that a Muhammadiyah member could be accommodated and stand on equal ground with an NU member as a minister. Amien Rais compromised as well, settling for a state minister’s position rather than a full cabinet spot.

-There are no real clear winners in this cabinet expansion which shows that Try has been able to balance the interests around him.

-Oemarsono’s appointment is a nod towards those governors who were appointed prior to Soeharto’s death and who, while not be necessarily hostile to Try, do not feel that they owe Try anything if not skeptical of Try’s decisions until they reached a settlement with him regarding Regional Autonomy in May 1999.

-Habibie lobbied for Sulawesinese representation in the cabinet and got it though Kalla is not necessarily his man.

-Harmoko lobbied for the Leader of DPR in Golkar Irsyad Sudiro to be appointed Minister of Social Affairs replacing Meutia Hatta. Try rejected this. “President Soeharto’s daughter is against me, I’m unclear what President Soekarno’s daughter will do so I think I’m going to hold on to Vice President Hatta’s daughter”, he is reported to have said.

-The choices of Kalla and Enggartiasto were to be Try’s appeal to the business world with Kalla representing indigenous Indonesian businessmen and Enggartiasto Chinese Indonesian businessmen.

-The extent of hostilities between Try and Tutut showed its ugly face during the cabinet expansion process. The President had Ishadi SK slotted in for the Junior Minister of Arts and Culture position on account of his long TVRI career and the fact that he was supposed to be the Sulawesinese representation in the cabinet. That was until Harmoko reminded Try that Ishadi SK is the Director Operations at Tutut’s TPI Television network. Try, not wanting to include anyone associated with Tutut, crossed Ishadi’s name out.

---
“Mr. President, you said earlier in your statement that you don’t have any intention of adding anymore positions to the cabinet. Does that mean that your cabinet is complete? How do you feel about what people are saying in the last few hours that it has taken you 18 months to complete your cabinet?” asked the Jakarta Post reporter.

“Well my cabinet is complete now that much I can be sure of”, said Try “And as far as taking 18 months to complete my cabinet…I look at it this way, it may have taken me 18 months to complete my cabinet but I got a coalition in the process so it's a good trade-off from where I stand. And for the record, I name this coalition the Pancasila Coalition…”

---
OTL PPP had its National Congresses in 1984, 1989, and 1994. So logically for the purposes of this TL, the PPP National Congress was held in 1999 (In OTL a Special Congress was held in 1998 where Hamzah Haz became new Chairman of the PPP).

A bit of a long update but Try’s Pancasila Coalition as well as the expanded Seventh Development Cabinet, which was the price of Try’s insistence on not having a reshuffle, is now complete.

 

[GSD310]

7th September 1999:
President Try Sutrisno swore in the 4 state ministers and 2 junior ministers he appointed in the cabinet expansion.

State Secretary Edi Sudrajat said that there are some changes in the nomenclature of the ministries which are as follows:
-Minister of Trade and Investment will now be known as Minister of Trade
-Minister of Agriculture, Food, and Cooperatives will now be known as Minister of Agriculture
-Minister of Industry, Research, and Technology will now be known as Minister of Industry
-Minister of Public Works, Housing, and Urban Development will now be known as Minister of Housing
-Minister of Tourism, Arts, and Culture will now be known as Minister of Tourism

The changes are made because the nomenclatures are redundant when there are functions in the minister’s name which are excercised by a junior minister or an agency. Department names would not change.

8th September 1999:
Tommy Soeharto receives notification that he will be expected at court on 13th September 1999.

Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo and CEO of Salim Group Anthony Salim announced that the President has approved of a 5-year plan for the government to divest of its 35% share in Salim Group’s Indocement. This was a reversal of a policy initiated in 1985 by Soeharto to support Liem Sioe Liong’s cement business. Siswono said that with cement prices now being left to the market, it was inappropriate that the government still had shares in one of the nation’s cement companies.

Anthony Salim said that the times had changed and that he was willing to cooperate with the government. He said that if the situation is advantageous for both parties, he will propose a faster divestment sechedule.

9th September 1999:
The President landed at Sentani Airport in the after noon and was welcomed by Governor Jacob Pattipi and the province’s top officials. From the airport, he stopped at Lake Sentani to marvel at the tourism potential of the lake and talk to locals in the surrounding village in a meet and greet. Try became annoyed when it was revealed that local farmers did not know that it’s not compulsory to sell their crops to the KUD anymore. He rather curtly told Pattipi that he wanted his policies to be implemented well and to remove officials getting in the way at policies. Try arrived at Jayapura just as the sun was setting and he spent the night there.

10th September 1999:
In a morning ceremony at the Irian Jaya DPRD Building, Try, accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and Pattipi signed the Special Administrative Region of Irian Jaya Law. The date was chosen because it was the 30th anniversary of the formation of Irian Jaya Province. Try took part in the celebrations that morning but by noon, the President had departed for Auckland, New Zealand for APEC.

11th September 1999:
Having arrived very late at Auckland the previous night, the President accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, and Edi Sudrajat met with Prime Minister Jenny Shipley and Minister of Foreign Affairs Don McKinnon from the New Zealand Government who were already in Auckland for APEC. They discussed closer ties between Indonesia and New Zealand.

Try then departed for Wheuanui Farm just north of Auckland. He toured the beef and sheep farm and marveled at New Zealand livestock. Dorodjatun said these are the kind of meat Indonesia imports. Try said that perhaps they can import less if there’s better infrastructure.

12th-13th September 1999:
President Try attended the APEC Summit over the two-day period. When his turn came to address the summit, Try called for a mutually beneficial relationship in which developed countries lower their barriers to trade with developing countries and developing countries lower their barriers to investment from developed countries. He also called upon all APEC members to abide by the Bogor Goals agreed at the APEC Summit at Bogor 5 years of trade and tariff liberalization within APEC at 2010 for developed countries and 2020 for developing countries.

Try also had bilateral meetings, the highlights of which were with the following leaders:

-Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi of Japan welcomed news of Indonesia’s continuing economic recovery throughout 1999. Obuchi promised more aid from Japan’s end and said that it is in Japan’s interest to see an Indonesia recovered from the Asian Financial Crisis.

-President Jiang Zemin of China repeated his recognition of Indonesia’s sovereignty over East Timor to Try in their meeting. Jiang called for closer ties between Indonesia and China saying that the future of Asia lies in Jakarta and Beijing rather than in Tokyo.

-President Bill Clinton of the United States hailed Indonesia’s continuing economic recovery and that this will create stability in Southeast Asia. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright hailed the fact that Tommy Soeharto is being put on trial.

-Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of Russia said that the 12 Sukhoi Aircrafts which Soeharto had ordered in 1997 was still available. Putin said that he was willing if Indonesia wanted to make the purchase through bartering agricultural commodities.

Back in Jakarta, Tommy Soeharto had his first day on trial. As he went into the courtroom he declared that he was willing to cooperate and that this was a legal case, not a political one.

14th September 1999:
Chairman of DPR Harmoko, accompanied by the Leader of Golkar in the DPR Irsyad Sudiro, met with DPR Members Hartono and Ary Mardjono. Hartono and Ary Mardjono announced that they were going to dissolve the Hartono Caucus and that they will cooperate with the government’s legislative programs. Hartono said that the orders to take this step came from Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto herself. Harmoko said this was welcome development though he and Irsyad Sudiro alike wondered what Tutut was getting up to.

In the evening, President Try’s flight from Auckland touched back down in Jakarta.

15th September 1999:
Try today welcomed another leader who had only days ago been with him at the APEC Summit in the shape of President of South Korea Kim Dae Jung. Among other things which they discussed, Kim indicated that South Korea is willing to accept Indonesian domestic workers.

At the press conference afterwards, Try and Kim took various questions. The question that drew the most attention was the following: “Despite the fact that your two countries have had to undergo the plight of the Asian Financial Crisis, how does it feel to hear that Indonesia and South Korea have been hailed in recent weeks as the two nations in Asia most likely to get out of crisis first?”

“Well I think South Korea is out of the crisis already so there’s no question about them still being in the crisis”, said Try “As for Indonesia, we’re thankful for the sentiment but we would prefer not to let our guard down.”

16th September 1999:
Try and Kim Dae Jung were at Cilegon, West Java today to jointly inaugurate a steel plant completed by a joint venture between Indonesia’s steel state-owned enterprise Krakatau Steel and South Korea’s steel state-owned enterprise Pohang Steel Company (Posco). The cooperation was formed in December 1995 with construction beginning in May 1997. Try was accompanied by Siswono Yudohusodo for this particular event.

Amongst the guests invited was Bob Hasan, who represented Nusamba, a company whose majority shares were held by Soeharto’s three largest foundations. Try shook his hand and Bob Hasan told him that “Tutut sends her regards.”

17th September 1999:
All eyes were on the DPR building where Harmoko had a one-on-one meeting with Tutut. The two posed for pictures afterwards and answered questions from the press. Harmoko said in his statement that it was a friendly meeting. Tutut professed her support for President Try and agreed with the government line that Tommy Soeharto’s case was a legal, not political, matter.

As the day came to an end, Try had a three-way meeting with Minister of Legal Affairs Albert Hasibuan and Attorney General Soedjono C. Atmonegoro discuss Tommy’s trial. It was agreed by all that from the prosecutors’ side, there was a difficulty asking the hard questions because of all the cameras present in the case. Not so much because they don’t know the case but because they feel under pressure publicly asking things that might “reflect badly on President Soeharto”.

“Let’s have the cameras banned from the hearings and only have reporters and journalists in there, then”, said Try “But I want the prosecutors to not hesitate to ask the tough questions.”

18th September 1999:
Tutut continued her “goodwill tour” around Jakarta, this time visiting Sudharmono. Sudharmono looked very flattered as Tutut referred to him as “My father’s closest associate.”

Meanwhile, Edi Sudrajat spent his Saturday also travelling around Jakarta visiting Harmoko, Wahono, Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Amien Rais, and Matori Abdul Djalil that the President remains committed to their coalition.

20th September 1999:
President Try presided today over a swearing-in ceremony that was quickly dubbed “NU and Muhammadiyah’s coming out party” for the fact that the two organizations featured prominently as the people being sworn in.

The first to be sworn in were Drs. Tosari Widjaja (NU) who took up his new post as Head of the BNP2TKI. Tosari recently completed his term (1994-1999) as Secretary of the PPP. Standing alongside him was Prof. Dr. Umar Anggara Jenie Apt., Msc., (Muhammadiyah), a pharmaceutical professor who will become the Head of BPOM. Both agencies were newly established.

Among the ambassadors sworn in were Prof. Drs. Abdul Malik Fadjar Msc. (Muhammadiyah) as Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Slamet Effendi Yusuf (NU) as Ambassador to the United Kingdom.

21st September 1999:
Try had breakfast with Harmoko. They talked about legislation that was still before the DPR but knew that this was just a prelude to the big issue they were both facing.

“Peace with Tutut, Mr. Chairman”, Try said as he began “What do you make of it?”

“She’s hitting all the right notes, Mr. President”, replied Harmoko “She ordered the Hartono Caucus to dissolve and she is maintaining that Tommy Soeharto’s trial is a legal matter, not a political matter. She wants to be seen to be falling in line with you, Mr. President.”

“She wouldn’t have gone to such steps if the Pancasila Coalition hadn’t been formed”, muttered Try.

“I agree, Mr. President”, said Harmoko “You’ve pushed her into a corner and she’s trying to fight her way out of it.”

“But this peace, Mr. Chairman…if I was to go ahead and reconcile with Tutut, it’d be a fake peace”, said Try “How long before she and I are struggling with each other again?”

“And I agree with you on that”, said Harmoko “This fake peace is about Tutut wanting some breathing room so you would stop your maneuvering and she can get on with her own maneuvering.”

“Why would I allow her to maneuver?” asked Try.

“Because these steps that she’s taken, if you don’t respond positively to it, it will make you look like you’re hostile towards her”, warned Harmoko “I don’t like it either, Mr. President.”

There was silence at the table as both men thought some more about the situation.

“What do you suppose Tutut will do if I make my peace with her?” asked Try.

“I think I have an idea of what she will do, Mr. President” said Harmoko “She’ll go after my unfinished business and ask your permission to start holding Golkar Provincial Congresses.”

Try thought about it. Prior to Sudharmono’s chairmanship of Golkar (1983-1988), Provincial Congresses were held once the Golkar’s National Congress had been held. In 1987, in an effort to make Golkar more of a bottom-up rather than a top-down organization, Sudharmono had gotten Soeharto’s approval that Golkar Provincial Congresses would precede the Golkar National Congress. The idea being that the new provincial branches chairmen would then become delegates to the national congress and help determine the chairman of Golkar. This was maintained by Wahono during his chairmanship (1988-1993) but was clearly not the case with Harmoko.

“Why was this business unfinished with you?” asked Try.

“I knew that prior to the Golkar National Congress last year, the provincial branches would be friendly towards you and whoever you supported” said Harmoko “I wanted to keep them in place and avoid running the risk of the provincial branches falling to Tutut before the Golkar National Congress.

I know my place, Mr. President. I don’t have popularity like yours, organizational support like Habibie’s, or a DNA like Tutut’s. I wouldn’t have risen to the chairmanship of Golkar if President Soeharto hadn’t imposed me on the congress. I thought you would be able to do something similar…”

Try smiled bitterly. It was because he was reluctant to throw his support behind Harmoko until the final weeks before the congress that Tutut became Chairwoman. But regretting the past was not much good.

“Maybe I could prevent Tutut from holding the provincial congresses”, suggested Try “I am the Chairman of the Council of Patrons and the Leader of Golkar.”

“It’s not that easy”, said Harmoko “It goes back to what I said earlier. She’s asking for peace and she’s going to ask permission to do something that is within her job description. If you get in the way you’ll look hostile and petty.”

Try thought about things carefully.

“The question now , Mr. President”, began Harmoko “Is what will you be doing with this peace that is coming with Tutut?”
---
After the day’s work was over, Try gathered his Four Horsemen. Edi Sudrajat and OCDS Sugeng Subroto went to work in the same office bloc as his. It was a matter of waiting for Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo to arrive. When all were present, Try talked to them about his conversation with Harmoko earlier in the day.

“I’d never thought I’d see the day when Harmoko makes so much sense”, muttered Harsudiono "I agree with everything that he said. Make the peace with the Chairwoman of Golkar but know what it is you should be doing during that peace however long that will last."

“Harmoko would know what it’s like to be undermined by Tutut; that was pretty much the only constant thing of his chairmanship of Golkar”, said Sugeng Subroto.

“Well then, Mr. President, what steps are you going to take?” asked Edi.

“I’d work on getting the economy out of the crisis once and for all…”said Try before pausing and realizing that his answer was not adequate.

“I don’t think that that will be enough, Mr. President”, interjected Ari Sudewo “If Tutut is going to make the Golkar provincial branches more favorable towards her then you should be something comparable to that as good as getting out of the crisis is.”

“Such as?” asked Try.

“Take a piece of intel that I got. Everybody’s thinking that with Hartono dissolving the Hartono Caucus, it means that there would not be any more obstruction in the DPR from the Tutut supporters” explained Ari Sudewo.

“And that might be the case”, said Sugeng Subroto.

“Maybe in the short term”, said Ari Sudewo “But look at it this way, why bother gathering in a Hartono Caucus anymore? Everybody in that group knows that all of them are for Tutut. Why not mix with all the other Golkar DPR members and try to convince them that supporting Tutut is the best way? And if I’m correct, I’m also receiving intelligent that the Tutut supporters in the DPR are beginning to make threats…those who don’t support Tutut will have little to no chance of being re-elected in the DPR in 2002.”

There was silence as the five processed what was said. It was in this silence that Harsudiono and Edi glared at each other and agreed that it was time to speak to the President about their conversation with Chairman of the Central Java DPRD/Chairman of the Golkar Central Java Provincial Branch Alip Pandoyo in March 1999.

There was shock on Try and Sugeng Subroto’s face when this story was told. Ari Sudewo’s expression becomes grave.

“…Alip Pandoyo worries that by the time you and Tutut have to sit down to give final approval to who will be Golkar’s legislative candidates, you would’ve lost all power within Golkar to impose your will on her”, reported Harsudiono “And if she controls most of the provincial branches, that will be the case.”

“If we’re not careful, that would mean that most of Golkar’s candidates in the next election will be approved by Tutut, meaning the DPR and MPR will be filled with Tutut’s supporters, which means…” and here Ari Sudewo paused.

“…she could be the next President of the Republic of Indonesia”, said Try.

Edi then spoke up saying that Alip Pandoyo proposed that all of the President’s real supporters are gathered up within Golkar so that they have a save forum to support the President and plan their attack against the Tutut supporters.

“But that would be repeating what Tutut’s supporters have been doing in the DPR in the last 14 months”, argued Sugeng.

“No, it can work”, said Try, surprising himself with the answer “We just have to be covert about it. I authorize this plan to go ahead. Cabinet, DPR, Civil Service, the Provinces, Urban, Rural, whatever…I want all my supporters contained in this forum…in this liveboat.”

The meeting ended on that note. While Edi and Sugeng continued working in their offices, Ari Sudewo hitched a ride with Harsudiono Hartas.

“I don’t quite know how to process that”, said Ari.

“Process what, Chief?” asked Harsudiono.

“The President has just authorized us to create a splinter organization within Golkar”, replied Ari with an expression of disbelief.

“We have to respond to events”, said Harsudiono sternly “Golkar has become too small for both Try and Tutut. It’s become too small ever since Tutut was elected Chairwoman.”

Ari sighed.

“You know what our reputations are out there in the world of political grapevines? In our group of five, I’m supposed to be the political calculator and you’re supposed to be the analyst”, said Harsudiono “Right now, with the information that we’ve got and that we just shared with each other, I think both my political calculations and your intelligence analysis are pointing in the same direction.”

---
A bit dialogue heavy I know, but we're shifting to the next phase of this TL now and all the consequences that that will entail.

The dialogue between Edi Sudrajat, Harsudiono Hartas, and Alip Pandoyo comes from 6th March 1999 ITTL.

Spoiler: 6th March 1999 Conversation

“I didn’t want to be the bearer of bad news to the President”, interrupted Alip “But as someone who is closer to the grassroots, I think there’s something bigger going on here.”

“Tell us”, said Harsudiono.

“There are increasing numbers of DPRD members loyal to me and saying that they are being threatened by those loyal to Tutut” said Alip “They say that if they don’t support this proposed Central Javanese budget that they will have no chance at re-election.”

“Not a chance”, said Edi “All Golkar legislative candidates, whether nationally or in the provinces, must get the final approval of the President in his capacity as Chairman of Golkar’s Council of Patrons. Whatever threats Tutut is giving you, she has to sit down with the President and they have to discuss who will be the legislative candidates.”

“My fear is that between now and that meeting, the President would’ve lost his ability to approve who gets to run for office from Golkar and that all the strings will be in Tutut’s hands”, said Alip “What’s happening in the Central Javanese DPRD; what’s happening in the DPR with the Banking Law not long ago, that’s not just DPR members showing their independence; they’re the President’s enemies showing themselves.”

“What do you propose that we do?” asked Harsudiono.

“The President’s supporters need to be protected”, said Alip “All those who are and truly loyal to the President should be protected in an organization within Golkar where they can safely support the President and strategize against the other side.”

“You’re proposing to create a splinter organization within Golkar”, said Edi.

 

[Corax]

Splinter eh, perhaps they could be called Golkar-P

 

[Pilatypus]

Splinter eh, perhaps they could be called Golkar-P

How about Partai Berkarya

 

[GSD310]

22nd September 1999:
To a great ovation, President Try made an appearance at the opening of the National Youth Gathering (Kirab Remaja Nasional) at Gelora Senayan Stadium. The gathering, the sixth of its kind, brought together youths from across the nation and from within ASEAN. Leading the ovation was Kirab Remaja’s founder and patron who was none other than the Chairwoman of Golkar herself, Tutut Soeharto. Try and Tutut chatted warmly with each other throughout the event and this made headine news.

Attending the UN General Assembly in New York, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita addressed the Assembly. Ginandjar spoke of Indonesia’s desire for a peaceful world that will create stability to make the economy and economic recovery possible. Demonstrators calling for East Timor and Irian Jaya Independence demonstrated in front of his hotel.

23rd September 1999:
The DPR unanimously passed the Special Administrative Region of Yogyakarta Law. Chairman of DPR Harmoko applauded the spirit of unanimity which has returned to the DPR.

Maj. Gen. (Pol.) Sofjan Jacoeb elected Governor of Lampung to fill the vacancy left behind by Oemarsono.

24th September 1999:
The President met with Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Governor of BI Boediono, Junior Minister of Finance Marzuki Usman, and Head of IBRA Bambang Subianto.

Boediono provided an update of the situation regarding the 48 BLBI Recipient Banks one year on after they had agreed to a settlement. Boediono said that the adjusted capital adequacy ratio has allowed the banks to remain operational and to build up capital so that it continues to become stronger. Bambang Subianto reported that IBRA’s monitoring capabilities has been improved and rules regarding transparency and accountability of banks to its shareholders are being enforced.

The banks are increasingly getting further from bankruptcy and are preparing their next installment of BLBI repayments.

26th September 1999:
Try held a meeting with his Four Horsemen though for today’s meeting, a special guest was invited in the form of Basofi Sudirman. The former Governor of East Java and present DPR member was given an explanation about Try’s meeting with Harmoko and then the Four Horsemen a few days ago. Basofi’s face went grave when he heard Try’s account.

“I want to put you in charge of Operation Lifeboat”, said Try “To look for my loyal supporters all around the country and gather them up in a forum.”

After the meeting, Basofi seemed ready but overwhelmed at a mission which Try had ordered to remain as covert as possible. As he walked away from the meeting, he conversed with Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas.

“But what the President is asking”, said Basofi “That’s pretty much creating a…”

“It’s a lifeboat”, interrupted Harsudiono “The President doesn't want to see it as anything more than that right now.”

27th September 1999:
President Try and Vice President JB Sumarlin held a full Cabinet meeting attended by all the ministers. The following were discussed during the meeting.

-Head of BPS Gunawan Sumodiningrat spoke about the latest statistics pointing to tourism and exports still leading the way for economic recovery. Junior Minister of Housing Enggartiasto Lukita said that the construction sector is beginning to improve on the back of cement prices being left to market mechanisms. This meant that efficient cement companies can sell cement at a cheaper price and property developers are beginning to get ahead with their projects.

-Try asked when will the economy recover. Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono answered that the best case scenario the economy would have recovered by the end of 1999. Most likely scenario is that the economy would get within “striking distance” of recovery with full economic recovery to be expected for 2000. All the economists in the room, including the Vice President, agreed with this analysis.

-The consensus around the cabinet was that whether the economy makes a full recovery in 1999 or not, the faster the recovery the better for various reasons. Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris cited that they’re already playing catch up with job creation from the bad economy in 1997 and 1998. Minister of National Security Affairs Soerjadi said that there are a lot of things like ABRI Weaponry and maritime border protection that needs to be funded.

-Mar’ie Muhammad spoke about the latest fiscal situation. He said that with the President and a few other departments handing over their off-budget funds over the last few months as well as cuts to the fuel subsidies, the revenue for calendar year 1999 is set to be 123% of what was projected at the beginning of the year. Mar’ie said that this extra revenue could be used to get within that “striking distance” of recovery.

-There was debate about what the extra funds to be used for. The President finally listened to the advice of Minister of Civil Service Kuntoro Mangkusubroto. He said that all civil servants and ABRI personnel should get a bonus worth 1 month’s salary for October and November in addition to their Ramadan allowance in December. All agreed that this can help encourage extra consumption in the economy and this was the decision that was announced after the meeting was finished.

28th September 1999:
Try met a motley crue of officials today: Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra, Minister of Education Wardiman Djojonegoro, Junior Minister of Arts and Culture Subrata, and Head of LIPI Taufik Abdullah.

The meeting agreed to remove certain scenes from Government movie “Betrayal of the 30th September Movement/PKI” when it is broadcasted on 30th September in the evening. In particular scenes where the kidnapped generals were tortured using sickles and razorblades. Taufik Abdullah said that these scenes should be removed because they are historically inaccurate. The official explanation given was that these scenes were removed because it was unsuitable for children.

29th September 1999:
Edi Sudrajat and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo conducted a joint press conference announcing the President’s acceptance of a review of the relationships between Indonesia’s intelligence agencies conducted by Teddy Rusdy Hayuni which includes the following changes:

-BAKIN to have “pre-eminent” status over all the nation’s other intelligence agencies (ABRI Intelligence Agency, the State Signals Institute, etc.)
-All heads of the nation’s other intelligence agencies to forward their daily briefings to the Chief of BAKIN.
-The Chief of BAKIN to have authority to summon heads of other intelligence agencies but for coordinative purposes only.
-BAKIN to have regional officers in the provinces and regencies/municipalities.

1st October 1999:
The President presided over Might of Pancasila Day Comemmorations at the Crocodile Hole where the generals who were kidnapped and killed by the 30th September Movement was taken. As Try walked around the site and said a silent prayer at the well, he summoned Tutut to walk beside him. Tutut was pleased at this walking in front of even the Vice President and the Chairman of the DPR.

After the ceremonies were over, closed talks were held at the Presidential Palace. It lasted until late afternoon and was only interrupted by Friday Prayer and Lunch. Try was accompanied by Edi Sudrajat, Harsudiono Hartas and Ginandjar Kartasasmita. Tutut by Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani, Treasurer of Golkar Akbar Tandjung, and Hartono.

In a joint press conference after the meeting, Edi and ZA Maulani announced the following agreement:

-The President acknowledges the results of the 1998 Golkar National Congress as legitimate. To that end, he will allow the Chairwoman of Golkar to move forward with holding Golkar Provincial Congresses and make all the necessary preparations for the 2002 Elections.

-The Chairwoman of Golkar has committed herself to rendering full cooperation and agreement to the government’s policies and legislation. This in addition to acknowledging the “undeniability and legitimacy” of the results of the 1998 MPR Session of the mandate the President had received from the MPR.

At Cendana Street, the Soeharto Family Residence, there was celebration attended by Tutut and her folowers with the general consensus being that Try had allowed himself to be bought for the price of “acknowledgement that he is the President.”

“Let the President control the present because we will control the future”, said one of the guests “Once the Palace is ours, we’ll just reverse all of his policies.”

3rd October 1999
It was a day with the extended family at the residence of Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie. As family members chatted and played, Habibie was deep in discussion with one of his sons’ father-in-law, who was none other than Deputy State Secretary Soedibyo Rahardjo. Habibie says he doesn’t get Try’s move in agreeing to a peace with Tutut.

“Neither do the other members of the Pancasila Coalition”, said Soedibyo “But there’s something the President sees…something he wants to do, otherwise it just doesn’t make sense. Tutut’s planning something that much is obvious, but the President is as well.”

4th October 1999:
Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto and Chairman of the BPIS Sintong Panjaitan sign an agreement whereby the Department of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries will be buying 15 patrol boats from PT Pal, the State-Owned Ship Building Enterprise. Tanto said that this was a necessary purchase to add to the existing patrol boats his department had and add further capacity for Indonesia to patrol its maritime borders.

The DPR unanimously passed the Bankruptcy Law. In a press conference, Minister of Legal Affairs Albert Hasibuan explained that the law gave the government authority to designate courts as Bankruptcy Courts. Hasibuan said that the law fulfills one of the IMF’s requirements.

5th October 1999:
Try stood with Commander of ABRI Wiranto, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar, Navy Chief of Staff Soeratmin, Air Force Chief of Staff Hanafie Asnan, and Chief of Police Luthfi Dahlan as they saluted the troops on the occasion of ABRI Day.

When he saw Try, Wismoyo joked that he would like to congratulate Try on making amends with his niece but he knew that it was something which won’t last. Try gave Wismoyo a pat on the shoulder and told him “For however long the peace lasts, I hope you’re a popular man to talk to again at family events.”

After the ceremony was over there was a luncheon where Try shook hands with Sudharmono and Umar Wirahadikusumah. The two former vice presidents hailed Try for doing the right thing in making peace with Tutut.

The IMF issued a statement expressing disappointment at the expansion of the cabinet, purchase of 15 patrol boats, the bonuses for the civil servants saying that this was not the most fiscally responsible step towards economic recovery. The IMF also said that Indonesia could benefit from further structural adjustments and liberalization.

6th October 1999:
Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, making a speech at a KADIN Luncheon, spoke that Indonesia’s economic approach under Try Sutrisno has always been a balanced one. It is neither liberal or nationalist but aways based on balance, pragmatism, and the national interest. An example is the policy to let the price of cement be determined by the market but at the same time not lowering tariffs on completely build up private vehicles. Siswono said he agrees that Indonesia needs structural reform but at a pace and timing suitable for Indonesia. Thus, Siswono said that he regrets the IMF’s comments criticizing Indonesia.

7th October 1999:
In a ceremony at the Yogyakarta DPRD Building and witnessed by Sultan Hamengkubuwono X and Prince Paku Alam IX, Try signed the Special Administrative Region of Yogyakarta Law on the Province’s 244th Anniversary. After the signing ceremony, Try made a surprise appearance at Malioboro Road and spoke to tourists, foreign and domestic alike.

Walking among the tourists and the press, a question was thrown to Try about the IMF’s criticism of recent decisions taken by the government.

“I’m happy to explain and discuss them with anyone at the IMF”, said Try.

Over a dinner of gudeg at the Royal Palace, Try, accompanied by Edi Sudrajat and Harsudiono, spoke at length to Hamengkubuwono about Operation Lifeboat. Try said that he wanted Operation Lifeboat to have its headquarters in Yogyakarta. Hamengkubuwono accepted.

8th October 1999:
In the morning Try arrived at Magelang where he met with Commander of ABRI Academy Suaidi Marasabessy and the cadets. After Friday Prayer, he headed to Semarang and its surrounds. Together with Governor of Central Java Prabowo Subianto and Commander of the Central Java Regional Military Command Endriartono Sutarto, Try inspected projects in Semarang and its surrounds. Prabowo said his strategy was to built infrastructure close to projects Try was building to generate economic activity. While Try and Prabowo chatted amiably, Edi Sudrajat and Harsudiono Hartas gave the cold shoulder to Prabowo’s Secretary Fadli Zon.

Try, accompanied by First Lady Tuti Setiawati had dinner with Prabowo and Titiek Soeharto at the Governor’s Residence. Titiek said she was glad things had become normal again between Try and Tutut. Try told Titiek that he never had anything personal against Tutut.

“My father in Jakarta tells me that you’ve become a great politician”, said Prabowo “A formidable coalition that you’ve built there, Mr. President.”

“Only because my opponents are formidable”, replied Try with a smile.

Elsewhere in Semarang, Edi and Harsudiono met with Alip Pandoyo. The latter was ready to curse at them for allowing the President to make his peace with Tutut but a smile appeared on his face when the two told them about Operation Lifeboat.

From their meeting with Alip Pandoyo, the State Secretary and the Minister of Home Affairs joined the President as he boarded the Presidential Airplane. It was already late but the President wanted to have the weekend off in Jakarta.

While the First Lady chatted away with the flight attendants, Edi and Harsudiono found Try looking out the window looking grim.

“What are you thinking about, Mr. President?” asked Edi.

“This peace between me and Tutut, how long do you suppose it will last?” asked Try still looking out in the window.

“We don’t know, Mr. President”, said Harsudiono bluntly “Only that it’s in her interest to keep the peace for as long as possible.”

“You’ve got Operation Lifeboat going on but as you’ve said, Mr. President, you want to use this peace to get as much work done as possible” reminded Edi “Are there any priorities you want to pursue?”

Try turned from the window to two of his Horsemen.

“I want to get the country out of the IMF’s aid program”, said Try.

9th October 1999 (8th October 1999 Washington DC Time)
Michel Camdessus had been IMF Managing Director for nearly 13 years. The last 2 years had been a hectic one, prescribing nations across Southeast Asia plus South Korea and Russia deal with the effects of the Asian Financial Crisis. It had been tiring and he had sworn to himself that he would announce his resignation before the year was out.

There was one thing Camdessus had committed himself to doing in what he now know will be his final months in his present position: bring Indonesia into line with the IMF prescription.

Camdessus had thought that Indonesia would be a tricky case because he doubted Soeharto would have the bravery to take on his cronies and childrens’ economic interests. But then Soeharto passed away and was replaced by Try Sutrisno.

That Try took on, and is still taking on, the interests of his predecessor’s cronies and children must be acknowledged. What Camdessus didn’t like was the fact that Try had maneuvered himself into an arrangement where he got lenience, certainly one of the most that had been given to any nation, by the IMF. Try hid behind keeping the budget balanced, fulfilling agreements agreed to with the IMF, and conducting economic reform in order to keep the IMF off his back. Whenever questions were raised in tri-monthly meetings with IMF officials, the Indonesian government would point to reforms which they had conducted and which they claim “would be in line” with the IMF’s requirements. In exchange for his performance, Try was able to get away with a stimulus package which he launched in May 1998.

It annoyed Camdessus that the governments of Japan, Singapore, and Australia would lobby on Indonesia’s behalf for lenience arguing that it would not be good for them if Indonesia’s economy collapsed because it was too “literal” in implementing the IMF Reforms.

Now things have changed. Try seemed to have overstretched himself. He had cut down on the size of the cabinet but then had expanded it again, approved the creation of first class naval and air bases, and had made purchases of boats to patrol the maritime borders. These were steps which the IMF would not recommend and would most certainly bring up in its tri-monthly meeting with the Indonesian government next week. In addition, circumstances now better suited Camdessus' purpose. If there was time to bring Indonesia into line with the IMF, it would have to be now.

“Yes, that’s right I’ll be making the trip to Jakarta next week”, said Camdessus into the phone as he booked his ticket.

---
We're into October 1999. In OTL we're in the final days of Habibie's presidency.

Try has made his peace with Tutut...at least for the moment.

As in OTL, we're now approaching Camdessus' final months as the Managing Director of the IMF. That part will remain the same though his desire to bring Indonesia in line with the IMF's requirements will be unique to this TL.

 

[GSD310]

11th October 1999:
President Try Sutrisno, Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, and State Minister of Regional Autonomy Oemarsono attend a Regional Revenues Conference attended by the various provinces, regencies, and municipalities’ revenue officers. Though the conference’s purpose was to provide information about how the regions could maximize revenue raising as well as manage revenues which will come under their management at the beginning of the next financial year, Try’s mind was on other issues.

While Harsudiono, Mar’ie and Oemarsono held discussions with the attendants of the conference, Try sat down with Sumarlin and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. It was at this point that Sumarlin came to know about Operation Lifeboat and of Try’s intention of getting Indonesia out of the IMF’s program.

“I’m sorry, I don’t quiet get the point of getting out of the IMF’s program, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin.

“We don’t know how long the peace with Tutut will last”, explained Try “When this peace ends, I don’t want to be in a position where I’m facing both her and the IMF at the same time.”

12th October 1999:
Megawati Soekarnoputri met with Petition of 50 Member and former Governor of Jakarta Ali Sadikin. At the conclusion of the meeting, Ali Sadikin called Try’s step of making peace with Tutut a “dumb move” because it killed his credibility as someone who is able to bring change during his presidency.

Chairman of BP-7 Soegiarto, opening a P4 Training Session in Bogor, said that Pancasila’s place as the national ideology should not mean complacency. For there are still those who seek to replace Pancasila with their own extreme ideologies and worldviews. Soegiarto said that he was prepared to lay down his live for the ideals of Pancasila he believed in.

13th October 1999:
The President, accompanied by the Vice President, welcomed IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus and IMF Deputy Director for Asia Pacific Hubert Neiss. As talks got under way, Try began explaining the policy steps that the government had taken in recent months. He touted in particular the 20th July Policy Package. Sumarlin could tell however that Camdessus was not impressed.

Camdessus spoke next, he expressed his concern that there were decisions taken in recent months which he believed was not in the interest of the nation’s economic recovery: the expansion of the cabinet, the designations of certain naval and air bases as first class, and the purchase of 15 border patrol boats among others. Camdessus argued that Indonesia need to be bought more in line with what the IMF expects of nations that ask for its aid.

Sumarlin argued that the expansion of the cabinet did not add to the budget because it did not lead in the creation of new departments and that all of the actual spending would only be implemented in futue budgets. Sumarlin also said that revenues are exceeding projections because there are BLBI Repayments and the submission of off-budget funds from various departments and agencies to be considered. Camdessus once again was not impressed.

“I don’t know what’s come over him, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin to Try once the meeting ended.

14th October 1999:
The hardball played by the IMF continued on. At the end of a difficult’s day negotiation, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono and Mar’ie Muhammad returned to Try and Sumarlin with the following requests, which included the following:

*Increase alcohol excise by 80%
*Loosen restrictions on opening foreign bank branches
*Cease all subsidies to IPTN and other strategic industries
*Tariff on all food items to be lowered to 5%, tariff on all non-food agricultural food to a maximum of 10%
*Tariff on all chemical products to be lowered to 5%
*All types of export quotas to be abolished within 3 years.

“Some of these are good ideas, some of these we’re working on to be implemented within a few years or when politically viable, and some are just…good luck telling Habibie to give up subsidies to his projects”, said Edi Sudrajat who was sitting in on the meeting.

Governor of BI Boediono, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, and Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti were brought into the meeting to look at the terms Camdessus wanted. All frowned and was unhappy at what Camdessus asked them to do.

“I hate to think what we’d sign up if we didn’t do as well as we have during this crisis”, said Boediono “These are the kinds of terms that a struggling and desperate nation would sign up for.”

15th October 1999:
Camdessus departed from Jakarta in the afternoon expressing satisfaction at how Indonesia was doing but that more could still be done. He was originally scheduled to be seen off by the Vice President at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport. He waited for two hours and before came that the Vice President would not be seeing him off. Instead a letter came signed by the President pledging themselves to “consider carefully” the terms which he had offered. Camdessus smiled and thought that this must be how Indonesians snub those who they feel displeasure with.

At the Palace, Soedradjad Djiwandono held a press conference. The reporters remarked that there were no joint statements or press conferences as was in past practice and the question was asked if “everything was all right?” Soedradjad assured the media throng that everything was all right between the government and the IMF.

18th October 1999:
Try met with Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita. The two discussed recent development in international affairs most notably the coup in Pakistan which put Gen. Pervez Musharaf in power. Try was more interested in what’s going on in IMF and told Ginandjar all about the meetings with Camdessus the previous week.

Ginandjar said he will ask the Indonesian Embassy in Washington to conduct an investigation into “what the dynamics are like” in Washington DC and that he himself will go and discuss with the nations that had backed Indonesia in terms of getting leniency and leeway from the IMF in 1998.

19th October 1999:
Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra successfully introduced the Telecommunications Bill in the DPR.

At Cendana Street, the residence of the Soeharto Family, a meeting got underway in the evening. It was attended by the Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto, the Secretary of Golkar ZA Maulani, the Treasurer of Golkar Akbar Tandjung, DPR Members Hartono and Ary Mardjono, and Governor of Central Java Prabowo Subianto.

The meeting discussed the Golkar National Leadership Meeting which was due to start tomorrow and how preparations had been finalized. More importantly though, they talked about the President and how he wanted to have peace with Tutut. Hartono joked that Tutut had chipped away at the President so well that he would do whatever it takes to get Tutut’s recognition. Prabowo had a more thoughtful response.

“The Try Offensive is over, the people in the President’s coalition are getting insecure about this peace that the Chairwoman has secured, and it’s just time for the Chairwoman of Golkar to strike back”, said Prabowo.

20th October 1999:
Golkar delegates from all around Indonesia gathered to the Jakarta Convention Center for the 1999 Golkar National Leadership Meeting. Once all the delegates had gathered, the first speaker to emerge was none other than Tutut herself. The Chairwoman paid glowing tributes to my “Esteemed predecessors, Chairman Sudharmono, Chairman Wahono, and Chairman Harmoko” as well as “Mr. Habibie, a great contributor to the Golkar cause”.

“But I pay my greatest respect and show my greatest esteem to the person who I have known since all those years ago when he was my father’s aide de camp. Fellow Golkar members would you please stand and welcome our leader, the Chairman of the Council of Patrons, and the President of the Republic of Indonesia, Try Sutrisno!”, announced Tutut.

A loud cheer greeted Try, dressed in a yellow batik as he stepped into the convention center. An even louder cheer and applause waited him when on the stage, he shook hands with Tutut and the two stood side by side lifting each other’s hands. After a short speech, Try hit a gong and opened the 1999 Golkar National Leadership Meeting.

That night there was a celebratory dinner to mark the 35th Anniversary of Golkar’s Foundation. A tumpeng rice was cut by Tutut with the top piece going to Try.

Sitting at a table, Harmoko found himself chatting with Habibie and Wahono.

“This “peace” thing is not good, I can tell you that much”, said Habibie “It’s not going to be a good look for our friends who aren’t here to see us being praised like that.”

“And yet that’s precisely the purpose”, said Harmoko “Ours is a coalition set up to combat Tutut and yet here we are having dinner with her.”

In another part of the room, Edi Sudrajat spoke to Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil who was a guest. He asked Matori to convey to both Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid and Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais that the President remains committed to their alliance.

21st October 1999:
The President and the Chairwoman of Golkar had breakfast with all 27 Chairmen of the Provincial Branches. While Try and Tutut mingled with some of the chairmen after breakfast, Edi Sudrajat sent Hamengkubuwono X and Alip Pandoyo, respectively chairman of the Yogyakarta and Central Java Provincial Branches, messages from the President asking them to come meet with him that night.

After all the day’s activities were over, a secret meeting was convened at the Presidential Palace. Try and Edi were joined by Harsudiono, Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo, and OCDS Sugeng Subroto. Sumarlin also joined the meeting as did DPR Member Basofi Sudirman, Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, and Alip Pandoyo.

“We can all be open with each other”, said Try when he opened the meeting “All of us here are those who are aware of the existence of Operation Lifeboat.”

Basofi reported that he’s managed to recruit operatives to recruit people to Operation Lifeboat’s cause. He added that the operation should be emphasized in Central Java where Tutut’s power is the strongest.

The meeting was mostly remembered by its attendants for agreeing that those recruited onto Operation Lifeboat should be given a “membership card”. The following design was agreed upon:

What the meeting could not agree upon was how long the peace between the President and Tutut would last.

22nd October 1999:
In rapid fire succession, the Golkar National Leadership Meeting today passed a resolution that the three main targets to be achieved by Tutut in the remaining four years of her chairwomanship will be:

*Support President Try Sutrisno and his government in implementing the Seventh Five Year Development Plan (Repelita VII)

*Conduct internal consolidation with a view to leading Golkar to victory at the 2002 Legislative Elections.

*Ensure that the leadership of the nation will continue to belong to the New Order at the 2003 MPR Session.

The Golkar National Leadership Meeting also issued a statement issuing Golkar’s full support for any “program of economic recovery advocated by the President” and that the President’s program for economic recovery “must take precedence over the IMF’s prescriptions.”

Sumarlin, watching the broadcast at home, shuffled uncomfortably at that. That would not play well in Washington DC.

23rd October 1999:
The last day of the Golkar National Leadership Meeting was ended with a final address from Try. After the requisite exhortation calling for Golkar to implement what has been agreed upon at the National Leadership Meeting, Try spoke of other matters, speaking without the help of notes.

“Fellow members, five years ago I could not have imagined that I would be standing and speaking to you all here in this capacity. Five years ago, I had all the trappings of power and yet I couldn’t be more further from it.

Now, it’s been nearly two years since I first took the oath of office. Since that time, I’ve made a lot of decisions and steps. Some will say that I’m not moving quickly enough and some will say that I am moving too quickly. But it can’t be denied that I am making a difference.

My appeal now is for those who perhaps have been given a chance to serve the nation but have not perhaps used their time well enough for the good of the many. Support me and join me, and I am certain that together we can make a difference in the live of our nation.”

The speech was privately scoffed at by Tutut and her supporters though many quickly saw it for an appeal for support to those Golkar members who had remained undecided in who to support out of Try and Tutut.

25th October 1999:
Camdessus issued a statement saying that he remained optimistic and positive for Indonesia’s prospects of economic recovery however he “hopes that the recent rapproachment with opponents of economic reform would not blunt the President’s advocacy of a more open economy and that the best way to counter this development is by wholeheartedly embracing the IMF’s reforms.”

The response from the government came from Sumarlin. The Vice President said that while the steps Indonesia took may not be “exactly the same” as the IMF would have recommended there were no fundamental contradictions between the government and the IMF’s approaches.

26th October 1999:
In Canberra, Ginandjar Kartasasmita accompanied by Indonesian Ambassador to Australia Oetojo Oesman met with Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Downer and Secretary of the Department for Foreign Affairs and Trade Ashton Calvert. Ginandjar appealed for Australia to lobby the IMF and the US Government to show leniency to Indonesia.

Downer was curt. He told Ginandjar that as Indonesia was in the IMF’s program and that perhaps Indonesia should strictly obey the IMF Program. Ginandjar was displeased at this. On the way from the meeting, Oetojo Oesman said that Prime Minister John Howard felt that his government had burned up politicl capital for making unofficial interventions to help secure BLBI Repayments last September and for being one of the first nations to agree that there would be no further questioning of East Timor’s status in Indonesia. Oetojo said that Howard was due to hand over the Prime Ministership in slightly less than a year and would like to spend his political capital on other priorities.

27th October 1999:
President Try held a meeting with Sumarlin and Ginandjar Kartasasmita who had returned from Canberra. Edi Sudrajat sat in on the meeting. The special attendee at the meeting was Indonesia’s Ambassador to the United States Nana Sutresna.

“I spoke to Prime Minister Goh of Singapore on the phone, he’ll continue to appeal on our part” said Try.

“So will Obuchi of Japan, I can be sure of that, Mr. President”, said Ginandjar referring to his Japanese links “But Australia…”

“They made the strong argument that if I were to strictly follow the IMF’s program there’s a chance there will be unrest in Indonesia”, finished Try “Now, based on what you tell me, they’re not going to help us this time.”

The meeting turned to Nana Sutresna who began reporting on the politics surrounding the IMF’s suddenly more hardline attitude towards Indonesia based on what he got from attending diplomatic functions in Washington.

*Nana Sutresna said that Lawrence “Larry” Summers became the United States Secretary of Treasury in July 1999. As Deputy Secretary of the Treasury he had been one of the advocates of Indonesia strictly following the IMF’s program. He was overruled by his superiors who were swayed by lobbying efforts by the governments of Australia, Japan, and Singapore but especially the former. Summers was determined not to be overruled again and make his mark.

*Stanley Fischer the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF is a close friend and colleague of Summers. Fischer became the bridge between Summers and Camdessus. Summers and Camdessus agreed that Indonesia had to be brought more in line with the IMF’s program. Summers told Camdessus that there was no better time to push than now because he had become aware that Australia was not inclined to intervene.

“You’re saying 3 guys sitting around in Washington DC is the cause of all this?” asked Edi with disbelief.

“Summers is a tough nut”, said Sumarlin “But the market is still on our side, the currency hadn’t lost is value.”

“As long as we show ourselves to be capable at managing the economy, the market will trust us, Mr. Vice President”, muttered Try “But right now, the game we’ve found ourselves in is a diplomatic rather than economic one.”

---
The policy steps Camdessus offered are from the 15th January 1998 agreement signed between Soeharto and Camdessus OTL.

In OTL, Downer tried to lobby Larry Summers on Indonesia’s behalf to be given leniency by the IMF but it didn’t work. https://books.google.co.id/books?id...KHaXSBSYQ6AEILTAA#v=onepage&q=Summers&f=false

The consequence of Try making his peace with Tutut is that his seriousness to conduct economic reform comes under question and his coalition partners are saying that there was no reason for Try’s coalition to exist. Although of course, Try and Tutut making peace is just a way for Try to buy time for Operation Lifeboat.

 

[Derff]

Agricultural reforms and research are needed. Afterall it does not make sense for a big, tropical country to import so much food.

 

[GSD310]

Agricultural reforms and research are needed. Afterall it does not make sense for a big, tropical country to import so much food.

I’m sure more to do with agricultural reforms will come up in the future. For the moment, the big reform in agriculture can be found on 20th July 1999 with non-state run rural cooperatives being allowed to be established and purchase crops from farmers while farmers are no longer strictly limited to selling to the KUD, which is the government approved rural cooperatives.

And just on a random note, I do spend some time researching to get a sense of what policies were around OTL during these times and also to figure out what policies would be compatible with the “spirit” of Try’s government. My two main sources are:

https://sipuu.setkab.go.id/: this is the Cabinet Secretariat’s legislation website. All sorts of laws, regulations, presidential regulations and instructions are contained here and gives a certain taste of policies taken.

https://www.bappenas.go.id/id/data-...an-dan-pelaksanaan/dokumen-pidato-kenegaraan/: This is the National Development Planning Agency’s State Address archives. The President’s state address contains appendices of various policy decisions taken during a certain year.

Both sites are in Indonesian.

Of course, I do a bit of mix and match in terms of policies implemented by Try. We’ve got policies that has been implemented OTL but hasn’t been implemented ITTL during a certain time. We’ve got policies implemented ITTL but hasn’t been implemented OTL during a certain time.

 

[Corax]

If I recall correctly, I read somewhere that one of the key issue is the lack of mechanisation and improved seeds.

 

[GSD310]

28th October 1999:
President Try Sutrisno had a meeting with Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono and Chairman of KADIN Aburizal Bakrie. The President approved of Bakrie’s idea to hold an Infrastructure Summit to put on display infrastructure projects which are available in Indonesia and which are still on hold and attract private investment. Try ordered Soedradjad and Bakrie to hold this summit before the year was out.

29th October 1999:
Try had Friday Prayer and then lunch with the shareholders of his Pancasila Coalition: Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie, former Chairman of DPR/MPR Wahono, Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil, Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid, and Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais.

The meeting noted Sudharmono’s absence although the former vice president had been invited. The news doing the rounds was that while Sudharmono supported Try, he had never been comfortable with the idea of being in political conflict with Tutut.

Harmoko, widely seen to be positioning himself as second behind the President in the coalition’s pecking order, encouraged members of the coalition to be tough on Tutut if she “tries anything funny.”

1st November 1999:
The President and his delegation arrived this morning at Padang, West Sumatra and was welcomed by Governor Muchlis Ibrahim and Commander of the Northern Sumatra Regional Military Command Ahmad Yahya. After a welcome ceremony, Try and his delegation and welcoming committee got into their cars and began going through today’s itinerary.

First stop was the City of Padangpanjang. In a small ceremony also attended by Minister of Education Wardiman Djojonegoro and State Minister of Arts and Culture Subrata, Try inaugurated the Padangpanjang Arts Academy. Formerly a Musical Academy, the institution was converted into an academy covering all arts. To mark its recent conversion, the academy will be adding cultural artisanship and theatre arts to its courses.

After having lunch with the lecturers and the students there, Try made his way back to Padang. Here, accompanied by Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Try inaugurated the Fifth Factory unit belonging to Semen Padang, a state-owned cement company. The establishment of the unit adds 2,3 million tones to Indonesia’s cement-producing capacity. Try spent the night in Padang.

2nd November 1999:
In the morning, Try flew to Pekanbaru, Riau. Accompanied by Minister of Health Azrul Azwar and Governor of Riau Syarwan Hamid, Try inaugurated Awal Bros Hospital which was a private general hospital. After taking a look around Pekanbaru to see the economic activity in the city, Try flew back in Jakarta.

At the DPR, Harmoko hosted Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Ahmad Sumargono, Husein Umar and other members of the Crescent and Star Forum, a discussion forum which had been active in Jakarta within the last 6 months. Yusril asked that the Special Administrative Region of Aceh Bill be amended to contain provisions acknowledging the place of Sharia Law in Aceh.

3rd November 1999:
The President, accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu today welcomed Japan’s Minister of International Trade and Industry Takashi Fukaya who brought with him a delegation from the Keidanren, Japan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. In a press conference afterwards, Fukaya said that the Keidanren remains confident in Indonesia as a place to invest.

Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas said that Indonesian law, not Sharia law, will be in effect in Aceh.

4th November 1999:
Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman and OCDS Sugeng Subroto held a joint press conference to speak about what has been achieved in the 18 months since the stimulus package. Hayono Isman did most of the talking and reported the following among others:

*Of the 3,000 junior high school buildings, both state and Islamic junior high schools, 2,123 has been constructed.
*Of the 40,000 defence housing targeted, 28,678 has been constructed largely in Aceh, East Timor, Irian Jaya, and Maluku.
*Of the 80,000 houses refurbished in various cities and villages, 61,987 has been refurbished and this has mainly taken the form of tiling floors of dirt houses and improving roofings.

Sugeng Subroto said that he has gone around and inspected these projects himself. He said the scope of the stimulus was such that it has legitimately taken some time to construct these buildings though he pointed out there are elements of contractors trying to make a project go on for longer out of fear that there was no work waiting for them at the end of a project. Sugeng added the President has instructed that all the schools and housing construction targets be fulfilled by the two-year anniversary of the stimulus.

8th November 1999:
At Kebon Jeruk in Jakarta’s west, the President attended the launching of Metro TV which was owned by Surya Paloh and had Bambang Trihatmodjo as some of its investors. Interviewed by the media at the conclusion ceremony Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra said that it was a sign of the increasing sophistication of Indonesian viewers that there was a market for a news and documentary-oriented television network like Metro TV. He says that his department’s processing an application by Chairul Tanjung to establish his own television station.

In the Presidential Car afterwards, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat asks Try if Metro TV will be friendly towards him.

“Metro will be like RCTI, neutral but always leaning towards Tutut”, said Try “I’ve got TVRI, Anteve, and Indosiar anyway, I’m not too worried.”

9th November 1999:
In a ceremony at the Presidential Palace, the President today awarded the title of National Hero to Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Djatikusumo. A Prince from Solo, Djatikusumo rose to become the nation’s first Army Chief of Staff. The award had a personal aspect for Try. Djatikusumo was at the recruiter’s desk when Try signed up to join the Army. He liked Try enough to tell him to retake the entrance exam when Try failed the first time.

In a surprise announcement, Michel Camdessus announced his resignation from his post as IMF Managing Director. This resignation will take effect in February 2000. In the interview after the announcement, Camdessus expressed his confidence that the approach he has taken will continue. On Indonesia, he hopes that Indonesia will fall into line with the IMF’s “accepted practice” and that he wishes Indonesia was "more like Thailand" in terms of its adherence to the IMF.

10th November 1999:
The President had breakfast with Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Soedradjad Djiwandono, and Mar’ie Muhammad with Edi Sudrajat and Hayono Isman sitting in as well. In a summary of the situation that the participants had no trouble agreeing with, Try declared that Camdessus is resigning and trying to make Indonesia one of his “last crusades”.

The meeting decided that with 7 weeks left in the year, economic activity in the nation was to be maximized. Sumarlin said that they could ride on the back of civil servants getting bonuses for the final three months of the year and Ramadan but he’ll see what he can do. Try added that as maximum as an economic growth as the economy will allow will show the world that Indonesia is strong.

“But that still doesn’t solve the issue of Camdessus, Mr. President”, said Ginandjar “He wants to pick a fight. It won’t impress him.”

“The ultimate goal is to get out of the IMF’s program and repay all the aid they’ve given us as soon as possible”, replied Try.

“If that is a short term aim it would be difficult, we would have to slow down economic growth because we’ll be directing our funds to repaying the IMF debt, Mr. President”, said Mar’ie looking worried.

“I know, which is why we’ll do the next best thing”, said Try “Make sure that the next IMF Managing Director, whoever he is, is friendly towards us.”

11th November 1999:
The President issued a circular to all departments and agencies calling for all spending to be diverted from routine matters (conferences, regional visits by officials, purchasing of new office equipment etc.) to projects coming under the department or agency’s purview in the aim of maximizing economic growth for the year. This diversion of funds to last until 31st December 1999.

The Vice President and Head of BNP2TKI Tosari Widjaja conducts a surprise inspection at Soekarno-Hatta Airport catching out officials trying to ask for bribes in dollars from Indonesian overseas workers returning home. Sumarlin said that such practices must stop because the foreign exchange brought home from other countries can help boost the economy.

12th November 1999:
In a press conference at Golkar Headquarters, Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut announced that she has appointed Sudharmono to chair the committee in charge of holding and overseeing the Golkar Provincial Congresses. The Provincial Congresses itself will begin to take place in the new year after the Eid’l Fitr Holidays.

Harmoko watched the press conference from his office in the DPR and grunted. Across the desk from him was Abdurrahman Wahid who was coming to visit and issue an invitation to the upcoming NU National Congress which will be held from 21st-27th November.

“He is the weak spot in the coalition and Tutut is taking advantage of that”, commented Wahid.

“We have a good coalition, it’s just that the President making his peace with Tutut makes us all nervous”, replied Harmoko “We don’t have a reason for existing if there’s peace with Tutut.”

“We have a reason and that is to provide the President with as broad a range of support among Indonesia’s mainstream political forces as possible”, said Wahid, nose twitching “And we still need him because Ginandjar and all his guys are Sudharmono's proteges.”

15th November 1999:
The President marked his 64th birthday by welcoming Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea Mekere Morauta. During their discussions, Morauta reiterated PNG’s stance that Irian Jaya was a legitimate part of Indonesia though he urged more cooperation at the Indonesia-PNG border so there was no need for incursions by ABRI forces into the PNG.

In a short ceremony, Try and Morauta witnessed Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and PNG Minister of Trade and Industry Tukape Masani sign a bilateral trade agreement.

During their joint press conference, Try was asked about what he thought about Morauta who became prime minister just 4 months prior after a period of instability and who was now embarking on economic reform.

“Well, Indonesia is for stability not only within the country but also in all nations across the world, Indonesia supports those who are for stability in all nations across the world, and Indonesia is for stability in all nations across the world because it’s conducive for Indonesia’s development and economic growth”, said Try in a long tangent before finally remarking that “And Prime Minister Morauta is a positive force for that stability.”

16th November 1999:
After Morauta called on him for the final time before the Irian Jaya leg of his Indonesian visit, the President sat down with Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Edi Sudrajat to go over his upcoming overseas itinerary, which will include Germany.

“The Chancellor is Gerhard Schroeder, he’s been in office for around 14 months”, explained Ginandjar “He advocates a more assertive German foreign policy, he’s a natural partner for us in Europe if we ourselves would like to assert our presence on the world stage.”

“Anything else I need to know about Germany other than the fact that Habibie used to go to school and work there?” asked Try flipping through his notes.

“Germany and Schroeder may be important to us in our efforts to deal with the IMF”, said Ginandjar.

Try looked up from his notes.

“One person’s already put their hand up to become IMF Managing Director and that’s Stanley Fischer who’s first in the line of succession. Stanley Fischer of course being acceptable to Camdessus and US Treasury. But that goes against the accepted convention of Americans being charge of the World Bank and Europeans in charge of the IMF”, continued Ginandjar.

“So someone from Europe will emerge to go with the existing convention?” asked Edi.

“Precisely”, said Ginandjar “Camdessus is from France so it’s unlikely that Europe will support another candidate from there. That leaves us with Germany as the European nation most likely to nominate a candidate. There’s a good chance he’ll talk about this matter with you.”

17th November 1999:
JB Sumarlin conducted a surprise inspection of a Job Expo held in Surabaya to see how things were developing. Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris, who was attending the event, did not expect to see the Vice President there but ran across to him to bring him a piece of paper with a set of figures on it. Sumarlin looked at it with disbelief but was overjoyed.

Emerging out of a meeting with the President, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja said the President has instructed him to strike a balance between getting rid of uneccesary bureaucracy and ensuring aviation safety. Soerjadi met the President on the occasion of reporting about applications fo the establishment of an Airline which the Department of Transportation had received.

Soerjadi also reported that the Seatbelt Inspectors program which had been formed as part of the May 1998 Stimulus Package to create employment is attracting 50% less applicants during the course of the year, which means that that people are finding “employment elsewhere”.

18th November 1999:
In a ceremony at the Presidential Palace, the President promoted Vice Admiral Indroko Sastrowiryono, presently Inspector General of ABRI, to the rank of admiral and swore him in as the new Navy Chief of Staff.

From swearing in the new Navy Chief of Staff, Try went around to Jakarta’s main markets for impromptu visits: Pasar Baru, Mangga Dua, and then ending up at Tanah Abang. Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso heard about what the President was doing and joined him at Mangga Dua. Try greeted traders and buyers alike. The traders said that in the past few months the crowds have picked up again and that it’s expected to get extremely crowded for Ramadan, Christmas, and Eid’l Fitr holidays as people prepare to buy clothes and other goods for the holiday season. People there to buy make comments along the lines of “I’ve been working again” or “my business is starting to generate revenue again”.

19th November 1999:
It was still afternoon but Try was already at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport ready to depart for Berlin so that he could be there by tomorrow morning Berlin time. When he arrived, he went immediately to the Airport’s VIP Room accompanied by Edi Sudrajat. Sumarlin was waiting there. The Vice President had requested a meeting prior to the President’s departure for Germany. Sumarlin began talking to Try about his going to a Job Expo in Surabaya and what Fahmi Idris reported to him. Sumarlin produced a paper for Try to look.

“Look at this, Mr. President. According to the Department of Manpower and Small Business, in the Job Expos it has held in Indonesia over the last 6 months, the tourism sector is the largest participants in the Job Expo and the jobs they’ve offered have continued to grow. And yet at the same time, the tourism sector's participation as measured with a percentage is decreasing”, reported Sumarlin.

“…all the other sectors are catching up”, said Try with some disbelief as he looked the figures “They’re creating employment as well.”

“Yes, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin as he guided Try’s gaze “But that’s not all. Oil and gas are constant. But look here, manufacturing turned a corner in June and began recruiting more people to its factories. The services sector as well….Also the construction sector, they turned their corner in September with more and more suspended projects getting underway again.”

The Vice President brought another sheet of paper to the President.

“I got some statistics about electronics, some of the basic consumer goods people that people in every household are likely to have:

*Air conditioner: 96/97: 254,000 produced; 97/98: 299,700 produced; 98/99: 314,100 produced; current financial year: 350,000 produced and we’ve still got 3-4 months left in the financial year.

*Refrigerators: 96/97: 513,000 produced; 97/98: 590,000 produced; 98/99: 612,000 produced; current financial year 640,000 with 3-4 months left in the financial year.

*Lightbulbs: 96/97: 618 million produced; 97/98: 717 million produced; 98/99: 762 million produced; current financial year 844 million produced with 3-4 months left in the financial year”, explained Sumarlin.

“So they’re producing more this financial year than during the last, which was the worst part of the crisis”, concluded Try.

“Industries are producing more because there’s more demand for their products and because there’s more demand or their products they’re going to employ more workers to produce their products. And then those workers, those who use to be unemployed, they’re going to once again have income.

They’re not going to be as nervous about holding on to their money. They’re going to spend it to buy electronics, consumer goods, travel, whatever. They’re going to replace things which have grown old or obsolete like broken lightbulbs or old AC units.

The currency’s stable, the prices are quite predictable, why won’t they spend their money?

And then it goes around and around. The factories will receive more orders for their products and they’ll need to produce more and they’ll need to employ more.”

Try was thrilled. His mind went back to his visit to the markets in Jakarta and what all the buying and selling meant to the economy. He tried to contain his excitement by nodding gravely in response to Sumarlin’s economics lecture.

Sumarlin however can barely hide how excited he was.

“This is it, Mr. President”, he said “This crisis is coming to an end.”

---
So there it is, assuming the correct steps are taken, the vested interests (BLBI, Tommy Soeharto’s monopolies) are taken on, and a balance is struck between policies that are pro-people and those that will please the market, by my count, Indonesia would probably be on the verge of coming out of the crisis some time in late 1999.

OTL, a combination of the economy reaching a really bad point ($1= Rp. 17,000 in January 1998) and political instability meant that the crisis couldn’t be said to have ended till what…late Megawati Presidency or early SBY?

Stats cited are from https://www.bappenas.go.id/id/data-...rtanggungjawaban-presiden-tahun-1993-sd-1998/ specifically Chapter XII: Industry

There’s going to be a bit of an international flavor as we deal with the effects of Camdessus’ resignation. OTL, Camdessus also resigned in November 1999 with some diplomatic jockeying going on to find his replacement in the months afterwards.

 

[Pilatypus]

Try was thrilled. His mind went back to his visit to the markets in Jakarta and what all the buying and selling meant to the economy. He tried to contain his excitement by nodding gravely in response to Sumarlin’s economics lecture.

Sumarlin however can barely hide how excited he was.

My reaction to this update can be described by these lines. Suck it Camdessus, these data and public mood are strong argument against your prescriptions. Any comparation against other countries adhering to stricter terms?