Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

My reaction to this update can be described by these lines. Suck it Camdessus, these data and public mood are strong argument against your prescriptions. Any comparation against other countries adhering to stricter terms?

Thailand was a country that strictly stuck to the IMF prescriptions. According to the Economy of Thailand’s Wikipedia page, Thailand recorded negative economic growth of -10.5% in 1998 before rebounding to 4.4% in 1999. And Thailand did not experience the political and social upheaval that Indonesia went through.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand
 
Comparison of economic growth in the original 5 ASEAN Countries for 1998:

Indonesia:
Leader: President Try Sutrisno (29th November 1997-now)
Growth: 3.9%
Receiving IMF Aid

Malaysia:
Leader: Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad (16th July 1981-15th October 1998), Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (15th October 1998-now)
Growth:-9%
Not receiving IMF Aid

Singapore:
Leader: Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong (28th November 1990-now)
Growth: 1.5%
Not receiving IMF Aid

Philippines:
Leader: President Fidel Ramos (30th June 1992-30th June 1998), President Joseph Estrada (30th June 1998-now)
Growth: -0.6%
Receiving IMF Aid

Thailand:
Leader: Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai (9th November 1997-now)
Growth: -10.5%
Receiving IMF Aid

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Singapore, Philippines, and Thailand's economic growths are as OTL. Malaysia does not receive IMF Aid as in OTL but goes through the political turmoil which leads to Mahathir's removal. Mahathir does not have Soeharto's fall from power to keep him paranoid against the possibility of being taken down. UMNO chooses to do away with both Mahathir and his rival Anwar Ibrahim and opts to turn to Abdullah Ahamd Badawi.

Stats for Singapore, Philippines, and Thailand are from each respective country's economic history pages on Wikipedia.
 
Miscellaneous Happenings In Indonesia: 1997-1999
Miscellaneous: Circa 1997-1999
Soeharto’s Legacy:
Abdul Gafur, former Vice Chairman of DPR (1997-1998), Vice Chairman of Golkar (1993-1998), and Minister of Youth and Sports (1978-1988) has completed work on a biography of Soeharto’s final years. The biography will continue Soeharto’s life story from his inauguration in 1988 (where Soeharto’s autobiography ends) to Soeharto’s death in November 1997. It is due for release on 29th November 1997.

Economy/Business:

-The consequence of tourism being one of Indonesia’s most lucrative sectors during the crisis is that it has become a prestigious thing for people, from all levels of society, to have their son or daughter work in a hotel especially if it’s a 4-5 star hotel in Jakarta or Bali. The actual rank doesn’t matter because even bellboys are hailed as heroes in their village.

-Dabbling in small business has come close to gaining status as a national hobby as housewives, the unemployed, youths who have graduated from university but are struggling to find employment, returning Indonesian overseas workforces, all try their luck at running a business. This tendency is further reinforced by the government’s small business crash course program which was rolled out as part of their stimulus package and a show entitled Berusaha Jadi Pengusaha (Efforts At Being A Businessman) which is broadcast on TVRI every Sunday at 8 PM and hosted by Rhenald Khasali, a change management expert from the University of Indonesia.

-The arrival of Starbucks in Indonesia in 1999 was seen by the international business world that Indonesia is a safe place to invest in. Starbucks was due to open in Malaysia in 1998 but cancelled because of the lack of political stability there. The BKPM sniffed an opportunity and encouraged Starbucks to invest in Indonesia instead to the point of allocating account executives to help Starbucks navigate the Indonesian bureaucracy.

-For the lower classes, surviving the crisis meant returning to their home village to work in the fields and harvest the crops during harvest season. For the middle classes, it meant thanking the lucky stars the exchange rate to the dollar has remained stable and hoping that their savings will last until an economic recovery and they can get another job during the economic recovery. For the upper middle classes it meant foregoing the holiday to Europe so they can afford to keep supporting their children’s education in Australia. Only the richest of the rich are privileged enough to not have been effected by the crisis.

Social/Culture:

-Garin Nugroho’s Daun Di Atas Bantal, starring and produced by actress Christine Hakim, won the Best Movie Award at the Asia-Pacific Film Festival. The movie was originally scheduled for completion in October 1997 when the Asian Financial Crisis struck and it ran out of financing. The then Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Ginandjar Kartasasmita helped to provide some of the funding so that the movie could be completed and be released in August 1998. As Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ginandjar has called on the film to be shown during cultural events by Indonesian embassies around the world.

-The National Discipline Movement headed by former Chief of Police Gen. (Pol.) Sanoesi is making strides in its campaign, begun in February 1999, to encourage people to queue properly instead of pushing in. The campaign included an ad starring Project Pop, a band known for its parody songs, and its song Antrilah Di Loket (Line Up at the Ticket Booth). This had led to a phenomenon where people seeing someone push into a queue would break into song. In typical Indonesian fashion, the person pushing in will try to fight back verbally or simply ignore what’s being said. Amazingly the results point to the person pushing in feeling embarrassed and walking to the back of the line

Sports:

-At the 13th Asian Games, held in Bangkok, Thailand in December 1998, Indonesia finished tenth in the middle tally with 37 medals.

-With 158 medals, Indonesia placed second behind Thailand in the medal tally at the Southeast Asian Games held in Brunei Darussalam in August 1999.

-Indonesian Football League: Pelita Bakrie of Jakarta defeated Persebaya 2-1 in the final of the 1997/1998 Season of the Indonesian League on 26th July 1998.

Media:

-TV Networks and their political stances:
TVRI (Owned by the State): Pro-Try but trying to dress it up in neutrality

RCTI (Owned by Bambang Trihatmodjo): Neutral but tending towards being pro-Tutut

SCTV (Owned by Sudwikatmono): Pro-Tutut

Anteve (Owned by Aburizal Bakrie): Pro-Try

Indosiar (Owned by Salim Group): Pro-Try

TPI (Owned by Tutut Soeharto): Pro-Tutut

Metro TV (Owned by Surya Paloh but Bambang Trihatmodjo as an investor): Claims to be neutral and impartial in its marketing.

-1998 and 1999 have become known as the years in which internet news websites have begun to flourish. Two sites in particular were making its mark: Tempointeraktif and Detik.com. Both were online versions of magazines previously banned by Harmoko in 1994. The government has thus far allowed both websites to exist.

Islamism:

-In December 1998, a group calling themselves the Islamic Defenders’ Front (FPI) took it upon themselves to conduct against “immoral places” such as bars frequented by foreigners until on one occasion, their action backfired and they were the ones beaten up by the bouncers at a bar. The matter was investigated by the Jakarta Metropolitan Police who reported back that its members were those who are angry at society because they felt they had had the worst luck during the financial crisis rather than those who were truly religious. The members were severely reprimanded by their community who told them that the “employment was there if they looked rather than mixing around with that scoundrel Habib Rizieq Shihab”. Rizieq Shihab was put under surveillance by the Police.

-More seriously for the government was a group calling itself the Crescent and Moon Forum which was headed by Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Soeharto’s former speechwriter and contained members such as Ahmad Sumargono and Abdul Qadir Djaelani. They are known to take a critical view of Try Sutrisno’s government and saw it as hostile to Islam. They are well connected and are known to have links with Fadli Zon, Secretary to the Governor of Central Java Prabowo Subianto and through Prabowo, they are able to get in touch with Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto.

-Fahri Hamzah is using his position as staff member to Secretary of ICMI Adi Sasono to encourage friends and acquaintances to join ICMI. Among associates who he is encouraging to join ICMI were among others Hidayat Nur Wahid, Nurmahmudi Ismail, and Ahmad Heryawan. All these men are products of the Dakwah Tarbiyah (Proselytize and Educate) movement which is active in campuses from 80s onward. The Dakwah Tarbiyah movement itself is inspired by the Islamic Brotherhood movement in Egypt. The general consensus among these associates is that ICMI is not the right vehicle for their struggle given that its chairman, BJ Habibie, is an ally of Try Sutrisno.

Certain Individuals:

-CEO, Editor and Founder of Detik.com Eros Djarot resigned his position in March 1999 to focus on assisting Megawati Soekarnoputri in her bid to win at the 2001 PDI National Congress. Eros Djarot is replaced in his position as CEO and Editor by Detik.com’s Director of Research and Development Muhaimin Iskandar.

-NTI Resources Ltd is a Canadian-based mining company where Sandiaga Uno, a business masters graduate, had come to work and be promoted to the rank of Director of Finance. Feeling the effects of the Asian Financial Crisis, NTI Resources Ltd struggled through by the end of 1998, it became apparent that the company will survive. In 1999, Sandiaga was promoted to Director of Operations. This suited him well, he enjoyed living in Canada and began to apply for permanent resident status.

-On one of his visits back home to Jakarta, Sandiaga recruited Basuki Tjahaja Purnama to work for NTI Resources. A Chinese-Indonesian with an entrepreneurial and mining engineering background, Basuki got sick of dealing with Indonesian bureaucracy. His father told him that his best place was in Indonesia, but Basuki never ceased nursing his desire of moving to Canada. Basuki finally did just that, moving to Canada with his young family to work for NTI Resources in early 1998.

-One of the people to watch at the present time in the government ranks is Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Assistant to the Vice Presidential Secretary for Economic Affairs. A tough young woman, she has been credited for helping Vice President JB Sumarlin prepare the advice that he was to give to the President. Sumarlin told Sri Mulyani that he was always talking her up whenever he met with the President.

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Just some notes about happenings inside the country (and also take a break from the Try did a, made decisions on b, etc.) across various areas. I consider them to be things described in this update to be things that have been happening “off-screen”.

I used the sports to highlight that Indonesia did better ITTL in the Asian and SEA Games than in OTL. Also highlighted the Indonesian League results because in OTL, the competition was suspended as a result of the events of May 1998, Soeharto’s fall, and the generally unstable situation.

We’ve also got a milder and less taken seriously version of FPI because the economic isn’t as bad but we also got the TL’s versions of Crescent and Moon Party (PBB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) existing though not yet as political parties.

Below is the link to the song Line Up at the Ticket Booth which is a parody of I Can Love You Like That by All 4 One.

One more post this week and then it's off to Lebaran Holidays for me!
 
Cak Imin was in detik? Never knew that.

Also sad to see Ahok go :( (dont care much for sandi)

https://nasional.kompas.com/read/20...-termuda-dpr-yang-kini-jadi-pimpinan?page=all

In his profile it says he was there from 1993. He then joined and ran as a legislative candidate for PKB in 1999.

Ahok’s talked openly a few times about how he originally wanted to move to Canada rather than enter politics.

But then there’s this episode where he was given a hard time trying to take his deceased father’s body to Bangka Belitung that could have been the final straw: https://megapolitan.kompas.com/read...ngan.Ahok.Membawa.Jenazah.Ayahnya.ke.Belitung

Reading some of the profiles of the more recent politicians to see what they were doing before they got into politics is interesting stuff. You do wonder whether they would have gotten into politics if it were not for Reformasi.

Woo hoo, long live Indonesia!

The downside to this is that the economic recovery runs the risk of being taken for granted. This being an Indonesia that never went through May 1998 or the Rupiah at $1= Rp. 17,0000.
 
Imagine Ahok-Sandi pair running for governorship. They're both relatively young for that position and might be able to bring more changes as demographics turned to young voters.
Recovery being taken for granted is much preferable to the alternative. That said hopefully this would be a test case in future macroeconomics on how quick decisive action that factors local condition, assessed by proffessionals rather than politicians is able to prevent the worst of a crisis rather than blindingly following foreign recommendation.
 
My own opinion about the 30 September movement is this: Soeharto wasn't behind the 30 September movement (or orchestrated it) but, like Stalin after Kirov's death (IMO, Stalin wasn't behind Kirov's murder; he did use it as an excuse to launch his own purges, though), used their actions to increase his own power, IMO...
 
75: Two Years of Try
20th November 1999:
It was a Saturday but matters of the state must be attended to as President Try Sutrisno and his delegation touched down in Berlin, Germany. He was welcomed by President Johannes Rau, the Head of State in Germany.

The real meeting however was with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Initial talks were attended by Try, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat on behalf of Indonesia while Schroeder, and Minister for Foreign Affairs Joschka Fischer attended on behalf of Germany. Schroeder outlined that he wanted to “normalize” German foreign policy and wanted Germany to pursue its interests in international affairs. Try sat back and wondered if he should spend more time outlining a philosophy for Indonesian foreign policy for his presidency the way Schroeder had for his chancellorship.

The day ended with a State Dinner hosted by President Rau.

21st November 1999:
Try taped an interview for Deutsche Welle Television. He was asked questions about various things related to Indonesia and his presidency. The toughest question that was asked by Anchor Amrita Cheema was whether or not he saw himself as a continuing or changing the path that was charted by Soeharto.

“I see the the economic development plan that we’re working on as a continuation of President Soeharto’s work though obviously there are some aspects such as monopolies in the like that needs to be cha…improved upon and shifted”, said Try.

“You seem to be avoiding the word “change”, Mr. President”, prodded Cheema.

“I tend to see myself trying to work within the existing institutions and maximizing their capacity rather than changing things for change’s sake”, continued Try.

Back home in East Java, the NU National Congress was opened by Vice President JB Sumarlin on behalf of the President. Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid was the star of the event attended by various cabinet ministers. Other members of the President’s Pancasila Coalition were there as was Chairwoman of Golkar of Tutut.

22nd November 1999:
With German Minister for Education and Research Edelgard Buhlman as his tour guide, Try and Minister of Education Wardiman Djojonegoro toured a vocational school in Berlin. From there, it was off to the Chancellery. With Try and Schroeder standing behind them, Wardiman and Buhlman signed a Cooperation for Technical and Vocational Education Agreement.

Wardiman said this agreement will see a transfer of knowledge on how conduct technical and vocational education from Germany to Indonesia. Teachers and students alike will be sent on exchange from and to both countries. Wardiman said the aim is so that Indonesia’s vocational education system can be improved and students who want to become electricians and plumbers can get the best training and qualification.

Dinner was with the members of the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce. After a keynote speech, Try took questions from the audience. One of the businessmen in the audience asked with Indonesia now well on the road to recovery, was there anything that Try worried about in terms of managing Indonesia’s economy.

“If I can be honest with you, Sir, I worry that we’d lose the urgency that we have shown in the past two years if we recovered from this crisis”, said Try “I worry that we’d go back to business as usual.”

There was a loud applause from the room. Edi Sudrajat visibly placed a hand on the TVRI cameraman’s shoulder so everything would be taped.

“Look, I want Indonesia to be where Germany is at right now and hopefully soon. And for that to happen we can’t revert back to business as usual, we’ve got to carry on”, continued Try.

23rd November 1999:
Try’s worry that Indonesia would go back to “business as usual” if it was to recover from the crisis made headline news back in Indonesia. Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja commented that the President had pretty much expressed what all his ministers are thinking.

Try spent the first half of the day with Mayor of Berlin Eberhard Diepgen, the Berlin business community, and looking around at what Berlin was like. Commander of Presidential Bodyguards AR Gaffar kept a close watch on the crowds and ordered all personnel for extra attention when pro-East Timorese protesters could be heard above the din.

That afternoon, Try and First Lady Tuti Setiawati had tea with Schroeder and Mrs. Doris Schroeder. After dinner, Mrs. Schroeder gave a tour of the Chancellery to the First Lady. Meanwhile Try chatted with Schroeder.

It turned out to be the conversation that Try had expected all trip. Schroeder said that he intended to nominate a German candidate for the IMF Managing Director’s position which Camdessus was due to vacate.

“Mr. President, I know that Camdessus has put you under fire and criticized your policies, beneficial as they are to your country’s road to recovery”, said Schroeder, sounding like a salesman “Perhaps a German in charge of the IMF can make life for you and the other Southeast Asians easier.”

Try smiled and told Schroeder that he would consider it.

After dining with the Indonesian community at the Indonesian Embassy in Berlin, the President left on the Presidential Airplane.

24th November 1999:
The DPR today passed the Special Administrative Region of Aceh Law. As Chairman of DPR Harmoko banged on the gavel, he reminded all those present that Indonesia officially has 5 Special Administrative Regions and that all these special regions were legal. A standing applause erupted in the DPR as Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas nodded his head in acknowledgement and clapped back at the DPR members.

The President touched down mid-morning at Bangkok, Thailand. He was welcomed at the airport by Minister of Foreign Affairs Surin Pitsuwan. There was a working meeting attended by Try, Ginandjar, Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, and Edi Sudrajat for Indonesia and Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai, Deputy Prime Minister/Minister of Commerce Supacahai Panitchpakdi, and Surin Pitsuwan to talk about economic ties and the economic situation in Indonesia and Thailand.

After the meeting broke up, Try and Chuan went and had a one-on-one session. Chuan said that he followed the IMF’s policies to the letter and got -10.5% economic growth for 1998 and an opposition looking to take advantage of the fact that the policies would be difficult and unpopular. Try said he doesn’t want to interfere in Thailand’s internal politics but if Chuan feels he can balance the IMF’s programs with some programs that will be popular for the people, Chuan could try appealing to the IMF.

25th November 1999:
The President met with the top brass of the Royal Thai Armed Forces led by Supreme Commander Mongkon Amphornpisit. He spent time inspecting units and greeting the officers.

The final event in Try’s itinerary in Bangkok was a State Dinner hosted by King Bhumipol Adulyadej. Bhumipol toasted Try and said that the latter was a “Friend of Thailand”.

There was news from Berlin that night. Schroeder announced that Germany will be nominating Caio Koch-Weser, a bureaucrat from the German Ministry of Finance with World Bank experience, as the next IMF Managing Director.

26th November 1999:
The President had breakfast with Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Edi Sudrajat to talk about Germany’s nomination of Weser. Ginandjar’s advice was that Try should welcome Schroeder’s announcement but that he should also wait for what Japan is going to do. Edi added that the President might want to consider ASEAN’s response as well because the ASEAN Informal Summit is up next.

The Presidential aircraft arrived just after lunch in Manila. Try was welcomed by Vice President Gloria Maccapagal-Arroyo and Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo Siazon Jr. President Joseph Estrada was, in their words, “preoccupied with matters of state”.

In East Java, Abdurrahman Wahid was elected for a fourth term as Chairman of NU. In his inaugural address, Wahid said that NU even though in coalition with the government, will not become a political party. Even so, Wahid said that NU is open for all those who wishes to use the talents of its members in the political field.

27th November 1999:
The bulk of the day was eaten up by the plenary session attended by all 10 of the ASEAN Heads of State and Government. Some of the matters discussed at the meeting were as follows:

*On the economic situation in Southeast Asia: All agreed that 1999 was a year of “turning the corner” and beginning to head in the direction of recovery though for most it will still be a struggle. 2000 will be a big year for Southeast Asia as far as recovery was concerned. All agreed that facilitating and stimulating economic activity in their respective countries was what will be best for ASEAN.

*On the IMF Managing Director’s resignation: An overall consensus emerged that the new IMF Managing Director must be friendly towards Southeast Asia and the needs of its nation. Prime Minister of Malaysia Abdullah Ahmad Badawi pointed out that Thailand was in a tough spot precisely because it strictly obeyed IMF’s guidelines and that they should vote for whoever’s against the IMF orthodoxy.

Estrada explained that in all likeliness, Stanley Fischer will put his hat in the ring and that he will be Washington’s favored candidate. Chuan spoke of Koch-Weser’s candidacy. Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong said they might also want to consider how Japan is reacting to this.

“One thing’s for certain…” began Try who to his shock saw all the leaders turn in his direction to listen intently “We’re a bloc of 10 nations. Whatever decision we make, we should make it together, and put it into action together.”

28th November 1999:
Try had breakfast with Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and Minister of Foreign Affairs Yohei Kono. Ginandjar accompanied Try both as Indonesia’s minister of foreign affairs but also as an interpreter because he was able to speak Japanese. Obuchi said that he is aware that Germany has put forward a candidate and has asked or Indonesia’s support. Obuchi said that Japan is intending to put forward a candidate for the IMF Managing Director’s position.

“I think, Prime Minister Obuchi”, said Try “That Indonesia’s stance will be to wait and see how the situation develops. We don’t want to rush to any decision.”

“President Kim of South Korea and President Jiang of China have said they want to support our candidate”, countered Obuchi.

“You’ll hear the same stance in the plenary session”, said Try.

Today was the ASEAN+3 portion of the informal summit. Meaning that in addition to the 10 ASEAN Countries, Japan, South Korea, and China would also be attending. Kim Dae Jung attended on behalf of South Korea and Zhu Rongji on behalf of China. Obuchi made the same appeal again to the meeting. After Goh and Chuan began responding on behalf of the 10 ASEAN Countries, Try began repeating the answer he privately made to Obuchi.

“So Indonesia is rejecting Prime Minister Obuchi’s proposal?” challenged Zhu.

“Not rejecting, merely needing more time to see how things will play out”, said Try with a smile.

“Is this ASEAN’s position?” asked Zhu before realizing that there was no one from ASEAN who wished to speak against Indonesia.

After the meeting broke up without a clear agreement, Try and Edi sat down to discuss what just happened in the former’s room.

“What’s your strategy, Mr. President? What are you trying to achieve out of not commiting to Germany or Japan’s candidate?” asked Edi.

“Leverage and the best position to bargain”, replied Try “Our economy’s starting ride along well and we’ve still got all the increased economic activitiy around Ramadan and Christmas to go through. We get a good result next month…we get a good result from our economic performance for the entire year and we can have ourselves some form of leverage.”

“To negotiate with Camdessus?” asked Edi.

“To negotiate with everyone; Camdessus, IMF, the United States, ASEAN, you name it”, said Try.

29th November 1999:
After 9 days of travel, the President at last touched down on Indonesian soil at Ujung Pandang with Governor of South Sulawesi Zainal Basri Palaguna and Commander of the Sulawesi Regional Military Command Cornel Simbolon welcoming him. Looking a bit tired, Try inaugurated the Ratu Indah Mall where he encouraged shoppers to crowd the shopping center in the upcoming weeks. After that, Try inaugurated the Ujung Pandang Toll Road. After that Try headed back to Jakarta for a special event.

The special event was held at Cendana Street; attended by the entire cabinet and hosted by Tutut Soeharto. The Jakarta political elite, prominent members of the business world, and some members of the diplomatic corps attended. The event was the book launch of Soeharto: The Final Years, a biography of Soeharto’s final years leading up to his death by former Vice Chairman of DPR Abdul Gafur. Abdul Gafur himself was all smiles as he read his speech which included the thesis he would like to advance with the book.

“The main idea that I would like to put forward in the book is this: that in the event of Indonesia’s recovery from this economic and financial crisis, and I strongly believe that Indonesia will recover under the leadership of President Try Sutrisno, the foundations for such a recovery was put in place by President Soeharto through his policies in the final years and indeed, final months before his death”, argued Gafur.

Try kept a poker face, an enigmatic Soeharto-esque smile appearing on his face. Sumarlin and most of the ministers also kept a poker face though there were more than a few shocked expression and angry glares from the ministers when Gafur outlined his thesis. Try was the first to be given a copy of the book at the culmination of the event.

The President was exhausted. So much so that he fell asleep within seconds of his head touching the headrest of the Presidential Car. By the time Try got back to the Presidential Palace that night, the First Lady told Edi Sudrajat in a tone that would tolerate no argument that her husband will take the day off tomorrow.

“Please indulge him, Mr. State Secretary”, the First Lady asked “Consider it your present for the 2nd anniversary of his assumption of the presidency.”

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Just for a variety, an update where Try's out of the country for most of the update and once again the maneuvering to fill the soon-to-be-vacant IMF Managing Director's position continues.

Though Try is keeping the update that the crisis is coming to an end soon for Indonesia to himself, all the other countries attending ITTL 1999 ASEAN Informal Summit are very aware through their intelligence and whatnot that of all the Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia will be the first to get out of the crisis. Hence why they are giving Indonesia's (read: Try's) opinion more weight.
 
Imagine Ahok-Sandi pair running for governorship. They're both relatively young for that position and might be able to bring more changes as demographics turned to young voters.

They would be a style’s clash for sure. But it’s interesting that one works for a mining company in Canada while the other is a mining engineer wanting to move to Canada during this period in time. They’re natural allies ITTL though not in the political sense.

I’m sure I’ll get to some of the others like Anies, Ridwan Kamil, etc. Jokowi has made a cameo.

My own opinion about the 30 September movement is this: Soeharto wasn't behind the 30 September movement (or orchestrated it) but, like Stalin after Kirov's death (IMO, Stalin wasn't behind Kirov's murder; he did use it as an excuse to launch his own purges, though), used their actions to increase his own power, IMO...

I don’t disagree that the failed 30th September Movement meant there was a reason to move against the PKI.

I think any Army general who found themselves in command of the Army in October 1965, not just Soeharto, would have moved against the PKI. The Army’s anti-communism is pretty ingrained institutionally.
 
To be fair, a lot of generals probably would have moved against the PKI, @GSD310; it doesn't excuse what Soeharto did in Timor or some of the other atrocities committed under his regime, though...
 
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“Well these first few days, weeks, maybe even months will be spent studying up on the world. I'm not a diplomat by trade so there’s a lot to read up on. From what I can gather already, there’s a lot going on.”- Ginandjar Kartasasmita, first press conference as Minister of Foreign Affairs 20th April 1999

———
Next update will be about the international situation that Try has found himself in. I did the example of what’s happening in a few of the nations a while back, but we’ll be looking at some more examples. A good chance this will be a multi-parter. Call it a consequence of spending too much time on Wikipedia and alternatehistory.com before going on holidays in Bali.

Bumped into Titiek Soeharto who, as it turns out, is staying at the same hotel my family’s staying in. Though I’m sure her room is a suite.
 
The World Circa November 1999 (Southeast Asia and Oceania)
The World Circa November 1999 (Southeast Asia and Oceania)

Southeast Asia:
Malaysia:

July 1999 saw Malaysia hold its elections. The Barisan Nasional Coalition, which included the governing UMNO Party, was returned with a reduced majority. Its seats were reduced from 162 seats to 134 while the Barisan Alternatif, which included Anwar Ibrahim’s PKR Party increased its seats from 30 seats to 58 seats. Anwar himself ran for election as part of the PKR and was elected as Leader of the Opposition. Mahathir Mohammad’s political career came to an end as he did not renominate for his seat in parliament.

Though UMNO had a reduced majority, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s was seen to have made the right decision. The consensus being that holding the elections later meant that UMNO and Barisan Nasional run the risk of losing more popularity and thus more seats.

As the days and months passed, Badawi’s strategy of pursuing a middle path between Mahathir Mohammad and Anwar Ibrahim’s paths began to pay off and the economy is set to grow positively again in 1999. There was talk after the election victory of asking aid from the IMF. However, Minister of Trade and Industry Najib Razak said that it would do “national pride” good if Malaysia can recover from the crisis without IMF aid.

Singapore:
Diplomatic relationship between Indonesia and Singapore is warm. In October 1999, Minister for Trade and Industry George Yeo, Minister for Manpower Lee Boon Yang, and signed an agreement with Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Manpower Fahmi Idris, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu. The agreement will see Singapore invest into Indonesia’s food and beverages industry and tap into Indonesia’s larger market in exchange for increasing intake of Indonesia’s overseas workforce.

Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong is known to keep in regular contact with Try Sutrisno and discuss various matters over the phone. Try and Goh had gotten along so well because they see themselves in each other; both being moderate successors to strong leaders in Soeharto and Lee Kuan Yew.

Philippines:
Beset by the Asian Financial Crisis as all of its neighbors are, the 1998 Philippines General Election held in May produced Joseph Estrada from the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino and Gloria Maccapagal-Arroyo from Lakas as president and vice president respectively. Both Estrada and Maccapagal-Arroyo won handily against their rivals and took office on 30th June 1998.

The Philippines also received aid from the IMF though reluctant to ask for leniency as Indonesia had done for fear of getting “on the wrong side” of the United States, with whom the Philippines had close relations.

Relations with Malaysia under Estrada had become strained by mid-1999 due to Estrada expressing his support for Anwar Ibrahim in Malaysia’s 1999 elections.

Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo had closely followed Philippines’ internal developments most notably the government’s conflict with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) as well as the movements of Abu Sayyaf, two separatist and fundamentalists groups. Vice President JB Sumarlin had visited the Philippines in August with a message from Try saying that Indonesia will support the Philippines if it cracks down on MILF and/or Abu Sayyaf but said that it will not be a good look if the Philippines strikes the first blow because it could be seen as oppression of an Islamic minority in a predominantly Catholic nation.

Thailand:
Though widely regarded as the IMF’s “golden boy” in Southeast Asia for its strict adherence to the IMF’s prescriptions, Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai was suffering politically. Opposition Leader Thaksin Shinawatra gained a following and popularity by claiming that Chuan was selling the nation to foreigners and promising populist policies were he to come to power. In November 1999, after President Try’s visit to Bangkok, Chuan began to appeal for leniency from the IMF in terms of the conditions that Thailand had to observe to continue receiving aid. Time was ticking for Chuan, an election was due in Thailand before the end of 2000.

Economic ties between Indonesia and Thailand were boosted in 1998 when the State Railway of Thailand ordered 70 wagons from Indonesia’s PT INKA, the state-owned rail carriage making enterprise managed by the BPIS.

Try’s close relationship with Chuan was mirrored by the close ties between Thaksin Shinawatra and Tutut Soeharto. After she had become Chairwoman of Golkar, both Thaksin and Tutut had exchanged visits with one another.

Brunei:
Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah was close to Soeharto and had developed close ties with him both personal and commercial through ventures with the latter’s children. Bolkiah respected that Try was now in charge but could never put aside his ties with Soeharto’s family. Try also treated Bolkiah with respect though his 4 Horsemen cautioned him that Bolkiah was not to be trusted.

Vietnam:
Vietnam’s succession plan was well underway by the time Try had succeeded to the presidency. In December 1997, General Secretary Do Muoi resigned and made way for Le Kha Phieu. Le Kha Phieu was immediately thrust into the role of guiding Vietnam through the Asian Financial Crisis though Vietnam was spared the worst of the crisis.

Le Kha Phieu pursued a relationship with China that was far closer than previous general secretaries. In fact it was too close for comfort for Do Muoi. The former general secretary had seen Try at the 1998 ASEAN Summit in Hanoi and had been impressed. “Traditionally we have a good relationship with Indonesia, why has this not been continued?” asked Do Muoi. Le Kha Phieu said that Indonesia was struggling through the Asian Financial Crisis while China was not.

By the end 1999, Le Kha Phieu had concluded a guideline for Sino-Vietnam relationship and was concluding a land border treaty agreement. However with Indonesia’s improving economic condition, Le Kha Phieu was pressured by the Politburo to make Indonesia a priority in the year 2000.

Head of Bulog I Gede Awet Sara visited Vietnam in September 1998 and August 1999 to secure rice imports for Indonesia. Both times he was received by Premier Phan Van Kai.

Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar:
Laos, under the leadership of General Secretary of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party/President Khamtai Siphandone, traditionally pursued a foreign policy that kept them non-aligned in China and Vietnam’s struggle for influence. Laos’ present concern was that Vietnam was drifting closer to China. With Thailand being Laos’ primary foreign investor, Laos needed another power in their equation to ensure that their landlocked country does not depend too much on one power.

An election in July 1998, confirmed to the nation and the world what had been reality for a year since Prime Minister Hun Sen ousted his co-prime minister Norodom Ranaridhh in a coup: that Hun Sen was the most powerful man in Cambodia. The world condemned the way Hun Sen seized power but China was among the first to congratulate Cambodia ensuring that Beijing continued to remain a welcome force in Phnom Penh. In May 1999, Cambodia became the 10th member of ASEAN.

The relationship between Myanmar and Indonesia was complicated on Try’s assumption of the presidency. On the one hand, Chairman of the State Law and Order Restoration Council Than Shwe welcomed the rise of a fellow general to the Indonesian presidency. On the other hand, the Myanmar regime retained commercial links in the form of business investments by the Soeharto children. Former Leader of Myanmar Ne Win was close to Soeharto and had even visited the latter weeks before he died. Isolated as it was, Myanmar weathered the Asian Financial Crisis by receiving aid from China.

Upon assuming office in April 1999, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita identified Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar as three countries which the Try could do well to cultivate if he wanted to check China’s influence in Southeast Asia. Ginandjar had organized an Indonesian cultural tour and then a business delegation led by Chairman of KADIN Aburizal Bakrie to visit the three countries though a visit by the President was still forthcoming.


Oceania:
Papua New Guinea:

As Indonesia bedded down the Singapore Settlement in June 1999, Papua New Guinea struggled with political instability. By the time the instability was reaching its peak in July 1999, Indonesia had moved on to reorganizing ABRI. The sight of Indonesia furthering its consolidation of East Timor and reorganizing its armed forces made the specter of expansionism seemed real; it moved sentiments enough in Oceania that Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Downer to call Ginandjar and ask him for assurances that Indonesia would not intervene. Ginandjar gave the assurances.

The crisis brought an end to Prime Minister Bill Skate’s time as prime minister and marked the beginning of Mekere Morauta’s. During Morauta’s visit in November 1999, Try said that he was only interested in stability to Indonesia’s east and had no territorial ambitions.

Pacific Island Nations:
Nations grouped under this category tended to sympathize with the Free Papua Movement (OPM) due to having a Melanesian ethnicity as the natives of Irian Jaya. During Papua New Guinea’s political crisis, they were the most alarmed that Indonesia might use the opportunity to expand into Papua New Guinea. It was Prime Minister Donald Kalpokas of Vanuatu, a nation which had provided sanctuary for OPM rebels, who convinced the Australian government to call Indonesia asking for assurances that they will stay out of PNG.

Australia:
The Australian Government contemplated its role in the Singapore Settlement which saw the UN and Portugal agree that East Timor would remain as part of Indonesia as a Special Administrative Region. Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Downer felt guilty enough that he lost all desire to speak up on Indonesia’s behalf. Meanwhile Prime Minister John Howard felt that whatever political capital his government had left should be spent on “Worthwhile domestic issues” rather than Indonesia given that he had less than a year until he was due to hand over in 2000. Howard endorsed the Singapore Settlement but would turn inwards.

It fell to Treasurer and Prime Minister-in-waiting Peter Costello to become Indonesia’s advocate in the Australian government. Costello saw that he could not avoid dealing with Indonesia when the time came for him to become prime minister. As of November 1999, he is waiting for an opportunity to intervene on Indonesia’s behalf in its deteriorating relationship with the IMF.

In the Australian Parliament, Opposition Leader Kim Beazley gave the Singapore Settlement bipartisan support. This prompted Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Laurie Brereton to resign from his position and the Labor Party to become an independent in the Australian House of Representatives for what he saw as Australia’s “selling the people of East Timor down the river”.

New Zealand:
Indonesia made a cameo into New Zealand’s election campaign, which was called for 27th November 1999. Opposition Leader Helen Clark of the Labor Party said that if elected, she will use New Zealand’s status as a member of the CGI to ensure that aid will be tied to the condition that human rights be improved in East Timor and Irian Jaya. Incumbent Prime Minister Jenny Shipley did not made the same commitment.

There were other issues that the New Zealand electorate considered but at the end of the day, it was Prime Minister Helen Clark that was elected prime minister and she intends to make good on her election promise.

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Essentially I’m operating on the basis of Indonesia’s crisis not being as bad as in OTL and Indonesia being on the road to recovery at a faster rate than in OTL for it to be considered in the calculations of the nations in Southeast Asia and Oceania. No Indonesia as the “sick man” of Southeast Asia ITTL though the end goal here is not a superpower either.

The next 2 updates will cover nations in other parts of the world. Essentially by the end of these updates, we have a rough idea of where everything is on the international scene ITTL. I guess there’s no avoiding those flapping butterfly wings not only in Indonesia but also outside of it.

Up next: Northeast Asia, South Asia, The Middle East, Europe, and Russia
 
The next few updates will be an overview of how certain countries are doing and/or how Indonesia are approaching them over the last two ITTL years.

Next few updates:
-Northeast Asia, South and Central Asia, and the Middle East

-Europe, Russia, and Africa

-South America, Central America, and North America

Then we’ll go back to the happenings in Indonesia again.

Foreign affairs has been somewhat ignored in this TL as most of the focus has been on solving the economic crisis and the domestic politics of Indonesia. I’ll try to give more regular updates rather than let things pile up.

I’m not going to highlight every single country as that’ll be too much though I’ll focus on the “main countries” or countries that are may be relevant to Indonesia.

There will be countries that will go on as in OTL, countries which will feel the full effect of the flapping butterfly wings, and there’ll be countries who will be a mixture of OTL and getting some butterflies. One thing’s for sure this thread is going international.
 
The World Circa November 1999 (Northeast Asia, South and Central Asia, Middle East)
The World Circa November 1999 (Northeast Asia, South and Central Asia, The Middle East)
Northeast Asia:
China:

General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Jiang Zemin was two months into his third term as General Secretary when the word arrived that Soeharto had died of stroke. For China, the initial concern and worry during the first few months after Soeharto’s death and indeed as the Asian Financial Crisis began to take effect in Indonesia was that there will be social unrest and Chinese-Indonesians ran a high risk of being targeted. Jiang had to give Try full credit. There was no social unrest and as the Chinese Government’s Overseas Chinese Office reported, the Chinese-Indonesians were never in any danger.

Jiang wanted to hit the right note with Indonesia and to attract Indonesia into a closer relationship the way he was attracting Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar. In June 1999, he was the first to warmly congratulate Try over the phone for “settling once and for all” the matter of East Timor though he continued to wonder what Try would mean to Indonesia’s relationship with China and for China’s overall interests. For his part, Try maintained that Indonesia will continue its One China Policy.

China’s economy slowed down as a result of the Asian Financial Crisis though they would be spared the worst effects of it.

Politically, China held the 1998 National People’s Congress which distributed the nation’s top offices to members of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee. Jiang was elected to a second term as president; Li Peng was elected Chairman of the National People’s Congress; Zhu Rongji was elected premier; Li Ruihuan was elected Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference; and Hu Jintao was elected vice president.

The question now was how would succession occur in the CCP, if indeed it would indeed occur. As president, Jiang was now term-limited but as general secretary, as Jiang himself would point out, he was not subject to term limits.

The would-be successor if all went to plan was Hu. Jiang had given him the chance to be the first state official to address the nation after NATO accidentally bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in May 1999 to build his exposure domestically and internationally. At the same time though, Hu had not been appointed as Jiang’s second at the Central Military Commission (CMC), the position through which Jiang exercises control of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as had been originally envisioned.

Hong Kong:
Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa had managed to guide Hong Kong through the Asian Financial Crisis even if it did reduce the former British colonial dependency to low economic growth. They had not cut their intake of Indonesian migrant workers for which Try thanked Tung when he visited Hong Kong in August 1999.

Taiwan:
While officially continuing the One China Policy, Indonesia continued to maintain informal links with Taiwan through the continuing of Economic and Trade Offices by the two countries. As a gesture of goodwill , Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar visited Taipei in June 1998 though he did so in a private capacity so that Indonesia would not draw Beijing’s ire. Agum, who at one time was stationed as Deputy Head of Indonesia’s Economic and Trade Offices in Taipei, was welcomed warmly by President Lee Teng Hui.

Succession was also nigh in Taiwan with a Presidential Election scheduled for March 2000. Lee Teng Hui was term-limited and could not run. Thus, in November 1999, the ruling Kuomintang Party which Lee led began looking for a candidate no nominate. Jiang’s rant against Japan (see below) and Hu’s address on the occasion of NATO’s accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade provided much food for thought about the Mainland’s increasingly overt and possibly aggressive nationalism.

South Korea and North Korea:
Much as Try, President Kim Dae Jung was thrust into the leadership of his nation at a time of crisis when he was elected President of South Korea in December 1997. By mid-1999, South Korea was widely heralded as the nation which will be first out of the Asian Financial Crisis. By mid-1999 Indonesia was increasingly mentioned as the nation which will be second out of the Asian Financial Crisis. Try disliked this out of fear that Indonesia will become complacent.

When North Korea launched the Taepodong Missile over Japan in September 1998, the then Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas condemned the launch.

Japan:
The first foreign leader to phone Try after his assumption of the presidency was Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto. Hashimoto became a strong supporter of Indonesia’s effort to get leniency from the IMF. Try remembered the gestures enough to feel sympathy for Hashimoto when Japan got caught up in its own currency crisis and an Upper House Election where a decline in seats for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party forced Hashimoto to resign.

Hashimoto’s replacement was Keizo Obuchi who was previously minister of foreign affairs. Obuchi is a strong supporter of Indonesia’s economic recovery encouraging Japanese companies to move ahead with their investments in Indonesia when it became apparent that Indonesia had managed to minimize the damage of the crisis.

Obuchi’s tendency towards supporting Indonesia’s and ASEAN’s economic recovery more broadly was in no small part to Jiang Zemin’s disastrous visit to Japan in November 1998. China wanted to use the opportunity to ask Japan for an apology for its war crimes in China during World War II, Japan refused to give it or at least agree on a wording, and Jiang ended up lecturing Obuchi on Japan’s crimes in the past.

Upon Camdessus’ resignation as IMF Managing Director in November 1999, Obuchi threw his support behind Eisuke Sakakibara for the IMF Managing Director’s position. He hoped that ASEAN, starting with Indonesia, would throw their support behind the nomination knowing full well that Camdessus was running out of patience with Indonesia.

During the April 1999 Cabinet Reshuffle which saw Ginandjar Kartasasmita emerge as minister of foreign affairs, Japan was most enthusiastic. Ginandjar being a Japanese speaker and a chemical engineering graduate from Japan.

South and Central Asia:
India and Pakistan:

Try’s basic stance in foreign policy was that he wanted stability in the international sphere so that nations such as Indonesia can have a peaceful environment to develop its economy. The first inkling of this came to the fore when India conducted nuclear tests and declared itself a nuclear state in May 1998. When he met with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the G-15 Summit in Egypt the same month, Try let his displeasure known. Later that month when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif conducted nuclear tests and declared that Pakistan had also gone nuclear, Try also issued a statement condemning this.

Despite these condemnations, Indonesia has stated that as a fellow developing nation, it was not in favor of imposing sanctions on India and Pakistan as some of the Western nations had done.

By the time of the Kargil War in mid-1999, however, Ginandjar had been able to convince Try that a strong India was in Indonesia’s interest given that it could provide competition and distraction for China. This and the fact that India was the aggrieved party caused Try to line up behind the international community in its support for India. When Vajpayee and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were re-elected in October 1999 on the back of his Kargil War victory, Try was generous in his congratulation of Vajpayee and invited him to come to Indonesia.

After the Kargil War, relations between Sharif and Pakistan Chief of Army Staff Pervez Musharraf deteriorated. So much so that when Sharif tried to dismiss Musharraf when the latter was out of the country, Musharraf returned and with the help of the Pakistani Army overthrew the Prime Minister in a coup in October 1999. As Musharraf consolidated power in his new capacity as Chief Executive of Pakistan, Try wondered how to engage this nation.

As Chairwoman of Golkar, Tutut had visited President of the Indian National Congress and India’s Opposition Leader Sonia Gandhi in 1998. Sonia Gandhi had risen to take control of the Indian National Congress and her position had only strengthened. In early 1999, Tutut also managed to visit Pakistan’s Opposition Leader and Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the latter living in exile in London. Bhutto would go on to be convicted of corruption in absentia by a Pakistani court and be relieved of her position as a member of the Pakistani Parliament but that has not dampened Tutut’s admiration. Sonia Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto’s are figure Tutut looked to emulate.

Rest of South Asia:
In March 1999, Vice President JB Sumarlin attended the D-8 Summit in Bangladesh on Try’s behalf. Sumarlin led a delegation which included Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti to discuss trade opportunities and Head of BKKBN Nafsiah Mboi to discuss cooperation in family planning efforts. Sumarlin met with Prime Minister Hasina Wazed and expressed encouragement at her quest to open the Bangladeshi economy.

As part of the trip to Bangladesh, Sumarlin also stopped by Sri Lanka. He met with President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike as well as address a meeting of the Sri Lanka-Indonesia business council.

Central Asia:
“We’ve established diplomatic relations with the former Soviet Republics in Central Asia upon the disbandment of the USSR and President Soeharto conducted visits there in 1995 with investments on Indonesia’s part in Kazakhstan. That should leave room for President Try to build on relations and cooperation with the other Central Asian nations beyond Kazakhstan.”- Briefing Book from Outgoing Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas to Incoming Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita.

Afghanistan:
“Right now that place is a mess. I think it’s clear that if this nation is harboring terrorists and if its government is considered by some in the world to be terrorists that we should keep a watch on those coming into Indonesia from Afghanistan and those coming into Indonesia from elsewhere but have also recently been in Afghanistan”- Try to Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo August 1998.

Middle East:
Saudi Arabia:

Try resumed the warm relations inherited from Soeharto when it came to Saudi Arabia. Try would say that Indonesia owed Saudi Arabia for taking in Indonesian migrant workers and lightening the load of unemployment back home as a result of the Asian Financial Crisis. In exchange, Try ordered that the cooperation between both countries’ state-owned petroleum companies, which will manifest as an oil refinery in Irian Jaya, be facilitated as directly as possible without Indonesian “middlemen” being involved and asking for “commissions”.

“You can never tell how people will turn out, I remembered your face because you were part of President Soeharto’s group when he undertook the Hajj in 1991”, said King Fahd during Try’s State Visit “You were a random face then and now we’re both Heads of State”.

Gulf States:
“Right now nations like the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar are important for Indonesia. Our workers in the construction sector or the informal sector have tended to find employment there throughout this economic crisis and we’ve facilitated that. At the same time, these nations are oil-rich and they’ve got money lying around and we want them to invest in our infrastructure, now that we have a public-private partnership system for infrastructure in place”- Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono during the Department of Economics and National Development National Conference in April 1999.

Iraq:
Indonesia was cautious when the Clinton Administration decided to launch Operation Desert Fox in December 1998; issuing a statement calling for Iraq to cooperate with the UN’s weapons’ inspectors but deploring Clinton’s use of force.

Iran:
Iran had the distinction of being the first foreign nation to be visited by Try as president when the nation hosted the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Summit at Tehran in December 1997. It was not a good summit for Try. While President Khatami, spoke about his vision of a “Dialogue of Civilizations” where civilizations engage each other constructively instead of clashing with each other, Try was busy reading reports about Indonesia’s currency from home. Were it not for the handling of the then-Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas and Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Kharazzi, there would have been a misunderstanding and offended feelings on the part of Iran.

Khatami’s Dialogue of Civilizations concept was not without its appeal. Ali Alatas wrote in his briefing book to Ginandjar Kartasasmita in April 1999 prior to handing over as minister of foreign affairs that it was something worth responding to. In September 1999, one of the first things State Minister of National Security Affairs Soerjadi wrote about was that improved ties with Iran could strengthen Khatami’s hand domestically, Khatami representing the moderate wing in Iranian politics, and enhance Indonesia’s reputation in the Islamic world.

Jordan:
Much as Brunei, this was a relationship under close watch by the President’s inner circle. As it turned out, King Abdullah II who succeeded to the throne of Jordan in February 1999 was an old classmate of Governor of Central Java Prabowo Subianto when the latter was receiving military education overseas. Nevertheless, this suspicion had to be concealed for Jordan was a voice of moderation in the Middle East. Try sent Vice President JB Sumarlin to attend Abdullah’s coronation in June 1999.

Syria and Lebanon:
Try continued the government’s stance of supporting Syria on its claim over the Golan Heights and Lebanon on the issue of Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon.

Israel:
“…The State Secretary was in the President’s office for some time. Certainly a lot longer than the time required to tell the President that Ehud Barak had led his coalition to victory and will therefore succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

When he got out, he dropped by my office, sat down on the other side of the table, and chuckled.

“Well, when I write my memoirs I’m going to say that I got my ass chewed out by two different presidents for suggesting that Indonesia can open diplomatic relations with Israel”, said Pak Edi."- At The Center of Decision-Making: A Memoir by Deputy State Secretary Soedibyo Rahardjo

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Going around Wikipedia and reading newspaper websites for the information was the interesting part. The tricky part about writing this was the fact that this is the OTL world merging into the ITTL world.

One thing I found in doing this research was how much Indonesia "disappeared" in foreign affairs as a result of the Asian Financial Crisis. You had the Kargil War which was essentially India and Pakistan getting involved in a minor war and I haven't found a statement or a stance by Indonesia on the issue when googling it. East Timor was as foreign affairs as Indonesia got during this 1997-1999 period.

Edi Sudrajat thinking that Indonesia should establish diplomatic relations with Israel can be found here: https://books.google.co.id/books?id=u3h4fpt4f7QC&pg=PA87&dq=edi+sudrajat+israel&hl=id&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjRq-X88oDjAhVJQ48KHTbhDhUQ6AEINDAB#v=onepage&q=edi sudrajat israel&f=false
 
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The World Circa November 1999 (Europe and Africa)
The World Circa November 1999 (Europe and Africa)
Europe:
Germany:

Gerhard Schroeder of the Social-Democratic Party (SPD) overcame Helmut Kohl of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and forged a coalition with the Greens in Germany’s 1998 Elections to become Chancellor of Germany. Schroeder, now in charge of the world’s third largest economy, wanted Germany to adopt an assertive foreign policy and argued that Germany should pursue its interests as a great power.

President Try Sutrisno’s visit to Germany in November 1999 was originally envisioned by Schroeder as a way for Germany to project its influence in Southeast Asia through cooperation with Indonesia vocational education. That there was someone to help facilitate things in BJ Habibie was to Germany’s luck. But news of Michel Camdessus’ resignation added to the importance of the visit. Schroeder wanted to nominate a German to succeed to Camdessus’ position at the IMF and Indonesia could help to achieve that goal. He had heard of Indonesia’s deteriorating relationship with the IMF over the latter’s desire to control what reforms Indonesia undertook and wanted to portray himself as a friend of Indonesia. Perhaps if he could sway Indonesia, he could get ASEAN’s support for a German candidate for the IMF Managing Director’s position.

France:
President Jacques Chirac congratulated Try on the phone Singapore Settlement and said that this will make Indonesia a stronger nation for itself and a strong partner for France. Chirac is also appreciative of Indonesia as a stable environment for French companies to make their investment.

Such sentiments were not shared by Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. Jospin who led the majority Socialist Party in France’s National Assembly was of a different party than Chirac and had a different attitude. In between Consultative Group of Indonesia (CGI) meetings in Paris, Jospin hosted Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Minister of Economics and National Development Soedradjad Djiwandono. Jospin asked, with some hostility, that Indonesia declare that would no longer be interested in further territorial expansions especially in New Caledonia where France has an interest.

Ginandjar said that “Of course” Indonesia had no further territorial ambitions though privately he was insulted.

Spain:
Aside from Germany, which had the link of Habibie, Spain is probably the nation with the closest relationship with Indonesia in Western Europe. Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar underscored the importance of Indonesia through his visit in August 1999.

Italy:
Three years into the present parliamentary term (which began 1996), Italy had had two prime ministers in Romano Prodi and Massimo D’Alema though the ruling coalition remained similar. Thankfully, Lamberto Dini had remained minister of foreign affairs so there was some consistency in foreign policy.

Part of that foreign policy continuity between the Prodi and D’Alema Cabinet was the engagement of Iran. After Prodi (when he was prime minister) had visited Tehran and Khatami had visited Rome in 1998 and early 1999, Indonesian Vice President JB Sumarlin came to visit Italy in April 1999 on the way back from Washington. Sumarlin met with D’Alema and Dini and one of the issues that came up was Iran. Dini said that it would be good to have a major country from the Islamic world engage with Iran.

After the matter of East Timor was settled, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Minister of Religious Affairs Quraish Shihab made the trip to Tehran with Dini accompanying them. Ginandjar and Quraish met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Khatami. The talks were positive. Khatami was very overjoyed.

In September 1999, a trade delegation led by Minister of Foreign Trade Piero Fassino arrived in Jakarta to explore for opportunities of Italian investment.

Portugal:
That East Timor’s status as part of Indonesia would no longer be questioned by the international community in exchange for it becoming a Special Administrative Region had an impact as far away as Lisbon. When the UN Security Council ratified the settlement in July, the Socialist Party Government led by Prime Minister Antonio Gutteres began to take a plunge in the polls.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Jaime Gama offered to resign and there were talks that President Jorge Sampaio, who had advocated East Timorese independence, was also considering resignation. It was ultimately Gutteres who resigned, not wanting his “failure” to stain the Socialist Party’s march to re-election. Antonio De Sousa Franco, who was Minister of Finance, was elected leader of the Socialist Party and new Prime Minister of Portugal by the end of July.

Portugal held its elections on 10th October 1999. Franco campaigned on the notion that he would not give Indonesia diplomatic recognition if re-elected. Opposition Leader Jose Manuel Barosso from the Social Democratic Party would not commit to the same promise, much to the chagrin of his party.

In the end, voters showed their approval of the good economic conditions in Portugal but showed their disapproval that the government had failed on East Timor by producing a divided parliament. The results being as follows:
Socialist Party (Incumbent): 98 (Down from 112)
Social Democratic Party: 90 (Up from 88)
Unitary Democratic Coalition: 22 (Up from 15)
People’s Party: 18 (Up from 15)
Left Bloc: 2

After some negotiations, in early November 1999, it was finally agreed that the Central Bloc Coalition between the Socialist and Social Democratic Party would be re-established. Franco would be prime minister with Barosso as deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs. While the two parties got consensus on various other issues, they could only agree on “trying to figure things out as they come along” as regards Portugal’s stance towards Indonesia.

Netherlands and Sweden:
Prime Minister Wim Kok issued a harsh statement that the Singapore Settlement was a settlement that was agreed to while the world was “looking elsewhere”. There were “Boycott Bali” demonstrations in Amsterdam though this scarcely put a dent. The Dutch, being a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, abstained when voting was held on the matter of the Singapore Settlement. Try recalled the Indonesian Ambassador to the Netherlands but took no further actions because “After all, we still want their tourists and investments so we’ll just let them have their say.”

Pro-East Timor Independence demonstrators demonstrated outside Nobel Foundation Headquarters in Stockholm calling for the foundation to revoke Bishop Carlos Belo’s Nobel Peace Prize. The Nobel Foundation said that according to its rules it cannot revoke Noble Peace Prizes given out.

Elsewhere, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Anna Lindh held a press conference about the Swedish Government’s stance about East Timor but ended up being asked about members of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) living in Sweden. Lindh said since they’re Swedish citizens, they’re under the Swedish Government’s protection.

Western Europe:
“If you were in my position, would you ever be satisfied with“We were too busy bombing Yugoslavia and preparing peacekeeping forces in Kosovo” as the explanation as to why nobody cared? Some of these Western European nations give aid to Indonesia. Couldn’t they try to apply pressure?”- Chairman of the Timor Leste Government In Exile Jose Ramos Horta in August 1999.

Turkey:
The six principles of Kemalism espoused by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk as well as the secularist stance of its constitution attracted the ideological interest of Chairman of BP7 Soegiarto. In May 1999, Soegiarto led a delegation of BP7 officials to Ankara for a visit where he visited Ataturk’s tomb. He also met Prime Minister Bulent Acavit where he conveyed Try’s greetings and discussed with community leaders about Kemalism and its effects in Turkey.

Soegiarto was most interested to hear about the case of Mayor of Istanbul Tayip Erdogan. A politician of Islamist leanings, Erdogan had been dismissed from office and sentenced to a 10-month jail term for “inciting hatred” with a series of Islamist lyrics. Soegiarto nodded in agreement when hearing that Erdogan had been banned from participating from politics but felt that Erdogan should have been in prison for good rather than released after 4 months. Soegiarto also learned about how Turkey had banned political parties in the past for advocating Islamist leanings, most recently the Welfare Party in 1998, and how these Islamist parties would keep reproducing itself under different names.

As he flew back home Soegiarto felt that his visit to Turkey confirms that Try’s challenge in the ideological field will be to overcome Islamist tendencies that exists in Indonesia.

United Kingdom:
Foreign Secretary Robin Cook represented Tony Blair’s government at Soeharto’s funeral. The first real look that Blair and his government got at the Try government was when the UK hosted the 2nd Asian-Europe Meeting in April 1998. Blair and Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, whatever their political differences, agreed that the Indonesian delegation led by Ali Alatas and Soedradjad Djiwandono looked very determined to get out of the crisis.

In September 1999, the UK Government delivered 9 Hawk Jets to Indonesia as part of its purchase by the Indonesian Air Force. In the House of Commons, the Labour Government came under fire. Menzies Campbell of the Liberal Democrats enquired about the delivery of the jets to Indonesia in spite of its less than “stellar” human rights record and in spite of Cook’s promise for an “ethical” foreign policy. Cook retorted that the government was just delivering on contracts which was agreed to by the Major Government which preceded theirs.

This was a makeshift answer which satisfied no one as the follow up question was inevitably about whether or not the government, on its own accord rather than merely delivering on previously agreed contracts, would sell weapons to Indonesia. Cook said that Indonesia had not purchased more weapons since Tony Blair became prime minister seeing as it was going through a currency crisis.

The issue was not long in public eye before it drowned in other matters, most notably the Rugby World Cup in Cardiff, Wales. In November, while President Try was away on his visit to Germany and Thailand, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar welcomed Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon to Jakarta. Hoon said that the UK was committed to Indonesia’s territorial integrity and that there are no changes at present to the Blair Government’s defense policy.

Yugoslavia:
As they waited for President Try Sutrisno and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita to arrive and explain the Singapore Settlement on 17th June 1999, the Diplomatic Corps in Jakarta mingled with one another. One of them made a quip that was told and retold in Jakarta’s diplomatic grapevine:

“Indonesia owes Yugoslavia a large debt of gratitude. Why? Because Yugoslavia kept NATO distracted enough so that Indonesia could sneak in with its deal in East Timor.”

Russia:
The Asian Financial Crisis crossed continental lines as it arrived in Russia in 1998. Loss in value of the ruble and capital flight out of the country culminated in Russia defaulting on its debt on 17th August 1998. In response to these developments, President Boris Yeltsin appointed Yevgeny Primakov, hitherto Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, as Russia’s new prime minister.

Russia had already requested aid from the IMF in July 1998 but the aid was considered to be a failure after Russia defaulted on its debt. It was up to Primakov to deal with the IMF now.

It was not clear who made the Prime Minister took notice about how Indonesia was dealing with the IMF. The Indonesian Ambassador to Russia Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin had denied ever talking about anything more than generalities to Primakov and the Prime Minister himself never mentioned anything about Indonesia. But Camdessus thought there was something similar in the way Primakov committed himself strictly to some of the IMF prescriptions, asked for some leniency on others, and asked to implement policies relevant to Russia’s local situation on others. When, in October, the IMF called a temporary halt in negotiations, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi of Japan and US Treasury Secretary Rubin intervened on Primakov’s behalf.

An agreement favorable to Russia was signed with the IMF. By 1999, the economy was on track for recovery on the back of Primakov’s policies and improving oil prices. Inflation was brought under control and tax cuts, both income and VAT, were instituted.

Primakov was a credible figure; popular domestically and known to be tough internationally. In March 1999, he turned his airplane around at the knowledge that NATO had begun to bomb Yugoslavia. Increasingly, he is touted as a frontrunner for the presidency.

The political wind blew in Primakov’s favor. In March 1999, Yeltsin removed Boris Berezovsky, an associate and media magnate, who presently held office as Secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This removed an enemy from Yeltsin’s inner circle. In May 1999, Primakov gathered members of the Duma (The Russian Parliament) who were against Yeltsin’s presidency and dissuaded them from attempting to impeach the ailing President.

If Yeltsin still did not trust Primakov after the latter had persuaded hostile members of the Duma to abandon the idea of impeaching him, he at the very least had no cause to dismiss Primakov as he had been rumored to do in May 1999. Instead, to balance Primakov, Yeltsin appointed Vladimir Putin as Deputy Prime Minister in June 1999. Putin is a figure with whom Yeltsin and his inner circle felt comfortable with though he was deferential to Primakov given their shared KGB backgrounds from their USSR days. In the months after his appointment, it became clear that Putin’s main role was to be Primakov’s “good cop” in the eyes of those who were still not convinced that Primakov ought to be the next leader of Russia.

Africa:
Libya:

“I thank you for your congratulations. I look forward to bilateral relations between Indonesia and Libya though I must emphasize that such good relations will be conditional on your ceasing your support for the separatist Free Aceh Movement”- Excerpt from letter to Muammar Ghaddafi in response to his letter congratulating Try on his election by the 1998 MPR Session.

Nigeria:
Nigeria went through political transition. After Sani Abacha died in June 1998, Abdulsami Abubakar succeeded to the presidency. He held elections before handing over power to Olesegun Obasanjo in late May 1999. Try issued a statement congratulating the nation on the peaceful transition to power and promised to work for better ties with Nigeria in the future. In June 1999, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo led a delegation to explore investment and commercial opportunities in Indonesia. At present, the main investment Indonesia has in the most populous country in Africa takes the form of an Indomie factory established in 1995.

Former Portuguese Colonies in Africa:
Fretilin member Mari Alkatiri travelled and lobbied the governments of Portugal’s colonies in Africa to ensure that there was hostility towards the Singapore Settlement. Angola, Mozambique, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, and Sao Tome and Principe all condemned the Singapore Settlement. The Mozambican Government, whose ruling party Frelimo inspired the name Fretilin, even went as far as saying that Mozambique is open for the people of East Timor.

South Africa and Namibia:
When Try discussed East Timor with President Nelson Mandela on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement at Durban in September 1998, other members of his delegation was being welcomed by Deputy President Thabo Mbeki and realizing the potential benefits of closer ties between Indonesia and South Africa. Though forming his own views about Indonesia, Mbeki deferred to Mandela on South Africa’s relations with the nation until the end of the latter’s term. Mbeki did nothing to prevent Mandela from using his personal influence to secure Xanana Gusmao’s release and to allow him to live in exile in South Africa in June 1999. Securing Xanana’s release proved to be Mandela’s final act as president. A mere 2 days after Xanana landed in South Africa, Mbeki took his oath as President of South Africa.

Mbeki wanted to adopt a more pragmatic and realistic foreign policy. The first test of this came in July 1999 when the Singapore Settlement was to be put to a vote at the UN Security Council. One of Mbeki’s first acts as president was that to pressure President of Namibia Sam Nujoma, Namibia being a Non-Permanent Member of the Security Council that year and the nation to the immediate north of South Africa, to vote in favor of the Singapore Settlement. Namibia’s economy was still largely reliant on South Africa’s and the fact that Namibia was involved in the Second Congo War. Nujoma ordered the Namibian delegation at the UN to vote in favor of the Singapore Settlement.

Word that Mbeki had pressured Namibia got back to Mandela. The now-former president expressed his disappointment in what Mbeki had done to which the latter insisted that good relations with Indonesia was in South Africa’s interests. Xanana was gracious enough to say that the policy was the government’s, not Mandela’s.

---
Ok, another one of these bad boys down. Some notes:
-It’s going to be a running thing ITTL that Indonesia finally got the East Timor issue settled because the world’s attention was on Yugoslavia and Kosovo as well as the Kargil War.

-Some butterfly wings hitting Portugal and yes, that’s the present OTL UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres ending his PM-ship a full 3 years early.

-In OTL, the UK, and the EU, issued an arms sale embargo as a result of the violence after the East Timor independence vote. This doesn’t happen ITTL.

-One thing that is often forgotten, given that the focus is on Southeast Asia, was that the Asian Financial Crisis had an impact in Russia. At the same time, I thought that it would be unrealistic if Indonesia being able to get some leniency in its dealings with the IMF does not get recognized elsewhere. I thought that Russia, which had a prime minister with an USSR and KGB background, would be a nation which would try this trick.

But the consequence of Primakov getting some leniency by the IMF is him handling the economy better, the Russian economy showing signs of recovery faster, and him not being removed as prime minister by Yeltsin as he did in OTL May 1999.

Primakov’s steps not to get dismissed in May 1999 is based on https://books.google.co.id/books?id...nepage&q=What if Primakov, not Putin,&f=false
 
The World Circa November 1999 (The Americas)
The World Circa November 1999 (The Americas)

South America:
Brazil:

The crisis which struck Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Russia arrived in Brazil in September 1998 as investors, increasingly seeing emerging markets as a risk, began to pull their money out of Brazil. The Brazilian government moved to defend their Real exchange rate which was pegged to the US Dollar but this had little effect as funds and foreign exchange left Brazil as the Real currency began to lose its value. The government announced that it will be seeking assistance from the IMF, a move which was responded to positively by the IMF and the US, but that what concrete steps will be taken would have to wait. It was only after the Presidential Election in October 1998 and after receiving confirmation that he had been re-elected, President Fernando Henrique Cardoso began to tackle the issue of solving the crisis.

Negotiations had been tougher than expected that month. The IMF had mandated spending cuts and tax increases to boost revenue and cut Brazil’s deficit. These had included increases to taxes on financial transactions, payroll taxes of civil servants, and social security. Cardoso accepted the spending cuts and the tax increase on financial transactions but refused to increase payroll tax and social security, arguing that that would be unpopular and risk social unrest.

IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus dug in his heels but found that the US Department of Treasury and even the White House was wavering. The argument that perhaps Brazil should not be pushed too hard gained currency when precedent exists in Indonesia and Russia for an IMF package that still gave leniency to the nation asking for aid. An agreement was signed in November 1998 which kept the markets and the populace happy but which reminded Camdessus that eventually he had to lay down the law.

In January 1999, Cardoso followed up his agreement with the IMF by floating the currency. Not in the agreement with the IMF but one which does not contradict the IMF’s policy stance. With the policy in place, Cardoso braced Brazil for a rough 1999.

Argentina:
Brazil’s devaluation brought crisis to Argentina. Brazil was Argentina’s main export market but Brazil’s currency being devalued meant that Argentina’s currency, which was pegged to the US Dollar on a 1 Peso=1 Dollar basis, was all of a sudden less competitive than that of its export market. This combined with a debt crisis occurring at the same time began to slow down Argentina’s economy.

1999 was an election year. President Carlos Menem whose government had implemented that 1 Peso=1 Dollar policy and who had embraced a liberal economic policy was term limited. Menem’s Justicialist Party turned to Governor of Buenos Aires Province and Former Vice President Eduardo Duhalde as its presidential nominee. Duhalde’s opponent was Mayor of Buenos Aires City Fernando De La Rua, supported by the Alliance for Work, Justice, and Education.

The campaign became a tricky three-way dance. Menem continued to nurse an ambition for a third term and did Duhalde no favors by calling De La Rua “boring”, a label which De La Rua pinned on his chest with honor. Duhalde, seeing that De La Rua said that he will continue Menem’s policy of a pegged currency, made a gambit by saying that he will review all present economic policies and depart from it if necessary if elected. He purposefully avoided specifics but said that the present economic policies “brought us here”, in the process creating a breach with Menem and giving him a chance to campaign as his own man.

In the election held on 24th October 1999, Duhalde emerged as the winner beating De La Rua with 44% of the votes to 42%. Menem flexed his muscles by putting his support behind candidate and former Minister of Economy Domingo Cavallo who ended up with 14% of the votes. The President-Elect prepared for office, which he will assume formally in December 1999, and began sending feelers to the IMF for assistance.

Camdessus gritted his teeth when he watched Duhalde pledged spending cuts but said he cannot commit to anything that will cause unrest as well asking for the same “leniency” that the IMF had shown to “Brazil, Russia, and another one” recently. It seems watered down IMF prescriptions were becoming the rule rather than the exception these days and that the IMF needs to lay down the law. If only he could enforce the IMF’s will in Indonesia then he could enforce it with Russia, Brazil, and Argentina.

Suriname:
The small South American nation, with a sizeable Javanese population, has been identified as a gateway for Indonesia to increase trade with the South America and Central America.

Mexico:
In 1998, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo visited Mexico to sign an Agreement on Scientific and Technical Cooperation with Secretary of Commerce and Industry Herminio Blanco Mendoza. Siswono also got the chance to meet with President Ernesto Zedillo to convey President Try Sutrisno’s greetings. Try finally got to meet Zedillo in person at the 1998 APEC Summit in Kuala Lumpur.

“There's things I had to attend to on the home front, otherwise I would’ve gone and visited Mexico myself”, said Try “Not to say that I haven’t been paying attention to international developments.”

Canada:
Prime Minister Jean Chretien continued to be an enthusiastic proponent of closer bilateral and trade relations between Indonesia and Canada even as there continued to be questions about whether or not Try Sutrisno would be more observant of human rights than Soeharto. Minister of National Defense Art Eggleton and Minister of Foreign Affairs Lloyd Axworthy had said that whether Soeharto or Try, they have made it more complicated for weapons to be exported from Canada.

During the G8 Summit in Germany in June 1999, Chretien and Japan’s Keizo Obuchi were asked to speak about Indonesia given that they were leaders who had spent the most amount of time with Indonesia and Try at the summit. Chretien listed Indonesia’s credentials: largest country in ASEAN, former Non-Aligned Movement Chairman, former APEC host, most populous Muslim country in the world, population of nearly 200 million, and now looking likely to be in position to be the first Southeast Asian country to get out of the Asian Financial Crisis.

“If you haven’t already, you should start including Indonesia in your calculations”, concluded Chretien.


United States of America:
The week the UN Security Council passed a resolution on East Timor’s becoming a Special Administrative Region of Indonesia, President Bill Clinton accompanied by Vice President Al Gore, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and White House Chief of Staff John Podesta to talk about the Kargil War going on between India and Pakistan as well as the situation in Yugoslavia and Kosovo. It was only then that the discussion turned to Indonesia. Clinton asked what would be next for Indonesia.

Permanent Members:
Yes: United States of America, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China
No: -
Abstentions: -

Non-Permanent Members:
Yes: Argentina, Canada, Malaysia, Bahrain, Namibia, Slovenia, and Gabon
No: -
Abstentions: Netherlands, Brazil, and Gambia

Total:
Yes: 12
No: 0
Abstentions: 3

“He’ll continue to look inwards so long as he has the Asian Financial Crisis to keep him and Indonesia occupied”, said Albright of Try “But the data we’ve received from our Jakarta Embassy indicates that their economy has turned a corner and provided they continue with their current policies, they’re due to be the first nation in Southeast Asia to have overcome the crisis.”

“And then when they get out of their crisis?” asked Clinton.

“Thus far Try has delegated foreign policy to the Vice President, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and a few of his other ministers. I supposed it wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that he will pay more attention to foreign policy.”

---
Obviously, Indonesia not being as powerful or influential as USA, the butterflies don't spill over into other countries' borders as easily. The further one gets from Indonesia, the less and less things there are to be said about what is happening in a certain country.

One of the reasons I wanted to do these updates is to give background why Camdessus is starting to be a hardass with Indonesia as regards the IMF's policy prescriptions. And that's when I hit the idea of Camdessus wants to be a hardass on Indonesia because Indonesia getting some leniency has led to Russia, Brazil, and Argentina all asking for leniency when they're asking for IMF help.

Okay so the final one of this "around the world" trip is done, I'll try to do more of these in between the main updates so that things don't "pile up" in terms of developments in foreign affair, and it's time to go back to Indonesia.
 
76: Not Big Enough For Both of Them
30th November 1999:
Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja has laughed off the idea that if there was economic recovery, credit should belong to Soeharto.

“The President has abolished clove monopoly, the ineffective National Car policy, and gotten the BLBI recipients to repay the bailout money they’ve received from the government”, said Sarwono “If President Soeharto looks good, it would be because he’s lucky he has President Try to clean up after him.”

1st December 1999:

After taking a day off, President Try Sutrisno began conducting his duties again, starting with a breakfast with Vice President JB Sumarlin. Sumarlin agreed with the President’s strategy of delaying to take sides in the fight for the IMF Managing Director’s position and waiting until there’s definitive result on economic growth for 1999.

Sumarlin also reports that the government’s close on concluding amendments to all 26 electricity contracts signed between private businesses and the PLN since 1994 which has put undue financial burdens on the government.

2nd December 1999:
Speaking at a P4 Training Session at the University of Indonesia, Chairman of BP-7 Soegiarto declared that the ideological challenge for Pancasila remain numerous. Soegiarto identified those “seeking to divide the nation through sectarianism and religious identities with the aim of replacing Pancasila with a religion”.

He announced that it will be the government’s strategy next year to focus on university campuses in terms of P4 Training because it is here that such “damaging mindsets” have begun to take root.

3rd December 1999:
The President had Friday Prayer and Lunch with Chairman of DPR Harmoko. Harmoko spoke about how the Telecommunications Bill was doing in the DPR and reported that there was questioning from those formerly of the Hartono Caucus but not obstructionism.

“Then we should get this bill and as many other bills as we can passed before this peace comes to an end, Mr. Chairman”, said Try.

“There’s no doubt they’re making sure that there is peace but after Tutut installs as many of her supporters as possible as Chairmen in the provincial branches, I think hostilities will resume”, explained Harmoko “I hope you have a gameplan, Mr. President.”

5th December 1999:
Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut Soeharto along with the entire Soeharto family paid their respects to Soeharto and Mrs. Soeharto’s tombs in Solo, Central Java today to mark both the 2nd Anniversary of Soeharto’s death and to pay respects to elders’ tombs prior to the start of Ramadan. Governor of Central Java Prabowo Subianto was there with them and he took the opportunity to speak to Tutut.

“Something’s wrong with the Golkar Branch in this Province, Mbak”, said Prabowo “I thought we had them under control but in recent months they’ve gotten their spirit back again. Something’s not right.”

“What do you mean they're getting their spirit back?” asked Tutut.

“They’re getting on me about how Central Java’s economic recovery wouldn’t have been possible without the President’s policies” said Prabowo.

6th December 1999:
Try met with Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad. The minister presented to the President about the Draft Budget, due to be delivered next month at the DPR, and its latest developments. There was something else that weighed on his mind.

“Mr. President, I’ve been summoned as a witness for Tommy Soeharto’s trial by the prosecutors”, said Mar’ie “What I’ve got to say may reflect badly on your predecessor. Can I ask for your advice.”

“Tell them what you know”, replied Try “This is a legal matter, not a political one.”

7th December 1999:
At the Aceh Provincial DPRD Building accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat and in the presence of Governor of Aceh Syamsuddin Mahmud, the President signed the Special Administrative Region of Aceh Bill into Law. The event took placed on the 40th anniversary of the formation of the Province of Aceh.

After the signing ceremony, Try delivered a speech to the Aceh DPRD in which he said among other things:
“1999 has been the year in which the Central Government re-examined its delegation of responsibilities with the regional governments, re-arranged the share of the revenues to be received to regional governments including allocating shares of the LNG revenues to Aceh and more importantly, provided legal basis to our existing 3 Special Administrative Regions and adding 2 more Special Administrative Regions. We hope that these steps and the fulfillment of these steps will make all 27 provinces and all 301 regencies and municipalities feel a sense of belonging and a sense of being a part of this beloved and great Republic of ours.”

8th December 1999:
At Grand Hyatt Hotel, the President opened the Infastructure Summit. The summit was the brainchild of Chairman of KADIN Aburizal Bakrie. The President attended accompanied by Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono and Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar.

Try delivered the keynote speech, stating to the audience both domestic and foreign alike that infrastructure development must necessarily be opened because the nation’s size and the large task of providing infrastructure, infrastructure development must necessarily be opened to the private sector. Try said that it was his intention to give private investors larger shares of projects in Java so that he could direct the government’s funds to eastern Indonesia.

This being the first day of Ramadan, the President hosted a fast breaking at the Presidential Palace attended by cabinet ministers, heads of the agencies, and the top brass of ABRI. Delivering his speech to all those present, Try called upon the nation to use Ramadan to contemplate what the nation had gone through in recent times and draw lessons from it.

9th December 1999:
The President arrived at Bandung at the head of two full buses containing the attendees of the Infrastructure Summit. Accompanied by Soedradjad Djiwandono, Rachmat Witoelar, Governor of West Java Muzani Syukur, and Commander of the West Java Regional Military Command Agus Wirahadikusumah, Try inaugurated the Pasupati Flyover Bridge. In his speech, Try pointed out in all attendance that the bridge was partially funded by the Emir of Kuwait Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah’s grant. He said that now other projects are available to be funded by private investors.

The duet of Sumarlin and Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi today successfully concluded renegotiations of 26 electricity plants contract. It had been 17 months since the President first ordered Djiteng to renegotiate the contracts and 4 months since he asked the Vice President to be involved in the process as well. Djiteng, who got the duty of explaining what happened, was very pleased.

“Basically, these 26 electricity plants contracts signed by our state-owned PLN and these private companies have been renegotiated. Now these private companies have agreed to sell electricity to the PLN at a price that is fair and won’t put undue burden on the PLN and the State”, explained Djiteng.

“How did you get them to sell electricity to the PLN at a price that’s fair?” asked a reporter.

“We told them that we’d offer the projects to be taken over by the people who came to the Infrastructure summit”, said Djiteng.

10th December 1999:
In an interview with CNN, Managing Director of IMF Michel Camdessus explained that his resignation will take effect on 9th February 2000 and that Stanley Fischer will be the Acting Managing Director of the IMF. He scoffed when asked if he was being too harsh on Indonesia.

“This crisis is not just limited to Indonesia. It has affected other nations in Southeast Asia; it has affected South Korea and Russia; to some extent Brazil and Argentina are also suffering the effects of this crisis. We the IMF can’t operate to the maximum of our capacity if we’re constantly being faced negotiations and being asked for the same “leniencies” received by Indonesia. Most recently, I have the Prime Minister of Thailand asking for those leniences, I don’t what went on between him and the President of Indonesia in the past few weeks, but this can’t go on.”

11th December 1999:
Breaking his silence after 7 months of retirement, former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas wrote an article for The Jakarta Post saying that Indonesia has reached this point in its history because of Soeharto and Try’s collective efforts:

“President Try has protected Indonesia against the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis by taking the right steps and making the right decisions that much is true. But an important part of this Try-led economic recovery has got to be attributed to the leniency which he was able to receive from the IMF. This leniency was possible because nations like Singapore, Australia, and Japan took Indonesia seriously as a nation to provide backing to Indonesia in its dealings wih the IMF. This would not have been possible without President Soeharto’s commitment of economic development which in turn gave legitimacy to Indonesia as a nation in the international world. The Indonesia of today was, and is, a result of the two presidents’ collective effort.”

13th December 1999:
Mari’e Muhammad testified in front of Tommy Soeharto’s trial at the District Court of South Jakarta. The trial was closed to the public since September with news of developments in the trial conveyed to the public through a Department of Legal Affairs Spokesperson. On this occasion, the spokesperson was terse and brief in his statement to the press.

Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja, State Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno, Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso, Governor of East Java Haris Sudarno, and Governor of North Sumatra Syamsir Siregar held a joint press conference in which they announced that the government intends to import 70 buses next year which will take to the streets in Jakarta, Surabaya, and Medan. The plan represents the government’s commitment to improve public transport in cities.

14th December 1999:
Mar’ie Muhammad’s testimony was published online on a website ran by the Alliance of Independent Journalists (AJI), an organization of journalists not recognized by the government. The testimony was not so much damning on Tommy Soeharto as it was on his father. Mar’ie revealed that in the landswap deal between Bulog and Tommy’s Goro Batara Sakti corporation, Mar’ie said that based on a regulation he had signed as Minister of Finance, any landswap deal conducted by the government must go through a tender process. Soeharto had overruled that by ordering Mar’ie to approve the landswap deal in which his son had been involved in.

Later in the day, Minister of Legal Affairs Albert Hasibuan and Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra together with Edi Sudrajat fronted the press after meeting with the President. Hasibuan said that the content of the testimony as published by the website was correct and admitted that the Department of Legal Affairs Spokesperson had not done a good job conveying Mar’ie’s testimony. Oka Mahendra reaffirmed that the information was correct but said that the matter at hand is about but whether or not the information can cause disturbances in society.

When asked by a foreign journalist if this revelation will change the President’s stance towards his predecessor, Edi spoke up. “The President is in the business of recovering state money that the prosecutors are arguing may have been loss. He is not in the business of denouncing President Soeharto.”

15th December 1999:
Sumarlin and Minister of Civil Service Reform Kuntoro Mangkusubroto joined a busload of civil servants and staffers from the former’s office to go on a shopping trip to Tanah Abang. Speaking to the press corps covering the trip, Sumarlin reminded all civil servants and non-civil servants alike to spend their money these end-of-year holidays.

As the cameras panned around at the large amount of people crowding around Tanah Abang, Sumarlin was asked if this meant that the economy has recovered. Sumarlin said that he will leave it to the President to declare whether or not the economy has recovered or not.

16th December 1999:
Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi of Japan announced that he will be nominating Eisuke Sakakibara, former Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, for the IMF Managing Director’s positions. Eisuke had an anti-IMF view and was an advocate of the idea that there should be an Asian Monetary Fund to accommodate the needs of Asian nations.

At the Presidential Palace, Harsudiono Hartas met with the President. He introduced the two men he brought with him as:
*Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Afifuddin Thaib, who had been elected and sworn in as Governor of Bengkulu.
*Drs. Hasip Kalimuddin Syam who had been elected and sworn in as Governor of Jambi.

17th December 1999:
Commander of ABRI Wiranto and Army Chief of Staff Agum Gumelar emerged out of a meeting with the President to announce some command shuffles. The highlights and analysis included the following:

-Deputy Army Chief of Staff Tyasno Sudarto who began the year trying to establish himself as a rival chief of intelligence to Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo ended it being sidelined, replaced by Wiranto ally Djamari Chaniago as Deputy Army Chief of Staff. Djamari is promoted to lieutenant general.

-The President’s son-in-law Ryamizard Ryacudu departs for Jakarta to take up his new post as Assistant of Planning at the ABRI Headquarters.

-Col. Noer Muis, formerly Wiranto’s secretary is promoted to brigadier general and becomes the second in command at the Jakarta Regional Military Command.

-The shuffle is seen as a “cull” of the ABRI Academy Class of 1970. Out of that class, only Deputy Commander of ABRI Johnny Lumintang, ABRI Chief of General Staff Luhut Panjaitan, and Governor of the National Defense Institute Agus Widjojo remains.

-The President strengthens his hold over the Class of 1972. That class now holds 2 of the Regional Military Commands (East Java and Irian Jaya), the command of Kostrad, and both of Kostrad’s infantry divisions.

-The shuffle officially establishes ABRI Chief of Socio-Political Affairs Staff Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as a force in ABRI internal politics. 5 of the Regional Military Commands (Northern Sumatra, Southern Sumatra, West Java, Sulawesi, and Nusa Tenggara) now belong to 5 classmates from his ABRI Academy Class of 1973. Yudhoyono allies from the Class of 1974 and 1975 are also spread out over the top brass.

-Coming on Agum Gumelar’s 54th birthday and with exactly a year left until he reaches retirement age, the shuffle is seen as President Try’s vote of confidence in Agum who did well ensuring that all remained secure in Jakarta during the 1998 MPR Session. That said, the game of speculating of who will succeed him as Army Chief of Staff has already begun.

18th December 1999:
The President received Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid and Secretary of NU Ahmad Bagja at the Bogor Presidential Palace. It was the first time the two met with the President since their respective re-elections at the NU National Congress. Try was accompanied by Edi Sudrajat and Harsudiono Hartas while Wahid was accompanied by his daughter Yenny. The two exchanged pleasantries and talked about the present situation.

After the meeting, Wahid and his small delegation made the journey from the meeting room to his awaiting car. It was here that he asked Ahmad and Yenny to drop back so that Edi and Harsudiono could hold his hands.

“The President’s peace with Tutut, how long do you suppose that it will last?” asked Wahid.

“Well, the President said…” began Edi.

“I just met the fellow and I don’t need a repeat performance. I said what you two gentlemen think?” asked Wahid.

Edi and Harsudiono seemed taken aback by this question. They did not have a chance to respond when Wahid butted in.

“The MPR Session will be in March 2003, the election which will fill that honorable assembly with its delegates will be held what, middle of 2002 at the latest? The candidates for the legislative elections have to be finalized in the final 3 months of 2001…that means it’ll be around middle of 2001 that Try sits down with Tutut to determine who Golkar’s candidates will be in the legislative elections.”

“What are you trying to say, Gus?” asked Edi.

“There's less than 2 years until he and Tutut have to sit down and work on who will be Golkar's legislative candidates will be. The President’s delusional if he thinks that he can hold this peace. Tutut will use the provincial congresses to strengthen her hold on Golkar and this Operation Lifeboat of his that he just told me about…I don’t know if that will be enough.

A collection of Golkar members who are unambiguously loyal to Try won’t be of any help if Tutut will block their nomination and no matter how many branches whose functionaries Tutut control won’t be any use to her if there are those who are loyal to Try no matter how much she tries to intimidate them.

No, Try and Tutut have too much conflict already. The Provincial Congresses and Operation Lifeboat…this peace between Try and Tutut will not last and it will come to an end sooner rather than later.

The peace will end soon and once it does… there will be no more picking up the pieces.”

A tense silence descended as Wahid’s nose twitched gravely. Edi and Harsudiono waited for what Wahid was about to say.

“Golkar has become too small for both the President and the Chairwoman”, Wahid said “There is only enough room for one of them.”

Harsudiono sighed. This was precisely how he saw things.

“What do you want us to do, Gus?” asked Edi “How can we best help the President?”

“Right now the only thing that can be done is to let events play themselves out”, said Wahid.

---
At last, we're back in Indonesia. Lots of things going on as 1999 comes to an end ITTL. Everything from Tommy Soeharto’s trial, Soeharto’s legacy ITTL, the search for the IMF Managing Director’s position, and so on.

Mbak, which is what Prabowo calls Tutut, means Sister.

Gus, which is what Edi and Harsudiono calls Wahid, refers to Wahid’s nickname of Gus Dur.

Eisuke Sakakibara’s nomination for the IMF Managing Director’s position is as OTL. https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Looking-back-at-the-Asian-IMF-concept2
 
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